VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Bayern München preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Volkswagen Arena Yesterday - 4:30 PM
Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg WOB
FC Bayern München FCB
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 4:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

VfL Wolfsburg face a daunting task at the Volkswagen Arena, hosting Bundesliga leaders FC Bayern München in this Regular Season fixture of the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting rock-bottom in 16th place, Wolfsburg are desperate for points to climb out of the relegation mire, but they confront a Bayern side powering at full throttle with a perfect power score of 100 against Wolfsburg's 74.93. The visitors boast a commanding 25.1-point power advantage, underscoring their dominance. Form tells a stark tale too: Bayern's 35.67 rating towers over Wolfsburg's meager 10.28, reflecting recent struggles for the hosts. Bayern's top-table position contrasts sharply with Wolfsburg's plight, setting the stage for a mismatch where the champions aim to extend their lead. Without recent outing details, focus shifts to Bayern's relentless machine-like efficiency against Wolfsburg's fragility. Set-piece data remains elusive with low confidence proxies, but Bayern's overall superiority shines through.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Bayern hold a 25.1-point power advantage over Wolfsburg, with scores of 100 versus 74.93.
  • Form: Bayern's form score stands at 35.67, far superior to Wolfsburg's 10.28.
  • Squad: Bayern top the Bundesliga at 1st place, while Wolfsburg sit bottom in 16th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used and no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: VfL Wolfsburg 20.7% (Δ-0.2%) | Draw 20.5% (Δ-0.1%) | FC Bayern München 58.8% (Δ+0.4%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
VfL Wolfsburg D. Hecking
D. Hecking
VS
FC Bayern München V. Kompany
V. Kompany
0.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 L
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heidenheim Rank: 72 D
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 86 W
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 W
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 33
33
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home VfL Wolfsburg
20.69%
Draw
20.48%
Away FC Bayern München
58.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
VfL Wolfsburg
-0.23%
Draw
-0.12%
FC Bayern München
+0.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.93
100
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
VfL Wolfsburg
FC Bayern München
Power Score
74.93
100
League Position
16
1
Global Rank
118
1

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
VfL Wolfsburg — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Bayern München — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) VfL Wolfsburg FC Bayern München

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

VfL Wolfsburg WOB Home
41 matches
FC Bayern München FCB Away
Match Record
3
Wins
33
5
Draws
5
33
Losses
3
Goals
37
Goals Scored
110
110
Goals Conceded
37
-73
Goal Difference
+73
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:08:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Grabara
Poland
1 K. Grabara
J. Belocian
France
6 J. Belocian
D. Vavro
Slovakia
3 D. Vavro
K. Koulierakis
Greece
4 K. Koulierakis
S. Kumbedi Nseke
France
26 S. Kumbedi Nseke
P. Wimmer
Austria
39 P. Wimmer
V. de Souza Costa
Brazil
5 V. de Souza Costa
C. Dannemann Eriksen
Denmark
24 C. Dannemann Eriksen
J. Mæhle
Denmark
21 J. Mæhle
A. Daghim
Denmark
11 A. Daghim
D. Pejcinovic
Germany
17 D. Pejcinovic
J. Urbig
Germany
40 J. Urbig
H. Ito
Japan
21 H. Ito
J. Tah
Germany
4 J. Tah
M. Kim
South Korea
3 M. Kim
J. Stanisic
Croatia
44 J. Stanisic
B. Sapoko Ndiaye
Senegal
39 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
A. Pavlović
Germany
45 A. Pavlović
J. Musiala
Germany
10 J. Musiala
L. Goretzka
Germany
8 L. Goretzka
K. Laimer
Austria
27 K. Laimer
N. Jackson
Senegal
11 N. Jackson

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Volkswagen Arena
Capacity
30000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jonas Weickenmeier
Christian Gittelmann
Florian Lechner
Matthias Jöllenbeck

Lineup

Referee : Matthias Jöllenbeck

Starting XI ▼

1
Kamil Grabara
Kamil Grabara Goalkeeper
6.87
3
Denis Vavro
Denis Vavro Defender
6.64
4
Konstantinos Koulierakis
Konstantinos Koulierakis Defender
6.78
6
Jeanuël Belocian
Jeanuël Belocian Defender
6.7
5
Vinicius de Souza Costa
Vinicius de Souza Costa Midfielder
6.76
21
Joakim Maehle
Joakim Maehle Midfielder
6.72
24
Christian Eriksen
Christian Eriksen Midfielder
7.01
26
Saël Kumbedi
Saël Kumbedi Midfielder
6.53
39
Patrick Wimmer
Patrick Wimmer Midfielder
6.77
11
Adam Daghim
Adam Daghim Attacker
6.69
17
Dzenan Pejcinovic
Dzenan Pejcinovic Attacker
6.76
Referee : Matthias Jöllenbeck

Starting XI ▼

40
Jonas Urbig
Jonas Urbig Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Min-jae Kim
Min-jae Kim Defender
7.12
4
Jonathan Tah
Jonathan Tah Defender
7.04
21
Hiroki Ito
Hiroki Ito Defender
6.82
44
Josip Stanisic
Josip Stanisic Defender
7
8
Leon Goretzka
Leon Goretzka Midfielder
7.15
39
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye Midfielder
6.7
45
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Aleksandar Pavlovic Midfielder
7.11
10
Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala Attacker
6.98
11
Nicolas Jackson
Nicolas Jackson Attacker
6.83
27
Konrad Laimer
Konrad Laimer Attacker
6.99

CONCLUSION

Bayern München arrive as overwhelming favorites, their elite power rating and scorching form poised to overwhelm a beleaguered Wolfsburg outfit mired at the foot of the table. The hosts' home advantage at Volkswagen Arena offers scant comfort against a Bayern machine that's first in the league and brimming with quality. Expect the visitors to control possession, exploit transitions, and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Wolfsburg. While the Wolves will scrap for survival, Bayern's superior metrics across the board point to a comfortable victory, potentially extending their lead at the summit. This clash underscores the Bundesliga's chasm between elite and strugglers.