Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük preview

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu Yesterday - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Kocaelispor welcomes Fatih Karagümrük to İsmetpaşa Stadyumu in a crucial Super Lig regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting comfortably in 10th place, the hosts boast a power score of 57.26, edging out the visitors' 55.54 by 1.7 points, marking them as the stronger side overall. However, form tells a different story, with Karagümrük's 15.22 rating surpassing Kocaelispor's 12.06, suggesting momentum in the away camp despite their 18th position. Home advantage at this fortress-like venue could prove decisive, especially as Kocaelispor aims to solidify mid-table security while Karagümrük fights relegation shadows. Lacking detailed efficiency or set-piece metrics due to unavailable xG data, the focus shifts to raw power and recent performances. Kocaelispor's structural superiority might shine through disciplined defending, but Karagümrük's hotter streak demands respect in transitions.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Kocaelispor possesses a 1.7-point power advantage with a 57.26 score over Fatih Karagümrük's 55.54.
  • Form: Fatih Karagümrük leads in form with a 15.22 score compared to Kocaelispor's 12.06.
  • Squad: Kocaelispor occupies 10th in the Super Lig standings ahead of 18th-placed Fatih Karagümrük.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data is available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition play details remain unavailable in current datasets.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics show low confidence with no xG data for Kocaelispor or Fatih Karagümrük.
  • xVariable: xG statistics are unavailable as the add-on is not enabled.
  • Market: Kocaelispor 46.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.8% (Δ+0%) | Fatih Karagümrük 25.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
VS
Fatih Karagümrük A. Stanojević
A. Stanojević
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 65 L
Göztepe Rank: 72 D
Galatasaray Rank: 86 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 76 D
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 D
Eyüpspor Rank: 61 L
Konyaspor Rank: 71 L
Rizespor Rank: 70 W
Kayserispor Rank: 63 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kocaelispor
46.75%
Draw
27.84%
Away Fatih Karagümrük
25.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.26
55.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
Power Score
57.26
55.54
League Position
10
18
Global Rank
327
411

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kocaelispor Fatih Karagümrük

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Home
1 matches
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:09:19+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
83 S. Öztaşdelen
A. Oğuz
22 A. Oğuz
A. Dijksteel
2 A. Dijksteel
M. Da Silva Cafumana
14 M. Da Silva Cafumana
M. Haïdara
21 M. Haïdara
M. Susoho
20 M. Susoho
J. Nonge Boende
98 J. Nonge Boende
H. Keita
8 H. Keita
C. Keles
70 C. Keles
S. Dursun
19 S. Dursun
D. Agyei
7 D. Agyei
I. Grbić
13 I. Grbić
F. Mladenović
25 F. Mladenović
I. Lichnovsky Osorio
3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
D. Biraschi
4 D. Biraschi
R. Sousa Esgaio
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
B. Kalayci
72 B. Kalayci
C. Kranevitter
5 C. Kranevitter
B. Özcan
8 B. Özcan
A. Traore
88 A. Traore
T. Cukur
21 T. Cukur
W. Shavy
80 W. Shavy

General Information

Date & Time
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu
Capacity
34829
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
6.91
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Attacker
6.59
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun Centre Forward
6.74
70
Can Keleş
Can Keleş Attacker
6.55
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Central Midfield
6.78
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Right Back
6.69
14
Show
Show Left Back
6.8
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Central Midfield
6.63
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho Central Midfield
6.65
21
Massadio Haïdara
Massadio Haïdara Left Back
6.81
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Right Back
6.95

Starting XI ▼

13
Ivo Grbic
Ivo Grbic Goalkeeper
7.08
72
Barış Kalaycı
Barış Kalaycı Midfielder
6.69
88
Ahmed Traore
Ahmed Traore Midfielder
6.54
21
Tiago Çukur
Tiago Çukur Attacker
6.72
80
Shavy Babicka
Shavy Babicka Attacker
6.7
3
Igor Lichnovsky
Igor Lichnovsky Left Back
6.91
5
Matías Kranevitter
Matías Kranevitter Central Midfield
6.58
47
Ricardo Esgaio
Ricardo Esgaio Right Back
6.56
4
Davide Biraschi
Davide Biraschi Right Back
6.55
8
Berkay Özcan
Berkay Özcan Central Midfield
6.69
25
Filip Mladenovic
Filip Mladenovic Left Back
6.77

CONCLUSION

Kocaelispor's home strength and higher league position position them favorably against struggling Fatih Karagümrük, whose better form offers a glimmer of hope. The 1.7-point power edge underscores the hosts' overall quality, likely tipping scales in a tightly contested affair at İsmetpaşa Stadyumu. Without granular xG or set-piece insights, expect a battle hinging on execution in open play and defensive resilience. Karagümrük must capitalize on momentum to upset the apple cart, but Kocaelispor's structural benefits suggest control. Mid-table stability beckons for the hosts in this Super Lig encounter.