Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest preview

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Villa Park Thu, 7 May - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Aston VillaAVL
Nottingham ForestNFO
KICKOFF : Thu, 7 May - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 1

CONTEXT

Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest in Europa League (Semi-finals) at Villa Park. Power ranking favours Aston Villa by 1.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aston Villa possess a 1.7-point power advantage over Nottingham Forest, enhanced by home venue at Villa Park.
  • Form: Nottingham Forest hold a slight form edge with 43.56 versus Aston Villa's 41.72.
  • Squad: No specific squad updates available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable due to absent data.
  • Transition: Transition play analysis limited by lack of detailed metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable as xG not enabled, using low-confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for both teams.
  • Market: Aston Villa 55.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.7% (Δ+0%) | Nottingham Forest 20.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
2.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: 87 L
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Bologna Rank: 78 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: 91 W
Porto Rank: 87 W
Porto Rank: 88 D
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 80 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
55.9%
Draw
23.69%
Away Nottingham Forest
20.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.27
88.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Power Score
90.27
88.59
League Position
2
13
Global Rank
11
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa Nottingham Forest

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
15 matches
Nottingham Forest NFO Away
Match Record
7
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
7
Goals
28
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
28
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:01:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Ortega Moreno
Germany
27 S. Ortega Moreno
N. Williams
Wales
3 N. Williams
F. Rodrigues
Brazil
4 F. Rodrigues
N. Milenković
Serbia
31 N. Milenković
T. Olaoluwa Aina
Nigeria
34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
M. Gibbs-White
England
10 M. Gibbs-White
E. Anderson
England
8 E. Anderson
N. Domínguez
Argentina
16 N. Domínguez
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
Jamaica
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
C. Wood
New Zealand
11 C. Wood
I. da Cruz
Brazil
19 I. da Cruz

General Information

Date & Time
May 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 1
Stadium
Villa Park
Capacity
42640
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Glenn Nyberg
Mahbod Beigi
Andreas Söderkvist
Rade Obrenović

Lineup

Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
7.12
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
6.7
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
7.08
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
6.83
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen Defender
6.78
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.23
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde Midfielder
6.75
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
7.04
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Attacker
6.95
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Attacker
6.88
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
6.81
Referee : Glenn Nyberg

Starting XI ▼

27
Stefan Ortega
Stefan Ortega Goalkeeper
6.94
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Defender
7.04
4
Morato
Morato Defender
6.89
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.95
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Defender
6.92
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
7.18
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Midfielder
6.98
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder
7.02
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder
7.14
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
6.79
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
7.1

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Aston Villa holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Aston Villa a 1.7-point edge. External projection is Aston Villa 55.7%, draw 23.8%, and Nottingham Forest 20.5%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.