Lech Poznań vs Arka Gdynia preview

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Enea stadion Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
KICKOFF : Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Lech Poznań host Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa (Regular Season) at Enea stadion. Domestically, Lech Poznań sit 1th in the table while Arka Gdynia are 17th. Power ranking favours Lech Poznań by 21.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lech Poznań tops the Ekstraklasa table in 1st while Arka Gdynia languishes in 17th.
  • Form: Lech enters with a strong form score of 32.17, surpassing Arka Gdynia's weak 12.56.
  • Squad: Lech's squad power rates at 71.69, dwarfing Arka's 49.83.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data limited due to lack of recent outing details.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable as xG add-on not enabled, using low-confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for both teams.
  • Market: Lech Poznań 70.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 17.8% (Δ+0%) | Arka Gdynia 11.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
VS
Arka Gdynia D. Banasik
D. Banasik
1.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 W
Katowice Rank: 66 D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 65 D
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 63 L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 9 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lech Poznań
70.58%
Draw
17.81%
Away Arka Gdynia
11.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.69
49.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lech Poznań
Arka Gdynia
Power Score
71.69
49.83
League Position
1
17
Global Rank
170
639

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lech Poznań Arka Gdynia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Home
19 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
9
Draws
9
4
Losses
6
Goals
22
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
22
+8
Goal Difference
-8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:03:02+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Mrozek
41 B. Mrozek
J. Vieira Pereira
2 J. Vieira Pereira
W. Mońka
27 W. Mońka
A. Milić
16 A. Milić
M. Gurgul
15 M. Gurgul
D. Håkans
11 D. Håkans
A. Kozubal
43 A. Kozubal
T. Ouma
6 T. Ouma
L. Bengtsson
14 L. Bengtsson
M. Ishak
9 M. Ishak
P. Wålemark
10 P. Wålemark
J. Grobelny
1 J. Grobelny
D. Gojny
94 D. Gojny
M. Marcjanik
29 M. Marcjanik
S. Szota
3 S. Szota
M. Navarro Ceciliano
2 M. Navarro Ceciliano
A. Nguiamba
10 A. Nguiamba
L. Perea Hernández
6 L. Perea Hernández
N. Rusyn
31 N. Rusyn
S. Kerk
37 S. Kerk
D. Kocyla
11 D. Kocyla
V. Gutkovskis
19 V. Gutkovskis

General Information

Date & Time
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Enea stadion
Capacity
42837
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bartosz Frankowski

Expected Lineup

Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
6.9
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans Midfielder
6.45
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
6.78
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
7.25
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Attacker
6.73
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Right Back
7.21
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Left Back
6.91
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Right Back
6.96
16
Antonio Milic
Antonio Milic Left Back
6.96
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Central Midfield
6.9
6
Timothy Ouma
Timothy Ouma Central Midfield
6.69
Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Jedrzej Grobelny
Jedrzej Grobelny Goalkeeper
6.63
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Centre Forward
6.87
6
Luis Perea
Luis Perea Defensive Midfield
6.49
3
Serafin Szota
Serafin Szota Right Back
6.55
10
Aurélien Nguiamba
Aurélien Nguiamba Defensive Midfield
6.58
37
Sebastian Kerk
Sebastian Kerk Attacking Midfield
7.05
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Left Back
6.72
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla Right Wing
6.68
31
Nazariy Rusyn
Nazariy Rusyn Left Wing
6.73
2
Marc Navarro
Marc Navarro Right Back
6.91
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny Left Back
6.78

CONCLUSION

Lech Poznań stand poised to capitalize on their overwhelming advantages in power, form, and league position against a beleaguered Arka Gdynia. The hosts' 21.9-point edge and top-table status suggest control from the outset at Enea Stadion. Arka's poor form and bottom-half standing offer little optimism for an upset. With no standout weaknesses exposed in available metrics, Lech should dictate tempo and secure vital points. This fixture profiles as a routine home win, reinforcing Lech's title credentials in the Ekstraklasa.