Avellino vs Modena preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Avellino AVE
Modena MOD
KICKOFF : Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Avellino host Modena in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi. Domestically, Avellino sit 10th in the table while Modena are 6th. Power ranking favours Modena by 6.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Modena enters as the stronger side with a 6.7-point power advantage over Avellino.
  • Form: Avellino holds a better form score of 15.39 compared to Modena's 10.06.
  • Squad: Avellino ranks 10th domestically, while Modena sits 6th in Serie B.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable due to limited underlying data.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece performance data unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent for both Avellino and Modena.
  • Market: Avellino 60.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.5% (Δ+0%) | Modena 16.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
VS
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: 54 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Mantova Rank: 53 W
Catanzaro Rank: 61 D
Palermo Rank: 65 L
Sampdoria Rank: 54 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: 47 W
Monza Rank: 66 L
Frosinone Rank: 65 L
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Südtirol Rank: 51 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 3 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Avellino
60.33%
Draw
23.52%
Away Modena
16.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.15
57.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Avellino
Modena
Power Score
51.15
57.8
League Position
10
6
Global Rank
696
562

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Avellino Opponent-weighted form score
Modena Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Avellino Modena

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Avellino AVE Home
13 matches
Modena MOD Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
20
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:03:46+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
G. Daffara
30 G. Daffara
T. Cancellotti
29 T. Cancellotti
P. Enrici
56 P. Enrici
A. Izzo
4 A. Izzo
F. Missori
2 F. Missori
D. Sounas
24 D. Sounas
L. Palmiero
6 L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
39 M. Besaggio
M. Palumbo
20 M. Palumbo
C. Patierno
9 C. Patierno
T. Biasci
14 T. Biasci
M. Pezzolato
22 M. Pezzolato
B. Nieling
20 B. Nieling
S. Nador
19 S. Nador
D. Tonoli
77 D. Tonoli
F. Zampano
7 F. Zampano
N. Pyyhtiä
18 N. Pyyhtiä
F. Gerli
16 F. Gerli
Y. Massolin
17 Y. Massolin
L. Zanimacchia
98 L. Zanimacchia
M. De Luca
99 M. De Luca
P. Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes
11 P. Lobo Peixoto Mineiro Mendes

General Information

Date & Time
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Capacity
26542
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Di Marco
Federico Votta
Matteo Pressato

Expected Lineup

Referee : Davide Di Marco

Starting XI

30
Giovanni Daffara
Giovanni Daffara Goalkeeper
6.86
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci Attacker
6.92
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
6.59
2
Filippo Missori
Filippo Missori Left Back
6.8
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Left Back
7.17
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Central Midfield
6.82
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Attacking Midfield
6.87
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Central Midfield
6.98
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Right Back
6.67
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Central Midfield
6.79
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Right Back
6.72
Referee : Davide Di Marco

Starting XI

22
Michele Pezzolato
Michele Pezzolato Goalkeeper
7.12
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
6.78
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder
6.94
11
Pedro Mendes
Pedro Mendes Attacker
6.71
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker
6.83
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin Central Midfield
6.96
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli Central Midfield
6.85
18
Niklas Pyyhtiä
Niklas Pyyhtiä Central Midfield
6.76
19
Steven Nador
Steven Nador Centre Back
6.97
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Left Back
6.93
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Right Back
7.13

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Modena holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Modena a 6.7-point edge. External projection is Avellino 59.1%, draw 24.6%, and Modena 16.3%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.