Südtirol vs Juve Stabia preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Marco Druso Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Südtirol SUD
Juve Stabia JUV
KICKOFF : Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Südtirol host Juve Stabia in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Marco Druso. Domestically, Südtirol sit 15th in the table while Juve Stabia are 7th. Power ranking favours Juve Stabia by 5.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Juve Stabia enjoy a 5.1-point power advantage and occupy 7th place, ahead of 15th-placed Südtirol.
  • Form: Juve Stabia lead in form with a 16.67 score versus Südtirol's 5.06.
  • Squad: Power ratings indicate stronger overall squad quality for Juve Stabia at 56.52 over Südtirol's 51.46.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided in analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance unavailable due to lack of xG data and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: No xG-based variables available for this fixture.
  • Market: Südtirol 57.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.1% (Δ+0%) | Juve Stabia 16.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
VS
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Spezia Rank: 49 L
Modena Rank: 58 D
Cesena Rank: 53 D
Frosinone Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: 67 L
Pescara Rank: 48 D
Catanzaro Rank: 59 D
Cesena Rank: 53 W
Venezia Rank: 70 L
Spezia Rank: 52 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Südtirol
57.07%
Draw
26.08%
Away Juve Stabia
16.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.46
56.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Südtirol
Juve Stabia
Power Score
51.46
56.52
League Position
15
7
Global Rank
754
615

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Südtirol Opponent-weighted form score
Juve Stabia Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Südtirol Juve Stabia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Südtirol SUD Home
3 matches
Juve Stabia JUV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:03:53+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Adamonis
31 M. Adamonis
F. Veseli
34 F. Veseli
N. Pietrangeli
19 N. Pietrangeli
H. El Kaouakibi
94 H. El Kaouakibi
S. Davì
24 S. Davì
S. Molina
79 S. Molina
F. Tait
21 F. Tait
S. Tronchin
18 S. Tronchin
K. Zedadka
7 K. Zedadka
S. Merkaj
33 S. Merkaj
E. Pecorino
9 E. Pecorino
A. Confente
1 A. Confente
C. Dalle Mura
14 C. Dalle Mura
A. Giorgini
33 A. Giorgini
M. Bellich
6 M. Bellich
A. Cacciamani
77 A. Cacciamani
O. Correia
29 O. Correia
G. Leone
55 G. Leone
N. Mosti
98 N. Mosti
L. Carissoni
24 L. Carissoni
A. Okoro
90 A. Okoro
F. Maistro
37 F. Maistro

General Information

Date & Time
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Marco Druso
Capacity
5539
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Livio Marinelli
Mattia Politi
Paolo Bitonti
Riccardo Dasso

Expected Lineup

Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
6.73
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka Midfielder
6.63
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
6.93
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
6.93
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
6.65
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Central Midfield
6.76
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Right Back
6.57
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait Central Midfield
6.64
24
Simone Davi
Simone Davi Left Back
6.63
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Right Back
6.54
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Left Back
6.88
Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
6.82
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni Midfielder
6.82
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Midfielder
6.61
37
Fabio Maistro
Fabio Maistro Attacker
6.9
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro Attacker
6.68
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich Right Back
6.78
14
Christian Dalle Mura
Christian Dalle Mura Left Back
6.8
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia Central Midfield
6.83
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini Centre Back
6.39
55
Giuseppe Leone
Giuseppe Leone Central Midfield
6.94
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti Central Midfield
6.86

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Juve Stabia holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Juve Stabia a 5.1-point edge. External projection is Südtirol 61.5%, draw 22.9%, and Juve Stabia 15.7%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.