Cesena vs Calcio Padova preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Cesena CES
Calcio Padova PAD
KICKOFF : Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Cesena host Calcio Padova in Serie B (Regular Season) at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi. Domestically, Cesena sit 9th in the table while Calcio Padova are 13th. Power ranking favours Cesena by 4 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Cesena holds a structural advantage with a 52.95 power score and 4-point edge over Padova's 48.98.
  • Form: Padova edges form with a 16.22 score compared to Cesena's 15.28.
  • Squad: Cesena ranks 9th in the league, ahead of Padova in 13th position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Cesena 61.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 20.6% (Δ+0%) | Calcio Padova 17.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
VS
Calcio Padova R. Breda
R. Breda
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese Rank: 54 D
Sampdoria Rank: 52 D
Palermo Rank: 63 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 L
Südtirol Rank: 51 D
Catanzaro Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: 49 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 L
Reggiana Rank: 47 W
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Frosinone Rank: 68 L
Palermo Rank: 65 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 2 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cesena
61.84%
Draw
20.55%
Away Calcio Padova
17.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.95
48.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cesena
Calcio Padova
Power Score
52.95
48.98
League Position
9
13
Global Rank
709
790

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cesena Calcio Padova

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cesena CES Home
8 matches
Calcio Padova PAD Away
Match Record
4
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
4
Goals
10
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
10
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T00:04:20+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Siano
1 A. Siano
A. Ciofi
15 A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
19 G. Zaro
M. Mangraviti
24 M. Mangraviti
G. Frabotta
99 G. Frabotta
T. Berti
14 T. Berti
D. Bisoli
25 D. Bisoli
R. Ciervo
11 R. Ciervo
C. Shpendi
9 C. Shpendi
M. Olivieri
32 M. Olivieri
A. Cerri
7 A. Cerri
A. Sorrentino
22 A. Sorrentino
C. Pastina
58 C. Pastina
M. Perrotta
5 M. Perrotta
F. Belli
4 F. Belli
G. Favale
30 G. Favale
K. Varas Marcillo
7 K. Varas Marcillo
L. Crisetig
6 L. Crisetig
P. Fusi
8 P. Fusi
A. Capelli
17 A. Capelli
G. Caprari
24 G. Caprari
M. Bortolussi
20 M. Bortolussi

General Information

Date & Time
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
Capacity
20194
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alberto Arena
Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta
Carlo Rinaldi
Marco Emmanuele

Expected Lineup

Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Siano
Alessandro Siano Goalkeeper
7.26
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Centre Forward
7.01
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Attacking Midfield
6.71
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo Right Wing
6.84
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Defensive Midfield
7.02
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Right Back
6.8
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Right Back
7.07
24
Massimiliano Mangraviti
Massimiliano Mangraviti Left Back
6.79
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Defensive Midfield
6.84
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri Left Wing
6.69
99
Gianluca Frabotta
Gianluca Frabotta Left Back
6.9
Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

22
Alessandro Sorrentino
Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper
7.06
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli Midfielder
6.91
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale Midfielder
6.54
20
Mattia Bortolussi
Mattia Bortolussi Attacker
7.04
24
Gianluca Caprari
Gianluca Caprari Attacker
6.73
4
Francesco Belli
Francesco Belli Right Back
6.68
5
Marco Perrotta
Marco Perrotta Centre Back
6.92
7
Kevin Varas
Kevin Varas Central Midfield
6.86
6
Lorenzo Crisetig
Lorenzo Crisetig Central Midfield
6.75
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Central Midfield
6.79
58
Christian Pastina
Christian Pastina Left Back
6.98

CONCLUSION

Cesena enters as favorites thanks to their higher power score and home venue at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, where they can exploit Padova's lower league position. While Padova's form score offers a glimmer of hope, Cesena's overall strength suggests control in possession and chance creation. Expect the hosts to press their advantage early, testing Padova's defensive resolve. Mid-table stakes mean both will prioritize clean sheets, but Cesena's edge points to a narrow victory. Fans should anticipate a tactical affair with limited goals, hinging on key individual performances.