Sochi vs Krylya Sovetov preview

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht Tue, 21 Apr - 2:30 PM
Premier League
Sochi Sochi
2 1
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Marcelo Alves - 48', 90+9'
Goal
|
Goal
I. Oleynikov - 16'
|
Second yellow card S. Babkin 82'
Red Card T. Galdames 90+7'

CONTEXT

Sochi claimed a hard-fought 2-1 home victory against Krylya Sovetov, staging a comeback after trailing 0-1 at halftime. The hosts controlled possession at 58% to the visitors' 42%, gradually asserting dominance. The turning point came in the second half when Krylya Sovetov received two red cards, leaving them short-handed and vulnerable. Sochi, identified as the stronger team, capitalized on the numerical advantage to score twice and secure the win. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 100% in Sochi's favor, while efficiency remained in line with expectations. Market expectations aligned with the result, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card distortion heavily influenced the second-half proceedings, enabling Sochi's turnaround.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sochi's 2-1 win exhibited a significant 100% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations not assessable without data.
  • Event impact: Red cards to Krylya Sovetov altered second-half dynamics significantly.
  • Red card distortion: Two red cards to away team distorted the match, aiding Sochi's victory.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Moskalev
V. Moskalev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
M. Ivanov
M. Ivanov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
M. Cheremnykh
M. Cheremnykh
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
D. Mosyakin
D. Mosyakin
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
VS
Krylya Sovetov S. Bulatov
S. Bulatov
0.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.77
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sochi
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krylya Sovetov
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.11
16.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sochi
Krylya Sovetov
Power Score
17.11
16.8
League Position
16
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sochi Krylya Sovetov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.59
30.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.95
42.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sochi +1.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Krylya Sovetov -1.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Krylya Sovetov
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sochi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sochi Krylya Sovetov
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sochi Krylya Sovetov
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sochi
Krylya Sovetov
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sochi
vs
Krylya Sovetov
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sochi Krylya Sovetov
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sochi 0.28
Krylya Sovetov 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sochi Krylya Sovetov
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sochi 0.03
Krylya Sovetov 0.03
Sochi
Krylya Sovetov
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Sochi had peak pressure around 103'.
  • Sochi started the game with stronger pressure.
Sochi Pressure Krylya Sovetov Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Sochi reached the top pressure at 103' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sochi Sochi Home
8 matches
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Away
Match Record
0
Wins
8
0
Draws
0
8
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
4
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:01:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
M. Alves Santos
Brazil
33 M. Alves Santos
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
R. Magal
Substitution
Russia
28 R. Magal
M. Mukhin
Substitution
Russia
16 M. Mukhin
K. Kravtsov
Substitution
Russia
14 K. Kravtsov
A. Makarchuk
Russia
17 A. Makarchuk
R. Ezhov
Russia
29 R. Ezhov
V. Ilyin
Substitution
Russia
98 V. Ilyin
M. Ignatov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Ignatov
S. Pesyakov
Russia
30 S. Pesyakov
K. Pechenin
Belarus
2 K. Pechenin
R. Evgenyev
Russia
24 R. Evgenyev
A. Oroz
Croatia
5 A. Oroz
F. Peixoto Costanza
Brazil
22 F. Peixoto Costanza
S. Babkin
Russia
6 S. Babkin
M. Vityugov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Vityugov
I. Oleynikov
Russia
19 I. Oleynikov
I. Akhmetov
Substitution
Russia
77 I. Akhmetov
N. Rasskazov
Substitution
Russia
15 N. Rasskazov
A. Rahmanović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 A. Rahmanović

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 21, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium
Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht
Capacity
47659
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vladimir Moskalev
Mikhail Ivanov
Mikhail Cheremnykh
Dmitri Mosyakin

Statistics

Possession
Sochi
56%
Krylya Sovetov
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
8 Shots 2
74 Dangerous attacks 40
58 Possession 42
7 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 75
5 Substitutions 4
3 Injuries 1
12 Goal Attempts 7
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
11 Dribble Attempts 15
6 Successful Headers 18
7 Successful Dribbles 8
5 Goal Kicks 10
22 Throwins 12
1 Assists 1

Attacking

106 Attacks 65

Possession

39 Long Passes 45
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
16 Successful Long Passes 21
400 Successful Passes 299
484 Passes 369
83 Successful Passes Percentage 81

Defensive

4 Saves 4
44 Duels Won 52
17 Tackles 13
11 Interceptions 15

Build-up

42 Total Crosses 14
11 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Vladimir Moskalev

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
6.81
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
6.7
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
6.64
33
Marcelo Alves
Marcelo Alves Defender
2
6.53
14
Kirill Kravtsov
Kirill Kravtsov Midfielder
6.51
20
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Dmitriy Vasiljev
Midfielder64'
6.71
16
Maksim Mukhin
Maksim Mukhin Midfielder
6.6
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy
Midfielder82'
6.55
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk Midfielder
6.54
28
Ruslan Magal
Ruslan Magal Midfielder
6.46
23
Gustavo Furtado
Gustavo Furtado
Midfielder64'
6.65
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov Attacker
6.73
45
François Kamano
François Kamano
Attacker77'
6.71
29
Roman Ezhov
Roman Ezhov Attacker
6.5
98
Vladimir Iljin
Vladimir Iljin Attacker
6.77
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov
Attacker63'
6.55
Referee : Vladimir Moskalev

Starting XI ▼

30
S. Pesyakov
S. Pesyakov Goalkeeper
6.88
2
Kirill Pechenin
Kirill Pechenin Defender
6.7
5
D. Oroz
D. Oroz Defender
6.62
22
Fernando Costanza
Fernando Costanza Defender
6.83
24
R. Evgenyev
R. Evgenyev Defender
6.62
6
S. Babkin
S. Babkin Midfielder
6.68
8
M. Vityugov
M. Vityugov Midfielder
6.58
3
T. Galdames
T. Galdames
Defender86'
6.45
15
N. Rasskazov
N. Rasskazov Midfielder
6.48
18
I. Lepskiy
I. Lepskiy
Defender72'
6.66
19
I. Oleynikov
I. Oleynikov Midfielder
6.78
77
I. Akhmetov
I. Akhmetov Midfielder
6.86
20
K. Stolbov
K. Stolbov
Midfielder81'
6.44
11
A. Rahmanović
A. Rahmanović Attacker
6.72
70
Artem Shumanskiy
Artem Shumanskiy
Attacker86'
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marcelo Alves
6th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
Marcelo Alves
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+9'
90+9'
Event
I. Oleynikov
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
T. Galdames
Foul / 1st Redcard
90+6'
Event
T. Galdames
Card adjusted
86'
Event
Artem Shumanskiy → A. Rahmanović
9th Substitution
86'
Event
T. Galdames → M. Vityugov
8th Substitution
Event
Anton Zinkovskiy → Maksim Mukhin
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
S. Babkin
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
81'
Event
K. Stolbov → I. Akhmetov
6th Substitution
Event
François Kamano → Mikhail Ignatov
5th Substitution
77'
76'
Event
R. Evgenyev
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
72'
Event
I. Lepskiy → N. Rasskazov
4th Substitution
Event
Dmitriy Vasiljev → Kirill Kravtsov
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Gustavo Furtado → Ruslan Magal
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Zakhar Fedorov → Vladimir Iljin
1st Substitution
63'
63'
Event
S. Babkin
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
60'
Event
Kirill Pechenin
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Marcelo Alves
Header / 2nd Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
A. Rahmanović
Penalty disallowed
37'
Event
S. Pesyakov
Handball / 1st Yellowcard
16'
Event
I. Oleynikov
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Sochi's 2-1 triumph over Krylya Sovetov highlighted their superiority as the stronger side, overcoming an early deficit through sustained possession and exploiting the opponent's disciplinary lapses. The two red cards to Krylya Sovetov in the second half created a clear distortion, allowing Sochi to dominate and score the decisive goals. This significant structural deviation of 100% underscored the home team's effectiveness under pressure, with the result matching market alignments perfectly. Efficiency held steady, reinforcing Sochi's control. Overall, the match demonstrated resilience and tactical adaptability, propelling Sochi forward in the standings.