Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği preview

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Vefa Stadı Yesterday - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
Gençlerbirliği GSK
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Fatih Karagümrük host Gençlerbirliği in Super Lig (Regular Season) at Vefa Stadı. Domestically, Fatih Karagümrük sit 18th in the table while Gençlerbirliği are 14th. Power ranking favours Gençlerbirliği by 3.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Gençlerbirliği holds a 3.2-point power advantage with 57.84 rating over Fatih Karagümrük's 54.68.
  • Form: Fatih Karagümrük boasts a superior form score of 22.33 compared to Gençlerbirliği's 6.44.
  • Squad: Fatih Karagümrük sits 18th in the Super Lig while Gençlerbirliği occupies 14th position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both Fatih Karagümrük and Gençlerbirliği.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set pieces data relies on low-confidence proxies with no xG available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable across set piece attack and defense for both sides.
  • Market: Fatih Karagümrük 36.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.4% (Δ+0%) | Gençlerbirliği 35.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Fatih Karagümrük A. Stanojević
A. Stanojević
VS
Gençlerbirliği V. Demirel
V. Demirel
0.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 D
Eyüpspor Rank: 61 L
Konyaspor Rank: 68 L
Rizespor Rank: 69 W
Kayserispor Rank: 63 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: 65 W
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 74 L
Göztepe Rank: 73 L
Konyaspor Rank: 70 L
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fatih Karagümrük
36.13%
Draw
28.36%
Away Gençlerbirliği
35.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.68
57.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fatih Karagümrük
Gençlerbirliği
Power Score
54.68
57.84
League Position
18
14
Global Rank
426
291

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score
Gençlerbirliği — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fatih Karagümrük Gençlerbirliği

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Home
3 matches
Gençlerbirliği GSK Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
8
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:08:38+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Grbić
13 I. Grbić
R. Sousa Esgaio
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
D. Biraschi
4 D. Biraschi
I. Lichnovsky Osorio
3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
F. Mladenović
25 F. Mladenović
B. Özcan
8 B. Özcan
B. Elmaz
6 B. Elmaz
A. Traore
88 A. Traore
S. Larsson
23 S. Larsson
B. Kalayci
72 B. Kalayci
S. Da Luiz Junior
70 S. Da Luiz Junior
M. Silva Velho
24 M. Silva Velho
A. Dursun
77 A. Dursun
T. da Silva
2 T. da Silva
D. Goutas
6 D. Goutas
F. Üzüm
88 F. Üzüm
S. Onur
8 S. Onur
O. Diabate
42 O. Diabate
M. Mimaroğlu
10 M. Mimaroğlu
F. Tongya Heubang
70 F. Tongya Heubang
A. Malouda Traoré
20 A. Malouda Traoré
S. Koita
22 S. Koita

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Vefa Stadı
Capacity
6500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Özcan Sultanoğlu
Oğuzhan Çakır
Samet Çavuş
E. Mertoğlu

Expected Lineup

Referee : Oğuzhan Çakır

Starting XI ▼

13
Ivo Grbic
Ivo Grbic Goalkeeper
7.02
70
Serginho
Serginho Centre Forward
6.86
6
Bartuğ Elmaz
Bartuğ Elmaz Defensive Midfield
6.82
8
Berkay Özcan
Berkay Özcan Defensive Midfield
6.68
72
Barış Kalaycı
Barış Kalaycı Left Wing
6.68
88
Ahmed Traore
Ahmed Traore Right Wing
6.56
4
Davide Biraschi
Davide Biraschi Right Back
6.51
3
Igor Lichnovsky
Igor Lichnovsky Left Back
6.86
47
Ricardo Esgaio
Ricardo Esgaio Right Back
6.5
23
Sam Larsson
Sam Larsson Attacking Midfield
6.92
25
Filip Mladenovic
Filip Mladenovic Left Back
6.77
Referee : Oğuzhan Çakır

Starting XI ▼

24
Ricardo Velho
Ricardo Velho Goalkeeper
7.04
22
Sékou Koïta
Sékou Koïta Centre Forward
6.78
8
Samed Onur
Samed Onur Defensive Midfield
6.69
42
Ousmane Diabate
Ousmane Diabate Defensive Midfield
6.64
88
Fıratcan Üzüm
Fıratcan Üzüm Right Back
6.51
2
Thalisson
Thalisson Left Back
6.7
6
Dimitrios Goutas
Dimitrios Goutas Right Back
6.89
10
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Metehan Mimaroğlu Left Wing
6.81
70
Franco Tongya
Franco Tongya Attacking Midfield
6.73
77
Abdurrahim Dursun
Abdurrahim Dursun Left Back
6.58
20
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré Right Wing
6.56

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Gençlerbirliği holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Gençlerbirliği a 3.2-point edge. External projection is Fatih Karagümrük 36.1%, draw 28.4%, and Gençlerbirliği 35.5%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.