PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Almelo preview

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
MAC³PARK Stadion Yesterday - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle PEC
Heracles Almelo HEA
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 12:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

PEC Zwolle hosts Heracles Almelo at MAC³PARK Stadion in an Eredivisie regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. The home side occupies 13th place, well clear of the visitors languishing in 18th, reflecting their superior power score of 62.8 against 55.76—a 7-point edge that underscores structural dominance. Form further tilts the scales, with Zwolle's 11.33 rating towering over Heracles' meager 4.44, signaling momentum in the hosts' camp. Projections mirror this disparity, assigning PEC Zwolle a 64.1% share. Detailed set piece and efficiency metrics remain elusive without xG data, relying on proxies with low confidence. Nonetheless, Zwolle's advantages in standings, power, and recent performances position them to dictate terms, while Heracles must mount a resilient defensive effort to salvage points on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural: PEC Zwolle holds a 7-point power advantage (62.8 vs 55.76) and superior league position (13th vs 18th).
  • Form: PEC Zwolle's form score of 11.33 far exceeds Heracles Almelo's 4.44.
  • Squad: No recent outings or squad changes reported for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not detailed in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG unavailable with low confidence proxies used for both teams.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables inaccessible due to data limitations.
  • Market: PEC Zwolle 64.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 19.5% (Δ+0%) | Heracles Almelo 16.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
PEC Zwolle Henry van der Vegt
Henry van der Vegt
VS
Heracles Almelo E. Faber
E. Faber
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.65
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
PSV Rank: 85 L
Excelsior Rank: 58 D
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 66 L
NAC Breda Rank: 55 W
FC Groningen Rank: 66 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Volendam Rank: 59 L
Ajax Rank: 75 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 L
Excelsior Rank: 61 D
AZ Rank: 75 L
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 12
12
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home PEC Zwolle
64.13%
Draw
19.49%
Away Heracles Almelo
16.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.8
55.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
PEC Zwolle
Heracles Almelo
Power Score
62.8
55.76
League Position
13
18
Global Rank
396
620

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
PEC Zwolle — Opponent-weighted form score
Heracles Almelo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) PEC Zwolle Heracles Almelo

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

PEC Zwolle PEC Home
24 matches
Heracles Almelo HEA Away
Match Record
7
Wins
12
5
Draws
5
12
Losses
7
Goals
32
Goals Scored
47
47
Goals Conceded
32
-15
Goal Difference
+15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:04:30+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
T. de Graaff
16 T. de Graaff
O. Aertssen
3 O. Aertssen
S. Graves Jensen
28 S. Graves Jensen
A. McNulty
4 A. McNulty
S. Floranus
2 S. Floranus
R. Thomas
30 R. Thomas
Z. Buurmeester
8 Z. Buurmeester
O. Velanas
18 O. Velanas
T. Oosting
25 T. Oosting
K. de Rooij
22 K. de Rooij
K. Kostons
10 K. Kostons
R. Pasveer
22 R. Pasveer
I. Mesík
24 I. Mesík
A. Van Hoorenbeeck
18 A. Van Hoorenbeeck
D. Mirani
4 D. Mirani
S. Cestic
6 S. Cestic
S. Scheperman
32 S. Scheperman
T. Bruns
10 T. Bruns
M. Engels
8 M. Engels
A. Hrustic
70 A. Hrustic
T. van Gilst
17 T. van Gilst
L. Kulenović
19 L. Kulenović

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
MAC³PARK Stadion
Capacity
14000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Rob Dieperink
Rick van Rijn
Robert Kunst
Stan Smit

Expected Lineup

Referee : Rob Dieperink

Starting XI ▼

16
Tom de Graaff
Tom de Graaff Goalkeeper
6.89
10
Koen Kostons
Koen Kostons Centre Forward
6.99
22
Kaj de Rooij
Kaj de Rooij Left Wing
6.81
25
Thijs Oosting
Thijs Oosting Attacking Midfield
6.8
28
Simon Graves
Simon Graves Right Back
6.79
30
Ryan Thomas
Ryan Thomas Defensive Midfield
6.91
2
Sherel Floranus
Sherel Floranus Left Back
6.59
3
Olivier Aertssen
Olivier Aertssen Right Back
6.56
4
Anselmo García MacNulty
Anselmo García MacNulty Left Back
6.66
8
Zico Buurmeester
Zico Buurmeester Defensive Midfield
6.36
18
Odysseus Velanas
Odysseus Velanas Right Wing
6.81
Referee : Rob Dieperink

Starting XI ▼

22
Remko Pasveer
Remko Pasveer Goalkeeper
6.81
19
Luka Kulenovic
Luka Kulenovic Centre Forward
6.87
18
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Left Back
6.74
4
Damon Mirani
Damon Mirani Right Back
6.67
6
Sava-Arangel Cestic
Sava-Arangel Cestic Right Back
6.62
8
Mario Engels
Mario Engels Left Wing
6.45
10
Thomas Bruns
Thomas Bruns Defensive Midfield
6.46
17
Tristan van Gilst
Tristan van Gilst Right Wing
6.53
24
Ivan Mesik
Ivan Mesik Left Back
6.53
32
Sem Scheperman
Sem Scheperman Defensive Midfield
6.99
70
Ajdin Hrustic
Ajdin Hrustic Attacking Midfield
6.96

CONCLUSION

PEC Zwolle approaches this home fixture with clear superiority, backed by a higher power score, better league position, and stronger form metrics. The 7-point edge suggests control in key areas, potentially overwhelming a Heracles Almelo side struggling at the foot of the table. Absent granular efficiency or set piece insights, the focus shifts to overall execution where hosts excel. Heracles' poor form raises doubts about their ability to counter effectively away. Projections reinforce Zwolle's command, pointing to a match where home advantages coalesce for a favorable outcome.