St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Millerntor-Stadion Yesterday - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
St. Pauli PAU
FSV Mainz 05 M05
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 1:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

St. Pauli welcomes FSV Mainz 05 to Millerntor-Stadion for a crucial Bundesliga regular season clash in 2025/2026. The hosts languish in 16th place, grappling with poor form reflected in their 3.72 score, while visitors sit comfortably 10th with a robust 25.56 form rating. Mainz boasts a clear power advantage at 80.03 against St. Pauli's 71.76, underscoring their superior overall strength. At this compact, passionate venue, St. Pauli will lean on home support to disrupt Mainz's rhythm. However, the away side's higher league standing and momentum suggest they enter as the more composed outfit. Both teams face data limitations on set pieces and efficiency, with low-confidence proxies in play. St. Pauli's defensive frailties could be exposed by Mainz's attacking transitions, setting up a tactical battle where execution will decide the outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural: FSV Mainz 05 possesses a structural advantage with an 8.3-point power edge over St. Pauli.
  • Form: St. Pauli records a low form score of 3.72, contrasting sharply with FSV Mainz 05's 25.56.
  • Squad: St. Pauli occupies 16th in the Bundesliga standings, behind FSV Mainz 05 in 10th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable due to lack of specific performance tracking.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis relies on low-confidence proxy data with no xG available for either side.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent across set piece categories for St. Pauli and FSV Mainz 05.
  • Market: St. Pauli 34.4% (Δ+-0%) | Draw 28.7% (Δ+-0%) | FSV Mainz 05 36.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
VS
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heidenheim Rank: 70 L
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 81 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 84 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Pauli
34.37%
Draw
28.7%
Away FSV Mainz 05
36.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
St. Pauli
-0.02%
Draw
-0.02%
FSV Mainz 05
+0.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.76
80.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
Power Score
71.76
80.03
League Position
16
10
Global Rank
156
59

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Pauli FSV Mainz 05

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Pauli PAU Home
5 matches
FSV Mainz 05 M05 Away
Match Record
0
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
3
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:05:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
T. Ando
Japan
15 T. Ando
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
K. Mets
Estonia
3 K. Mets
M. Saliakas
Greece
2 M. Saliakas
M. Rasmussen
Norway
20 M. Rasmussen
J. Irvine
Australia
7 J. Irvine
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
D. Sinani
Luxembourg
10 D. Sinani
J. Fujita
Japan
16 J. Fujita
A. Hountondji
France
27 A. Hountondji
D. Batz
Germany
33 D. Batz
D. Kohr
Germany
31 D. Kohr
S. Posch
Austria
4 S. Posch
D. Vieira da Costa
Germany
21 D. Vieira da Costa
P. Mwene
Austria
2 P. Mwene
N. Amiri
Germany
10 N. Amiri
K. Sano
Japan
6 K. Sano
P. Nebel
Germany
8 P. Nebel
S. Widmer
Switzerland
30 S. Widmer
P. Tietz
Germany
20 P. Tietz
S. Becker
Suriname
23 S. Becker

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity
29546
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Timo Gansloweit
Alexander Sather
Patrick Kessel
Timo Gerach

Lineup

Referee : Timo Gerach

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
6.82
2
Manolis Saliakas
Manolis Saliakas Defender
6.89
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
6.62
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
6.81
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Defender
6.66
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
6.66
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Midfielder
6.78
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Midfielder
7.04
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
6.79
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
6.62
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
6.53
Referee : Timo Gerach

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
6.99
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
6.84
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Defender
6.79
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
6.82
2
Grenddy Perozo
Grenddy Perozo Midfielder
6.65
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
6.98
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
6.9
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
7.37
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Midfielder
6.71
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
6.5
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
6.85

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward FSV Mainz 05 holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give FSV Mainz 05 a 8.3-point edge. External projection is St. Pauli 34.5%, draw 28.7%, and FSV Mainz 05 36.8%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.