Salzburg vs Sturm Graz preview

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Red Bull Arena Yesterday - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Salzburg RBS
Sturm Graz STU
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 3:00 PM
Round 8 Championship Round

CONTEXT

Salzburg host Sturm Graz in Admiral Bundesliga (Championship Round) at Red Bull Arena. Domestically, Salzburg sit 3th in the table while Sturm Graz are 1th. Power ranking favours Salzburg by 0.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Salzburg claims a narrow 0.3-point power advantage over Sturm Graz in this home fixture.
  • Form: Sturm Graz holds a slight form edge with 20.56 compared to Salzburg's 20.33.
  • Squad: Sturm Graz tops domestic standings in 1st, while Salzburg sits 3rd.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both competing teams.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not available for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats rely on low-confidence proxies without xG data.
  • xVariable: xG information across categories unavailable for this matchup.
  • Market: Salzburg 56.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 23.4% (Δ+0%) | Sturm Graz 20.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Salzburg D. Beichler
D. Beichler
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid Rank: 59 L
Austria Wien Rank: 64 W
Austria Wien Rank: 64 W
LASK Linz Rank: 65 L
Hartberg Rank: 60 W
Sturm Graz Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: 63 D
LASK Linz Rank: 66 D
LASK Linz Rank: 65 D
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
SK Rapid Rank: 60 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
44
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
44 - 22 - 17
17
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Salzburg
56.49%
Draw
23.44%
Away Sturm Graz
20.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.72
68.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Salzburg
Sturm Graz
Power Score
68.72
68.42
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
230
236

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Salzburg Sturm Graz

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 83 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Salzburg RBS Home
83 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
44
Wins
17
22
Draws
22
17
Losses
44
Goals
150
Goals Scored
91
91
Goals Conceded
150
+59
Goal Difference
-59
Expected Goals
1.27
xG
1.12
1.12
xGA
1.27

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:07:24+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Schlager
1 A. Schlager
S. Lainer
22 S. Lainer
J. Schuster
44 J. Schuster
T. Drexler
21 T. Drexler
F. Krätzig
13 F. Krätzig
M. Bidstrup
18 M. Bidstrup
Y. Vertessen
11 Y. Vertessen
S. Kitano
8 S. Kitano
M. Kjaergaard
14 M. Kjaergaard
K. Alajbegović
27 K. Alajbegović
K. Konaté
19 K. Konaté
D. Khudyakov
53 D. Khudyakov
P. Koller
30 P. Koller
E. Aiwu
47 E. Aiwu
A. Vallci
5 A. Vallci
E. Karic
17 E. Karic
J. Gorenc Stankovič
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
M. Malone
77 M. Malone
J. Hödl
43 J. Hödl
S. Jatta
20 S. Jatta
O. Kiteishvili
10 O. Kiteishvili
G. Mamageishvili
15 G. Mamageishvili

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 8 · Championship Round
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Capacity
30188
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Markus Greinecker
Harald Lechner
Maximilian Kolbitsch
Maximilian Weiss

Expected Lineup

Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper
6.78
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Midfielder
6.88
27
Kerim Alajbegovic
Kerim Alajbegovic Midfielder
7.37
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté Centre Forward
6.8
22
Stefan Lainer
Stefan Lainer Right Back
6.97
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano Central Midfield
6.9
13
Frans Krätzig
Frans Krätzig Left Back
6.99
14
Maurits Kjærgaard
Maurits Kjærgaard Central Midfield
7.14
18
Mads Bidstrup
Mads Bidstrup Defensive Midfield
6.94
21
Tim Drexler
Tim Drexler Left Back
6.62
44
Jannik Schuster
Jannik Schuster Right Back
7.05
Referee : Harald Lechner

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
6.88
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.58
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Midfielder
7.34
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Midfielder
6.94
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Midfielder
6.62
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Centre Forward
6.84
47
Emanuel Aiwu
Emanuel Aiwu Centre Back
6.61
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Central Midfield
6.75
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Central Midfield
6.98
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Right Back
7.14
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Left Back
6.86

CONCLUSION

Salzburg leverages home advantage and subtle power superiority to challenge Sturm Graz's league-leading position. The visitors counter with top-table form and standings dominance, setting up a tactical chess match. Midfield control and clinical finishing promise to decide this high-stakes affair. Red Bull Arena faithful will push the Bulls toward victory, yet Sturm's resilience demands respect. Expect intensity from kickoff, where small errors could prove costly in the Championship Round grind. Momentum swings favor neither decisively, amplifying intrigue.