Strasbourg vs Toulouse preview

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de la Meinau Yesterday - 3:15 PM
Ligue 1
Strasbourg STR
Toulouse TOU
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 3:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Strasbourg hosts Toulouse at Stade de la Meinau in a pivotal Ligue 1 regular season fixture for the 2025/2026 campaign. The home team sits 8th in the standings with a robust power score of 78.3, eclipsing Toulouse's 72.29 by 6 points, cementing their status as the stronger side. Form metrics further favor Strasbourg at 20.11 against the visitors' 13.28, signaling momentum in recent matches. This mid-table clash promises intensity, with Strasbourg leveraging home advantage and superior structure. Toulouse, languishing in 10th, must disrupt through counter-attacks, though detailed insights into efficiency, transitions, and set pieces are hampered by unavailable xG data and low-confidence proxies. The passionate Meinau crowd could amplify Strasbourg's edge in a contest defined by power disparities and tactical discipline.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Strasbourg holds a 6-point power advantage over Toulouse, positioning them as the structurally superior team.
  • Form: Strasbourg's form score of 20.11 surpasses Toulouse's 13.28.
  • Squad: Strasbourg occupies 8th place while Toulouse sits 10th in Ligue 1.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable due to lack of specific metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats for both teams use low-confidence proxies with no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG-based variables unavailable, limiting advanced analysis.
  • Market: Strasbourg 34.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27% (Δ+0%) | Toulouse 38.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Strasbourg G. O'Neil
G. O'Neil
VS
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: 74 W
Rennes Rank: 78 L
Nice Rank: 72 W
Nantes Rank: 65 W
Paris Rank: 71 D
Auxerre Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Lens Rank: 81 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 79 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
Lorient Rank: 74 W
Metz Rank: 62 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 4 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Strasbourg
34.16%
Draw
27.03%
Away Toulouse
38.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.3
72.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Power Score
78.3
72.29
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
71
148

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Strasbourg Toulouse

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Strasbourg STR Home
17 matches
Toulouse TOU Away
Match Record
10
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
30
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:07:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Pitch
M. Penders
Belgium
39 M. Penders
J. Mwanga
France
18 J. Mwanga
I. Doukoure
France
6 I. Doukoure
L. Høgsberg
Denmark
24 L. Høgsberg
M. Oyedele
Poland
8 M. Oyedele
S. El Mourabet
France
29 S. El Mourabet
R. Gonçalves Soares Luís
Portugal
83 R. Gonçalves Soares Luís
S. Nanasi
Sweden
11 S. Nanasi
S. Amo-Ameyaw
England
27 S. Amo-Ameyaw
G. Yassine
France
80 G. Yassine
J. Enciso
Paraguay
19 J. Enciso
G. Restes
France
1 G. Restes
R. Nicolaisen
Denmark
2 R. Nicolaisen
C. Cresswell
England
4 C. Cresswell
M. McKenzie
United States
3 M. McKenzie
D. Methalie
24 D. Methalie
C. Cásseres Yepes
Venezuela
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
A. Vossah
France
45 A. Vossah
A. Dønnum
Norway
15 A. Dønnum
P. Diop
Senegal
18 P. Diop
S. Hidalgo Massa
Argentina
11 S. Hidalgo Massa
J. Russell-Rowe
Canada
13 J. Russell-Rowe

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade de la Meinau
Capacity
29200
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gaël Angoula
Julien Garrigues
Florian Gonçalves de Araujo
M. Jamet

Lineup

Referee : Gaël Angoula

Starting XI ▼

39
Mike Penders
Mike Penders Goalkeeper
6.98
6
Ismaël Doukouré
Ismaël Doukouré Defender
6.67
8
Maxi Oyedele
Maxi Oyedele Defender
6.72
18
Junior Mwanga
Junior Mwanga Defender
6.79
24
Lucas Høgsberg
Lucas Høgsberg Defender
6.62
27
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Midfielder
6.67
29
Samir El Mourabet
Samir El Mourabet Midfielder
6.94
83
Rafael Filipe Gonçalves Soares Luís
Rafael Filipe Gonçalves Soares Luís Midfielder
6.63
11
Sebastian Nanasi
Sebastian Nanasi Attacker
6.82
19
Julio Enciso
Julio Enciso Attacker
6.91
80
Gessime Yassine
Gessime Yassine Attacker
6.94
Referee : Gaël Angoula

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.76
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender
6.69
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
6.71
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Defender
7.06
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Defender
7.32
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Defender
6.45
11
Santiago Hidalgo
Santiago Hidalgo Midfielder
6.74
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop Midfielder
7.13
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
7.05
45
Alexis Vossah
Alexis Vossah Midfielder
6.45
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe Attacker
6.55

CONCLUSION

Strasbourg approaches this Ligue 1 encounter with clear advantages in power and form, hosting Toulouse at the intimidating Stade de la Meinau. Their 6-point structural lead and higher recent performance scores suggest dominance, especially from 8th versus 10th. Toulouse faces an uphill battle but could exploit gaps in transitions amid sparse data on set pieces and efficiency. The home side's momentum positions them to secure vital points in this tight mid-table scrap, where crowd energy and tactical execution will prove crucial in delivering a statement win.