Sporting Braga vs Estoril preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Braga Yesterday - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga SCB
Estoril EPF
KICKOFF : Yesterday - 5:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Sporting Braga host Estoril at Estádio Municipal de Braga in a Liga Portugal regular season clash. The hosts, perched in 4th place, wield a commanding 14.4-point power advantage, their 81.58 rating towering over Estoril's 67.15. Form underlines this edge, with Braga's score of 21 far surpassing the visitors' meager 5.56. As the stronger outfit, Braga aim to extend their strong home record against a mid-table Estoril side languishing in 10th. Without recent outing details, focus shifts to underlying metrics where Braga's superiority shines. Estoril must disrupt transitions and defend stoutly to counter Braga's attacking threat. Set-piece data remains elusive due to absent xG figures, but Braga's overall profile suggests dominance in open play. This matchup pits ambition against resilience in the Primeira Liga grind.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Sporting Braga hold a 14.4-point power advantage over Estoril, rated at 81.58 versus 67.15.
  • Form: Braga's form score of 21 significantly outpaces Estoril's 5.56.
  • Squad: Sporting Braga sit 4th in the league while Estoril occupy 10th position.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not detailed in available data for either side.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence with proxies used and no xG data available.
  • xVariable: xG data for set pieces is unavailable, limiting variable analysis.
  • Market: Sporting Braga 54.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.4% (Δ+0%) | Estoril 20.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Sporting Braga C. Vicens
C. Vicens
VS
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
2.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: 65 L
Casa Pia Rank: 63 W
Famalicão Rank: 72 D
Arouca Rank: 65 W
Moreirense Rank: 67 W
Porto Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: 73 L
Moreirense Rank: 66 L
Porto Rank: 87 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
Nacional Rank: 65 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 3 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Braga
54.88%
Draw
24.39%
Away Estoril
20.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.58
67.15
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Braga
Estoril
Power Score
81.58
67.15
League Position
4
10
Global Rank
50
267

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Braga — Opponent-weighted form score
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Braga Estoril

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Braga SCB Home
21 matches
Estoril EPF Away
Match Record
14
Wins
4
3
Draws
3
4
Losses
14
Goals
46
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
46
+31
Goal Difference
-31
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T01:08:54+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
T. Magalhães Sá
12 T. Magalhães Sá
G. Lagerbielke
14 G. Lagerbielke
V. Carvalho Vieira
6 V. Carvalho Vieira
L. Cruz Lelo
5 L. Cruz Lelo
V. Gómez Perea
2 V. Gómez Perea
L. Teixeira Pinto
90 L. Teixeira Pinto
J. Iria Santos Moutinho
8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
M. Dorgeles
20 M. Dorgeles
R. Zalazar Martínez
10 R. Zalazar Martínez
R. Horta
21 R. Horta
Pau Victor
18 Pau Victor
M. Turk
16 M. Turk
F. Reis Ferreira
4 F. Reis Ferreira
A. Tsoungui
5 A. Tsoungui
F. Bacher
25 F. Bacher
P. Gaspar Amaral
24 P. Gaspar Amaral
J. Holsgrove
10 J. Holsgrove
M. da Silva Rocha
8 M. da Silva Rocha
R. Sánchez Sendra
2 R. Sánchez Sendra
J. Antunes Carvalho
12 J. Antunes Carvalho
R. Guitane
99 R. Guitane
Y. Begraoui
14 Y. Begraoui

General Information

Date & Time
May 03, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio Municipal de Braga
Capacity
30286
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues
Inácio Pereira
Ângelo Carneiro
Tiago Miguel Gonçalves Rodrigues

Expected Lineup

Referee : Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues

Starting XI ▼

12
Tiago Sá
Tiago Sá Goalkeeper
6.77
21
Ricardo Horta
Ricardo Horta Midfielder
7.59
10
Rodrigo Zalazar
Rodrigo Zalazar Midfielder
7.43
20
Mario Dorgeles
Mario Dorgeles Midfielder
6.85
2
Víctor Gómez
Víctor Gómez Midfielder
6.95
18
Pau Víctor
Pau Víctor Centre Forward
6.98
8
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Central Midfield
7.02
14
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Right Back
6.95
5
Leonardo Lelo
Leonardo Lelo Left Back
6.93
6
Vítor Carvalho
Vítor Carvalho Centre Back
7.05
90
Luís Teixeira Pinto
Luís Teixeira Pinto Central Midfield
6.71
Referee : Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues

Starting XI ▼

16
Martin Turk
Martin Turk Goalkeeper
6.85
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Midfielder
6.77
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Midfielder
6.53
99
Rafik Guitane
Rafik Guitane Midfielder
6.83
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho Midfielder
7.18
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Centre Forward
7.06
8
Xeka
Xeka Central Midfield
6.67
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Right Back
6.79
4
Ferro
Ferro Left Back
6.81
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Centre Back
6.71
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Central Midfield
7.17

CONCLUSION

Sporting Braga enter as clear favorites, leveraging their superior power rating, form, and home advantage at Estádio Municipal de Braga against a struggling Estoril. The 14.4-point gap and league standings highlight Braga's edge in structure and momentum. While set pieces and efficiency lack depth due to data gaps, Braga's overall profile points to control in possession and transitions. Estoril face an uphill battle to exploit any weaknesses, but Braga's consistency should prevail in this regular season encounter. Expect the hosts to secure a comfortable victory and climb higher in the table.