Ararat-Armenia vs Universitatea Craiova preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium
Europa League
Ararat-ArmeniaARAR2
1 0
Universitatea CraiovaUCR
Full Time
Play-offs Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 1
Sandro Lima - 90+8'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ararat-Armenia 1–0 Universitatea Craiova. The result saw Ararat-Armenia take the points. Ararat-Armenia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Ararat-Armenia 1.2 – 1.5 Universitatea Craiova. Possession was 49%–51%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant 23.9 percent deviation occurred with Ararat-Armenia as the identified deviation team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations across both teams.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was inconsistent with xG values as the lower-xG side won.
  • Market alignment: The result stayed aligned with market projections despite the deviation.
  • xG expectations: Ararat-Armenia posted 1.23 xG against Universitatea Craiova's 1.49 xG.
  • Event impact: The 1-0 result confirmed Ararat-Armenia's aggregate progression.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued and therefore no distortion occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Rumšas
D. Rumšas
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Radiušas
A. Radiušas
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Sužiedėlis
D. Sužiedėlis
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Šmitas
R. Šmitas
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Ararat-Armenia M. da Silva Cruz
M. da Silva Cruz
VS
Universitatea Craiova F. Amaral Rino Coelho
F. Amaral Rino Coelho
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Universitatea Craiova Rank: 71 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ararat-Armenia Rank: D
KuPS Rank: W
KuPS Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ararat-Armenia
76.06%
Draw
23.2%
Away Universitatea Craiova
0.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.3
31.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ararat-Armenia
Universitatea Craiova
Power Score
27.3
31.43
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ararat-Armenia — Opponent-weighted form score
Universitatea Craiova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ararat-Armenia Universitatea Craiova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ararat-Armenia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Universitatea Craiova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ararat-Armenia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Universitatea Craiova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.55
51.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
51.86
17.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ararat-Armenia -2.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Universitatea Craiova +2.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ararat-Armenia
Universitatea Craiova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ararat-Armenia
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ararat-Armenia Universitatea Craiova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
94%
8%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.15 vs -0.13
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ararat-Armenia Universitatea Craiova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
8%
94%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.13 vs -1.15
Ararat-Armenia
Universitatea Craiova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Ararat-Armenia
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Ararat-Armenia Universitatea Craiova
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Ararat-Armenia 0.07
Universitatea Craiova 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Ararat-Armenia Universitatea Craiova
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Ararat-Armenia 0.00
Universitatea Craiova 0.01
Ararat-Armenia
Universitatea Craiova
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • UCR had peak pressure around 32'.
  • UCR started the game with stronger pressure.
ARAR2 Pressure UCR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: UCR reached the top pressure at 32' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ararat-Armenia ARAR2 Home
1 matches
Universitatea Craiova UCR Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-28T00:01:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · Play-offs · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 1
Stadium
Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium
Capacity
14403
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Donatas Rumšas
Aleksandras Radiušas
Dovydas Sužiedėlis
R. Šmitas

Statistics

Possession
ARAR2
48%
UCR
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 11
72 Dangerous attacks 89
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

103 Ball Safe 97
2 Penalties 0
14 Goal Kicks 6
3 Goal Attempts 9
5 Substitutions 3
30 Throwins 15
1 Injuries 0
9 Successful Dribbles 7
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64

Attacking

115 Attacks 115

Possession

474 Passes 491
86 Successful Passes Percentage 88
3 Key Passes 19

Defensive

2 Saves 0
6 Interceptions 9
36 Duels Won 41

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
8 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Donatas Rumšas

Starting XI ▼

2
Hugo Oliveira
Hugo Oliveira
20
Alwyn Tera
Alwyn Tera
Midfielder90+2'
3
Junior Julio
Junior Julio
11
Zidane Banjaqui
Zidane Banjaqui
7
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Midfielder78'
6.39
16
Edgar Grigoryan
Edgar Grigoryan
19
Karen Muradyan
Karen Muradyan (C)
17
Maxence Carlier
Maxence Carlier
Midfielder90+2'
43
Bruno Wilson
Bruno Wilson
47
Alexandros Malis
Alexandros Malis
70
Bernardo Dias
Bernardo Dias
95
Carlos França
Carlos França
Midfielder70'
6.41
77
Artur Serobyan
Artur Serobyan
8
Balanta Jr.
Balanta Jr.
Midfielder78'
6.57
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima
98
João Bravim
João Bravim
Referee : Donatas Rumšas

Starting XI ▼

3
Oleksandr Romanchuk
Oleksandr Romanchuk
5
Anzor Mekvabishvili
Anzor Mekvabishvili
6
Vladimir Screciu
Vladimir Screciu
8
Tudor Băluță
Tudor Băluță
23
Samuel Teles
Samuel Teles
Midfielder62'
6.41
9
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Assad Al-Hamlawi
7
Steven Nsimba
Steven Nsimba
Attacker72'
6.67
10
Ștefan Baiaram
Ștefan Baiaram
12
Monday Etim
Monday Etim
Attacker89'
11
Nicușor Bancu
Nicușor Bancu (C)
17
Carlos Mora
Carlos Mora
20
Alexandru Cicâldău
Alexandru Cicâldău
21
Laurențiu Popescu
Laurențiu Popescu
24
Nikola Stevanovic
Nikola Stevanovic

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sandro Lima
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+10'
Event
Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 5th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
Sandro Lima
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
90+8'
Event
Sandro Lima
1st Missed Penalty
90+8'
90+7'
Event
Samuel Teles
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Steven Nsimba
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Maxence Carlier → Karen Muradyan
7th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Alwyn Tera → Hugo Oliveira
8th Substitution
90+2'
89'
Event
Monday Etim → Ștefan Baiaram
6th Substitution
Event
Bruno Wilson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Balanta Jr. → Artur Serobyan
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Zhirayr Shaghoyan → Zidane Banjaqui
5th Substitution
78'
72'
Event
Steven Nsimba → Assad Al-Hamlawi
3rd Substitution
Event
Carlos França → Bernardo Dias
2nd Substitution
70'
62'
Event
Samuel Teles → Tudor Băluță
1st Substitution
48'
Event
Nicușor Bancu 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Zhirayr Shaghoyan.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima scores to make it 1-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved by Sandro Cesar Cordovil de Lima.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Samuel Teles Pereira Nunes Silva.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Steven Nsimba.
90
Update Update
On comes Alwyn Tera, and off goes Hugo Oliveira.
90
Update Update
Maxence Carlier is on, and Karen Muradyan is off.
89
Update Update
On Monday, Etim comes on for Stefan Baiaram.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bruno Wilson receives a yellow card.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Update Update
Juan Balanta is on, and Artur Serobyan is off.
77
Update Update
Zhirayr Shaghoyan is on, and Zidane Banjaqui is off.
75
Update Update
Offside.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Steven Nsimba comes on for Assad Al Hamlawi.
71
Update Update
Offside.
70
Substitution Substitution
Carlos Franca is substituted on for Benny.
62
Substitution Substitution
Samuel Teles Pereira Nunes Silva is substituted off for Cristian Baluta.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Update Update
Offside.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Update Update
Offside.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicusor Bancu receives a yellow card.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Update Update
Offside.
1
Update Update
Offside.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Donatas Rumsas.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Universitatea Craiova. Structural assessment: Ararat-Armenia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.