Hibernian vs Hearts preview
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Easter Road Stadium
Sun, 26 Apr - 3:30 PM
Round 34 ·
2nd Phase
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 13
CONTEXT
Hibernian faced Hearts in an intense Edinburgh derby, falling 1-2 despite leading 1-0 at halftime. The home side struck first but crumbled in the second half after two red cards left them with nine men. Hearts dominated with 76% possession compared to Hibernian's mere 24%, showcasing superior control and pressing the advantage relentlessly. The visitors, identified as the stronger team pre-match, overturned the deficit efficiently once numerical superiority was gained. Hibernian's early promise evaporated under the pressure of dismissals, allowing Hearts to secure a deserved victory. This outcome highlighted the impact of disciplinary lapses in a fiercely contested local rivalry, where resilience met overwhelming dominance.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 2.6% in favor of Hearts.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
-
Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final outcome.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
-
Event impact: Two red cards to Hibernian decisively altered match flow.
-
Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
D. Gray
VS
D. McInnes
1.6
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen
Rank:
L
Kilmarnock
Rank:
W
Motherwell
Rank:
D
Livingston
Rank:
D
Dundee
Rank:
D
Celtic
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell
Rank:
W
Livingston
Rank:
D
Dundee
Rank:
W
Kilmarnock
Rank:
L
Aberdeen
Rank:
W
Falkirk
Rank:
W
15
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 20 - 25
25
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Hibernian
0.19%
Draw
2.38%
Hearts
97.43%
Movement
Changes since opening
Hibernian
0%
Draw
-1.32%
Hearts
+1.32%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.14
37.19
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hibernian
Hearts
Power Score
30.14
37.19
League Position
5
1
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Hibernian
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Hearts
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Hibernian Hearts
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Hibernian
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Hearts
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Hibernian
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Hearts
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Hibernian
Hearts
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Hibernian
Hearts
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hibernian
Hearts
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Hibernian
vs
Hearts
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Hibernian
Hearts
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Hibernian
0.00
Hearts
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hibernian
Hearts
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Hibernian
0.00
Hearts
0.00
Hibernian
Hearts
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Hearts had peak pressure around 62'.
- HIB started the game with stronger pressure.
HIB Pressure
Hearts Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
Hearts reached the top pressure at 62' (94.23).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Hibernian
HIB
Home
60
matches
Hearts
Hearts
Away
Match Record
15
Wins
25
20
Draws
20
25
Losses
15
Goals
52
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
52
-22
Goal Difference
+22
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T15:04:23+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-1-2
Match Formation
4-4-2
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Easter Road Stadium
Capacity
20421
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Colin Steven
Ross MacLeod
Don Robertson
D. Roome
Next Match
Hibernian
vs
Celtic
League: Premiership
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 11:00 AM
Venue: Easter Road Stadium
Hearts
vs
Rangers
League: Premiership
Kickoff: Mon, 4 May - 4:30 PM
Venue: Tynecastle Park
Statistics
Possession
HIB
30%
Hearts
70%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
2
1
Big Chances Created
1
1
Shots
6
9
Dangerous attacks
95
24
Possession
76
0
Corners
11
17
Free kicks
8
5
Yellow Cards
3
2
Red Cards
0
Match Overview
1
Injuries
0
42
Ball Safe
38
3
Goal Attempts
9
5
Successful Dribbles
4
10
Dribble Attempts
17
1
Assists
1
14
Throwins
27
50
Successful Dribbles Percentage
24
11
Goal Kicks
4
5
Substitutions
5
0
Hit Woodwork
2
Attacking
0
Big Chances Missed
1
64
Attacks
138
Possession
14
Successful Long Passes
19
76
Successful Passes
413
79
Long Passes
42
18
Successful Long Passes Percentage
45
43
Successful Passes Percentage
81
3
Key Passes
20
175
Passes
507
Defensive
65
Duels Won
57
21
Tackles
10
5
Interceptions
6
5
Saves
0
Build-up
2
Total Crosses
47
1
Accurate Crosses
14
Discipline
0
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
17
Lineup
Referee :
Don Robertson
Manager ▼
D. Gray
Coach
Starting XI ▼
33
Rocky Bushiri
Defender
6.87
19
Nicky Cadden
Midfielder
6.98 Substitutes ▼
28
Kai Andrews
Midfielder
6.58 
Referee :
Don Robertson
Manager ▼
D. McInnes
Coach
Starting XI ▼
4
Craig Halkett
Defender
7.12 6
Beni Baningime
Midfielder
6.7 49
Marc Leonard
Midfielder
7.39
Substitutes ▼
2
Frankie Kent
Defender
6.8 
Events
2ND-HALF
90+3'
10th Substitution
Rocky Bushiri
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+2'
90+2'
Marc Leonard
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+2'
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
90'
9th Substitution
86'
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
7th Substitution
64'
6th Substitution
64'
8th Substitution
64'
58'
4th Substitution
58'
5th Substitution
3rd Substitution
50'
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
48'
46'
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
45+3'
45+2'
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+1'
1st Substitution
15'
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
14'
Card adjusted
13'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'
CONCLUSION
Hearts emerged victorious 1-2 over Hibernian, capitalizing on two second-half red cards that shifted momentum dramatically from a 1-0 halftime deficit. With 76% possession, the away side overwhelmed a depleted defense, affirming their status as the stronger team. Hibernian's early lead showcased resilience, but numerical disadvantage proved insurmountable, underscoring discipline's critical role. This result aligns with pre-match structural views, minimal deviations noted, and event distortions evident in the turnaround.
