Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor preview

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu Mon, 27 Apr - 2:00 PM
Super Lig
Alanyaspor ANY
2 3
Samsunspor Samsunspor
Full Time Mon, 27 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Güven Yalçın - 90+6'
Meschack Elia - 90+7'
Goal
|
Goal
Elayis Tavsan - 37'
Olivier Ntcham - 39'
Marius Mouandilmadji - 90+1'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Alanyaspor 2–3 Samsunspor. The result saw Samsunspor take the points. Samsunspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Samsunspor achieved a significant 70.9% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, so alignment cannot be determined.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No red cards or second-half adjustments influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Alanyaspor N. Pereira Costa
N. Pereira Costa
VS
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: D
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: D
Kocaelispor Rank: W
Göztepe Rank: D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Beşiktaş Rank: W
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Rizespor Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: D
Kayserispor Rank: W
Fenerbahçe Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alanyaspor
42.4%
Draw
28.48%
Away Samsunspor
29.12%

Movement

Changes since opening
Alanyaspor
+42.12%
Draw
+26.11%
Samsunspor
-68.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.69
30.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alanyaspor
Samsunspor
Power Score
20.69
30.45
League Position
12
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alanyaspor Samsunspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Alanyaspor Samsunspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Alanyaspor Samsunspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Alanyaspor
Samsunspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Alanyaspor
vs
Samsunspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Alanyaspor Samsunspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Alanyaspor 0.00
Samsunspor 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Alanyaspor Samsunspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Alanyaspor 0.00
Samsunspor 0.00
Alanyaspor
Samsunspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ANY had peak pressure around 49'.
  • Samsunspor started the game with stronger pressure.
ANY Pressure Samsunspor Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ANY reached the top pressure at 49' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alanyaspor ANY Home
5 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
7
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T13:30:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. de Mileo Vidotti
Brazil
48 P. de Mileo Vidotti
F. Aksoy
Substitution
Türkiye
20 F. Aksoy
N. Reis Lima
Portugal
3 N. Reis Lima
?. Akdağ
Substitution
Romania
50 ?. Akdağ
F. Hadërgjonaj
Kosovo
94 F. Hadërgjonaj
A. Simão Muanza
Substitution
Angola
58 A. Simão Muanza
N. Janvier
France
17 N. Janvier
R. Pereira Duarte
Brazil
11 R. Pereira Duarte
U. Hwang
Substitution
South Korea
16 U. Hwang
S. Mounié
Substitution
Benin
9 S. Mounié
İ. Kaya
Substitution
Türkiye
27 İ. Kaya
İ. Eğribayat
Türkiye
71 İ. Eğribayat
S. Gönül
Türkiye
28 S. Gönül
T. Borevković
Croatia
24 T. Borevković
Y. Cift
Substitution
Türkiye
55 Y. Cift
J. Wooding Mendes
Substitution
Sweden
2 J. Wooding Mendes
J. Ntcham
Substitution
France
10 J. Ntcham
Y. Kayan
Türkiye
20 Y. Kayan
E. Tavsan
Substitution
Netherlands
7 E. Tavsan
C. Holse
Denmark
21 C. Holse
A. Badra Diabaté
Substitution
Ivory Coast
15 A. Badra Diabaté
M. Mouandilmadji
Chad
9 M. Mouandilmadji

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 27, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
Capacity
10128
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ozan Ergün
Onur Gülter
Ozan Ergün
Oğuzhan Gökçen

Statistics

Possession
ANY
48%
Samsunspor
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 4
6 Shots 2
40 Dangerous attacks 41
48 Possession 52
12 Corners 5
18 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

20 Throwins 12
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
17 Successful Headers 10
13 Dribble Attempts 8
2 Goal Kicks 11
4 Successful Dribbles 5
0 Assists 3
60 Ball Safe 81
1 Injuries 2
12 Goal Attempts 6
6 Substitutions 5

Attacking

81 Attacks 86
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 27
329 Successful Passes 350
389 Passes 425
85 Successful Passes Percentage 82
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
43 Long Passes 58
13 Key Passes 9

Defensive

11 Tackles 21
3 Interceptions 7
50 Duels Won 47
3 Saves 3

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 13
8 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 4
11 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Ozan Ergün

Starting XI ▼

48
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Goalkeeper
6.71
3
Nuno Lima
Nuno Lima Defender
6.84
20
Fatih Aksoy
Fatih Aksoy Defender
6.61
6
İzzet Çelik
İzzet Çelik
Midfielder69'
6.52
50
Ümit Akdağ
Ümit Akdağ Defender
6.92
18
Baran Moğultay
Baran Moğultay
Defender46'
6.52
11
Ruan
Ruan Midfielder
6.94
17
Nicolas Janvier
Nicolas Janvier Midfielder
6.87
58
Maestro
Maestro Midfielder
6.85
42
Gaius Makouta
Gaius Makouta
Midfielder87'
6.74
94
Florent Hadergjonaj
Florent Hadergjonaj Midfielder
7.08
9
Steve Mounié
Steve Mounié Attacker
6.67
10
Güven Yalçın
Güven Yalçın
Attacker68'
6.74
16
Ui-jo Hwang
Ui-jo Hwang Attacker
6.86
8
Enes Keskin
Enes Keskin
Midfielder87'
6.7
27
İbrahim Kaya
İbrahim Kaya Attacker
6.82
12
Meschack Elia
Meschack Elia
Attacker46'
6.58
Referee : Ozan Ergün

Starting XI ▼

71
İrfan Can Eğribayat
İrfan Can Eğribayat Goalkeeper
6.9
2
Joe Mendes
Joe Mendes Defender
6.46
23
Enes Albak
Enes Albak
Defender90'
7.04
24
Toni Borevković
Toni Borevković Defender
6.67
28
Soner Gönül
Soner Gönül Defender
6.68
55
Yunus Emre Çift
Yunus Emre Çift Defender
6.69
37
Lubomir Satka
Lubomir Satka
Defender57'
6.75
7
Elayis Tavsan
Elayis Tavsan Midfielder
6.84
70
Tanguy Coulibaly
Tanguy Coulibaly
Attacker90'
6.67
10
Olivier Ntcham
Olivier Ntcham Midfielder
6.89
29
Antoine Makoumbou
Antoine Makoumbou
Midfielder72'
6.9
15
Ali Badra Diabaté
Ali Badra Diabaté Midfielder
7.77
4
Rick van Drongelen
Rick van Drongelen
Defender57'
7.05
20
Yalçın Kayan
Yalçın Kayan Midfielder
6.73
21
Carlo Holse
Carlo Holse Midfielder
7.11
9
Marius Mouandilmadji
Marius Mouandilmadji Attacker
6.71

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Meschack Elia
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
90+7'
Event
Güven Yalçın
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+6'
90+2'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Goal awarded
90+1'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90'
Event
Enes Albak → Joe Mendes
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Tanguy Coulibaly → Elayis Tavsan
11th Substitution
89'
Event
Soner Gönül
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Enes Keskin → Ui-jo Hwang
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Gaius Makouta → Maestro
9th Substitution
87'
72'
Event
Antoine Makoumbou → Olivier Ntcham
7th Substitution
Event
İzzet Çelik → Fatih Aksoy
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Güven Yalçın → Steve Mounié
5th Substitution
68'
57'
Event
Lubomir Satka → Yunus Emre Çift
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Rick van Drongelen → Ali Badra Diabaté
3rd Substitution
Event
Nuno Lima
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
48'
Event
Meschack Elia → İbrahim Kaya
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Baran Moğultay → Ümit Akdağ
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Ali Badra Diabaté
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45'
Event
6th Yellowcard
39'
Event
Olivier Ntcham
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
37'
Event
Elayis Tavsan
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Steve Mounié
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
17'
Event
Elayis Tavsan
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Samsunspor's 3-2 triumph over Alanyaspor validates their status as the stronger side, with a commanding halftime lead and clinical finishing proving decisive. The 70.9% structural deviation underscores their overachievement against expectations, while balanced possession reflected a competitive affair. Alanyaspor's second-half resurgence showed fight but ultimately faltered, conceding a winner that highlighted defensive lapses. Efficiency holding steady amid no disruptions points to tactical discipline from the winners. This outcome shifts momentum for Samsunspor in the league table, potentially elevating their position, as Alanyaspor grapples with dropped points at home.