Gorica vs Istra 1961 preview

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica Today - 4:00 PM
1. HNL
Gorica Gorica
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
KICKOFF : Today - 4:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Gorica host Istra 1961 in 1. HNL (Regular Season) at ŠRC Velika Gorica. Domestically, Gorica sit 8th in the table while Istra 1961 are 7th. Power ranking favours Istra 1961 by 1.2 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Istra 1961 possesses a narrow 1.2-point power advantage over Gorica with scores of 21.63 to 20.44.
  • Form: Gorica leads in form with a 16.5 score compared to Istra 1961's 15.94.
  • Squad: Gorica holds 8th in the league while Istra 1961 sits 7th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence and no xG for Gorica and Istra 1961, using proxies.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, limiting advanced variable analysis.
  • Market: Projection split: Gorica 47.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.1% (Δ+0%) | Istra 1961 24.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
VS
Istra 1961 O. Riera Magem
O. Riera Magem
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: W
Rijeka Rank: W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 10 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gorica
47.79%
Draw
28.07%
Away Istra 1961
24.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.44
21.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Istra 1961
Power Score
20.44
21.63
League Position
8
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Istra 1961

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home
31 matches
Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Away
Match Record
14
Wins
7
10
Draws
10
7
Losses
14
Goals
45
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
45
+15
Goal Difference
-15
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T01:11:00+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Matijaš
71 D. Matijaš
S. Peric
45 S. Peric
J. Filipović
4 J. Filipović
M. Leš
5 M. Leš
Ž. Trontelj
22 Ž. Trontelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
A. Kavelj
36 A. Kavelj
B. Bogojević
25 B. Bogojević
J. Pršir
10 J. Pršir
D. Pavičić
24 D. Pavičić
A. Erceg
50 A. Erceg
F. Kolić
1 F. Kolić
M. Heister
26 M. Heister
R. Kumar
38 R. Kumar
M. Nasraoui
3 M. Nasraoui
A. Kadušić
97 A. Kadušić
L. Štulac
23 L. Štulac
A. Mauric
8 A. Mauric
V. Rozić
7 V. Rozić
S. Lončar
10 S. Lončar
E. Frederiksen
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Prevljak
9 S. Prevljak

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 27, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity
8000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivan Starčević
Josip Bošnjak
Patrik Kolarić
N. Vuković

Expected Lineup

Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
6.75
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
6.93
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
6.68
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Midfielder
6.94
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Midfielder
6.78
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Centre Forward
6.88
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Central Midfield
7.14
5
Mateo Les
Mateo Les Left Back
6.53
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Central Midfield
6.85
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Right Back
6.68
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Centre Back
6.8
Referee : Patrik Kolarić

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
6.93
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Centre Forward
6.88
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Right Wing
6.94
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Left Wing
6.63
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic Right Back
6.81
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac Defensive Midfield
6.76
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Attacking Midfield
6.86
3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Mohamed Nasraoui Right Back
6.95
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Left Back
6.72
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Left Back
6.73
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric Defensive Midfield
6.8

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Istra 1961 holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Istra 1961 a 1.2-point edge. External projection is Gorica 47.8%, draw 28.1%, and Istra 1961 24.1%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.