Southampton vs Ipswich Town preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Mary's Stadium Tue, 28 Apr - 6:45 PM
Championship
SouthamptonSOU
Ipswich TownIPS
KICKOFF : Tue, 28 Apr - 6:45 PM
Round 40 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Southampton host Ipswich Town at St. Mary's Stadium in a pivotal Championship regular season fixture for the 2025/2026 campaign. The Saints hold a clear edge with a power score of 38.73 against Ipswich's 33, granting them a 5.7-point advantage and designating them the stronger team overall. Form metrics reinforce this, as Southampton's 39.39 rating dwarfs Ipswich's 27.72, suggesting sharper recent momentum despite the Tractor Boys' loftier 2nd place compared to the hosts' 5th. No specific last outings are recorded, leaving focus on seasonal trends. Set piece data remains elusive, with low-confidence proxies in play due to absent xG figures for both attack and defence. This matchup contrasts Southampton's home fortitude and superior ratings against Ipswich's table-topping position, promising a battle of substance versus standing. Expect a tight contest where power disparities could tip the scales.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Southampton enjoy a 5.7-point power advantage over Ipswich as the designated stronger team.
  • Form: Southampton's form score of 39.39 outstrips Ipswich's 27.72.
  • Squad: Ipswich sit 2nd in the Championship while Southampton occupy 5th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data relies on low-confidence proxies with no xG available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to data limitations.
  • Market: Southampton 43% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.6% (Δ-0.1%) | Ipswich Town 30.5% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Ipswich Town K. McKenna
K. McKenna
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City Rank: D
Swansea City Rank: W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: W
Derby County Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: D
Portsmouth Rank: L
Norwich City Rank: W
Birmingham City Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 8 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
42.95%
Draw
26.55%
Away Ipswich Town
30.5%

Movement

Changes since opening
Southampton
0%
Draw
-0.12%
Ipswich Town
+0.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.73
33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Ipswich Town
Power Score
38.73
33
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Ipswich Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Ipswich Town

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
22 matches
Ipswich Town IPS Away
Match Record
7
Wins
7
8
Draws
8
7
Losses
7
Goals
33
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
33
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:03:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
England
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
N. Wood-Gordon
England
15 N. Wood-Gordon
Welington
Brazil
34 Welington
C. Jander
Germany
20 C. Jander
S. Charles
England
24 S. Charles
F. Azaz
England
10 F. Azaz
C. Archer
England
19 C. Archer
K. Matsuki
Japan
27 K. Matsuki
C. Larin
Canada
9 C. Larin
C. Walton
England
28 C. Walton
K. McAteer
England
20 K. McAteer
C. Kipre
Ivory Coast
4 C. Kipre
D. O'Shea
Republic of Ireland
26 D. O'Shea
D. Furlong
England
19 D. Furlong
J. Taylor
Republic of Ireland
14 J. Taylor
A. Matusiwa
Netherlands
5 A. Matusiwa
J. Clarke
England
47 J. Clarke
M. Nuñez
Chile
32 M. Nuñez
J. Philogene-Bidace
England
11 J. Philogene-Bidace
G. Hirst
England
9 G. Hirst

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 28, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity
32384
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Kirk
Connor Brown
Richard Woodward
Ruebyn Ricardo

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.92
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
7.24
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
6.95
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood Defender
6.78
34
Welington
Welington Defender
6.64
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
7.11
19
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer Midfielder
6.61
20
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander Midfielder
6.9
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Midfielder
6.98
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki Midfielder
6.85
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Attacker
6.74
Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

28
Christian Walton
Christian Walton Goalkeeper
6.94
4
Cédric Kipré
Cédric Kipré Defender
7.03
19
Darnell Furlong
Darnell Furlong Defender
6.86
20
Kasey McAteer
Kasey McAteer Defender
6.46
26
Dara O'Shea
Dara O'Shea Defender
7.07
5
Azor Matusiwa
Azor Matusiwa Midfielder
6.98
11
Jaden Philogene
Jaden Philogene Midfielder
7.05
14
Jack Taylor
Jack Taylor Midfielder
6.83
32
Marcelino Núñez
Marcelino Núñez Midfielder
6.9
47
Jack Clarke
Jack Clarke Midfielder
6.98
9
George Hirst
George Hirst Attacker
6.75

CONCLUSION

Southampton's superior power and form scores position them as favourites in this home clash, despite Ipswich's higher league standing at 2nd to their 5th. The 5.7-point edge underscores the Saints' structural dominance, likely amplified by St. Mary's atmosphere. Without detailed set piece or efficiency insights, the focus narrows to overarching metrics favouring the hosts. Ipswich's table position hints at resilience, but Southampton's ratings suggest they can exploit any lapses. A narrow home win appears probable, hinging on converting form into results against a top challenger.