Southampton vs Ipswich Town preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Mary's Stadium Today - 6:45 PM
Championship
Southampton SOU
Ipswich Town IPS
KICKOFF : Today - 6:45 PM
Round 40 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Southampton host Ipswich Town in Championship (Regular Season) at St. Mary's Stadium. Domestically, Southampton sit 5th in the table while Ipswich Town are 2th. Power ranking favours Southampton by 5.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Southampton holds a 5.7-point power advantage, indicating superior structural balance over Ipswich Town.
  • Form: Southampton's form score of 39.39 exceeds Ipswich Town's 27.72 by a wide margin.
  • Squad: Both teams deploy competitive squads, with Southampton leveraging home depth in the Championship.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture analysis.
  • Transition: Transition data remains unspecified, highlighting potential open-play focus.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats for both teams rely on low-confidence proxy measures.
  • xVariable: Southampton leads in xVariable performance, mirroring their 38.73 power score over Ipswich's 33.
  • Market: Southampton 42.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.4% (Δ+0%) | Ipswich Town 29.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
VS
Ipswich Town K. McKenna
K. McKenna
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City Rank: D
Swansea City Rank: W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: W
Derby County Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: D
Portsmouth Rank: L
Norwich City Rank: W
Birmingham City Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 8 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Southampton
42.83%
Draw
27.39%
Away Ipswich Town
29.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.73
33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Southampton
Ipswich Town
Power Score
38.73
33
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Ipswich Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Southampton Ipswich Town

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Southampton SOU Home
22 matches
Ipswich Town IPS Away
Match Record
7
Wins
7
8
Draws
8
7
Losses
7
Goals
33
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
33
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:23:28+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Peretz
41 D. Peretz
J. Bree
14 J. Bree
T. Harwood-Bellis
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
N. Wood-Gordon
15 N. Wood-Gordon
R. Manning
3 R. Manning
F. Downes
4 F. Downes
S. Charles
24 S. Charles
T. Fellows
18 T. Fellows
C. Archer
19 C. Archer
F. Azaz
10 F. Azaz
C. Larin
9 C. Larin
C. Walton
28 C. Walton
B. Johnson
18 B. Johnson
J. Greaves
24 J. Greaves
D. O'Shea
26 D. O'Shea
D. Furlong
19 D. Furlong
D. Neil
6 D. Neil
A. Matusiwa
5 A. Matusiwa
J. Clarke
47 J. Clarke
A. Mehmeti
33 A. Mehmeti
K. McAteer
20 K. McAteer
I. Monzón
31 I. Monzón

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 28, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium
St. Mary's Stadium
Capacity
32384
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Kirk
Connor Brown
Richard Woodward
Ruebyn Ricardo

Expected Lineup

Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.92
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin Centre Forward
6.74
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Left Back
7.2
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes Defensive Midfield
6.79
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Right Back
7.24
14
James Bree
James Bree Right Back
6.95
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows Right Wing
6.75
19
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer Attacking Midfield
6.61
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Defensive Midfield
6.98
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Left Wing
7.11
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood Left Back
6.78
Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

28
Christian Walton
Christian Walton Goalkeeper
6.94
31
Iván Azón
Iván Azón Centre Forward
6.62
18
Ben Johnson
Ben Johnson Left Back
6.72
26
Dara O'Shea
Dara O'Shea Right Back
7.07
33
Anis Mehmeti
Anis Mehmeti Attacking Midfield
7.13
47
Jack Clarke
Jack Clarke Left Wing
6.98
5
Azor Matusiwa
Azor Matusiwa Defensive Midfield
6.98
6
Dan Neil
Dan Neil Defensive Midfield
6.71
19
Darnell Furlong
Darnell Furlong Right Back
6.86
20
Kasey McAteer
Kasey McAteer Right Wing
6.46
24
Jacob Greaves
Jacob Greaves Left Back
7.04

CONCLUSION

Southampton's power and form edges position them as pre-match favorites against higher-standing Ipswich Town, with home venue adding further impetus. The 5.7-point advantage underscores structural superiority, likely enabling control in key phases despite sparse set piece insights. Ipswich's second-place resilience demands caution, yet Southampton's metrics suggest they can exploit transitions effectively. This balanced Championship clash tilts toward a home victory, fueled by analytical strengths and St. Mary's atmosphere, advancing their promotion charge decisively.