Palermo vs Catanzaro preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Palermo PAL
Catanzaro CAT
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Palermo host Catanzaro in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Domestically, Palermo sit 4th in the table while Catanzaro are 5th. Power ranking favours Palermo by 6.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Palermo holds a 6.7-point power advantage, scoring 32.19 to Catanzaro's 25.51.
  • Form: Palermo's form score of 28.33 outpaces Catanzaro's 16.56.
  • Squad: Palermo sits 4th while Catanzaro occupies 5th in Serie B standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency statistics are unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics lack specific data for analysis here.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance shows low confidence from proxy data without xG.
  • xVariable: xG-based variables are not available due to data limitations.
  • Market: Projection split: Palermo 60.2% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.8% (Δ+0%) | Catanzaro 17% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: D
Cesena Rank: W
Frosinone Rank: D
Avellino Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Modena Rank: D
Avellino Rank: D
Monza Rank: D
Cesena Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palermo
60.16%
Draw
22.83%
Away Catanzaro
17.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.19
25.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Catanzaro
Power Score
32.19
25.51
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Catanzaro

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home
5 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
6
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:05:19+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Joronen
66 J. Joronen
N. Pierozzi
27 N. Pierozzi
P. Peda
29 P. Peda
P. Ceccaroni
32 P. Ceccaroni
R. Muati Modesto
18 R. Muati Modesto
J. Segre
8 J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
10 F. Ranocchia
T. Augello
3 T. Augello
J. Le Douaron
21 J. Le Douaron
A. Palumbo
5 A. Palumbo
J. Pohjanpalo
20 J. Pohjanpalo
M. Pigliacelli
22 M. Pigliacelli
C. Favasuli
27 C. Favasuli
F. Moreira Pacheco
6 F. Moreira Pacheco
M. Antonini Lui
4 M. Antonini Lui
T. Cassandro
84 T. Cassandro
F. Di Francesco
94 F. Di Francesco
S. Pontisso
20 S. Pontisso
J. Petriccione
10 J. Petriccione
G. Alesi
30 G. Alesi
M. Liberali
14 M. Liberali
F. Pittarello
8 F. Pittarello

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity
36365
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
7.02
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
7.11
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Midfielder
7.19
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto Midfielder
6.4
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Midfielder
6.71
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Centre Forward
7.22
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Left Back
7.01
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Central Midfield
6.85
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Central Midfield
7.3
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Right Back
6.92
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda Centre Back
6.73

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.77
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Midfielder
6.78
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
6.71
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Centre Forward
7
6
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack Left Back
6.93
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Central Midfield
7.02
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Central Midfield
7.2
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Right Back
6.92
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Right Back
6.98
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Central Midfield
6.81
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Left Back
6.94

CONCLUSION

Palermo approaches this Serie B clash with clear edges in power rating and form, positioning them favorably against nearby rivals Catanzaro. The hosts' 32.19 power score and 28.33 form mark dwarf the visitors' equivalents, signaling potential dominance at Stadio Renzo Barbera. League standings reflect parity at 4th and 5th, yet Palermo's home strength amplifies their 6.7-point lead. Without efficiency or set piece details from xG absence, overall metrics point to controlled play and likely victory. Catanzaro must defy projections to snag points, but Palermo seems primed to capitalize and bolster promotion aspirations.