Sampdoria vs Südtirol preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
SampdoriaSAM
SüdtirolSUD
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Sampdoria welcome Südtirol to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in a pivotal Serie B regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 12th and 13th respectively, both sides are locked in a tight mid-table battle, with Sampdoria holding a marginal power edge at 52.55 against Südtirol's 51.83, translating to a 0.7-point advantage. The hosts boast superior recent form, scoring 20.39 points to the visitors' meager 5, suggesting momentum swings in their favor. This encounter pits two evenly matched outfits, but Sampdoria's home advantage and structural superiority could prove decisive. Lacking detailed efficiency or set-piece metrics due to unavailable xG data, the focus shifts to overall cohesion and transitional play. Expect a cagey affair where fine margins will define the outcome in this relegation-avoidance scrap.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Sampdoria possess a 0.7-point power advantage over Südtirol with scores of 52.55 to 51.83.
  • Form: Sampdoria's form score of 20.39 dwarfs Südtirol's rating of 5.
  • Squad: Sampdoria sit 12th and Südtirol 13th in the Serie B standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition data remains unspecified in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence with no xG available for either team.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are not accessible due to data limitations.
  • Market: Sampdoria 41.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 31.2% (Δ+0%) | Südtirol 27% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
VS
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 52 D
Monza Rank: 65 L
Pescara Rank: 49 W
Empoli Rank: 54 W
Avellino Rank: 54 W
Carrarese Rank: 54 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: 52 L
Spezia Rank: 49 L
Modena Rank: 57 D
Cesena Rank: 52 D
Frosinone Rank: 67 L
Avellino Rank: 54 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sampdoria
41.84%
Draw
31.21%
Away Südtirol
26.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.55
51.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sampdoria
Südtirol
Power Score
52.55
51.83
League Position
12
13
Global Rank
704
731

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sampdoria Südtirol

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sampdoria SAM Home
6 matches
Südtirol SUD Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
5
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T12:30:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
A. Di Pardo
Italy
29 A. Di Pardo
M. Palma
Italy
13 M. Palma
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
S. Giordano
Italy
21 S. Giordano
M. Ricci
Italy
8 M. Ricci
O. Abildgaard
Denmark
28 O. Abildgaard
L. Cherubini
Italy
10 L. Cherubini
L. Henderson
Scotland
16 L. Henderson
T. Begić
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
M. Brunori Sandri
Italy
99 M. Brunori Sandri
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
H. El Kaouakibi
Morocco
94 H. El Kaouakibi
N. Pietrangeli
Italy
19 N. Pietrangeli
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
S. Davì
Italy
24 S. Davì
K. Zedadka
France
7 K. Zedadka
M. Frigerio
Italy
26 M. Frigerio
F. Tait
Italy
21 F. Tait
S. Molina
Italy
79 S. Molina
S. Merkaj
Albania
33 S. Merkaj
E. Pecorino
Italy
9 E. Pecorino

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity
33205
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Giuseppe Di Giacinto
Andrea Bianchini
Stefano Galimberti
Matteo Marchetti

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
6.8
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
6.73
13
Matteo Palma
Matteo Palma Defender
6.92
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Defender
6.72
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Defender
6.96
8
Matteo Ricci
Matteo Ricci Midfielder
6.75
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini Midfielder
6.9
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Midfielder
6.89
16
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Midfielder
6.81
28
Oliver Abildgaard
Oliver Abildgaard Midfielder
6.92
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori Attacker
6.84
Referee : Matteo Marchetti

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
6.74
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Defender
6.5
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
6.54
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Defender
6.88
7
Karim Zedadka
Karim Zedadka Midfielder
6.65
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait Midfielder
6.65
24
Simone Davi
Simone Davi Midfielder
6.62
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio Midfielder
6.57
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
6.93
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino Attacker
6.93
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker
6.65

CONCLUSION

Sampdoria enter as marginal favorites, leveraging their form supremacy and home turf at Luigi Ferraris to edge out Südtirol in this Serie B mid-table tussle. The 0.7-point power gap underscores their structural edge, while the visitors' poor form score signals vulnerability. Without granular set-piece or efficiency insights, victory may hinge on transitional sharpness and squad depth. A narrow home win seems likely, bolstering Sampdoria's position above the drop zone. Südtirol must summon resilience to claim a point, but the hosts' momentum points to three points in Genoa.