Sampdoria vs Südtirol preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Sampdoria SAM
Südtirol SUD
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Sampdoria welcome Südtirol to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris for a mid-table Serie B clash in the 2025/2026 regular season. Sitting 12th and 13th respectively, both sides are separated by fine margins, but Sampdoria hold a decisive edge with a power score of 23.75 against Südtirol's 16.55, translating to a 7.2-point advantage. Recent form underlines this gap, as Sampdoria's 20.39 rating towers over the visitors' meager 5. Home advantage at the iconic Luigi Ferraris could prove pivotal for the Blucerchiati, who have historically thrived in front of their passionate supporters. Südtirol, however, remain resilient, often grinding out results through disciplined defending. With limited advanced metrics available, this encounter hinges on Sampdoria's superior overall quality and momentum to secure vital points in the promotion hunt.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Sampdoria possess a 7.2-point power advantage over Südtirol.
  • Form: Sampdoria's form score stands at 20.39, far superior to Südtirol's 5.
  • Squad: Sampdoria occupy 12th place, one spot ahead of 13th-placed Südtirol.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not detailed in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not accessible for analysis.
  • Market: Projection split: Sampdoria 42.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.5% (Δ+0%) | Südtirol 28.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
VS
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: D
Monza Rank: L
Pescara Rank: W
Empoli Rank: W
Avellino Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: L
Spezia Rank: L
Modena Rank: D
Cesena Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: L
Avellino Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sampdoria
42.36%
Draw
29.49%
Away Südtirol
28.16%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.75
16.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sampdoria
Südtirol
Power Score
23.75
16.55
League Position
12
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sampdoria Südtirol

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sampdoria SAM Home
6 matches
Südtirol SUD Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
5
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:05:28+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
T. Martinelli
50 T. Martinelli
A. Di Pardo
29 A. Di Pardo
D. Hadzikadunic
17 D. Hadzikadunic
M. Viti
2 M. Viti
S. Giordano
21 S. Giordano
M. Ricci
8 M. Ricci
O. Abildgaard
28 O. Abildgaard
L. Cherubini
10 L. Cherubini
L. Henderson
16 L. Henderson
T. Begić
11 T. Begić
M. Brunori Sandri
99 M. Brunori Sandri
M. Adamonis
31 M. Adamonis
A. Masiello
5 A. Masiello
N. Pietrangeli
19 N. Pietrangeli
F. Veseli
34 F. Veseli
S. Davì
24 S. Davì
D. Casiraghi
17 D. Casiraghi
F. Tait
21 F. Tait
J. Martini
6 J. Martini
S. Molina
79 S. Molina
R. Tonin
11 R. Tonin
R. Odogwu
90 R. Odogwu

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Capacity
33205
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
6.8
99
Matteo Luigi Brunori
Matteo Luigi Brunori Centre Forward
6.84
8
Matteo Ricci
Matteo Ricci Defensive Midfield
6.75
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Left Wing
6.89
16
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Attacking Midfield
6.81
17
Dennis Hadzikadunic
Dennis Hadzikadunic Right Back
6.79
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Left Back
6.73
10
Luigi Cherubini
Luigi Cherubini Right Wing
6.9
28
Oliver Abildgaard
Oliver Abildgaard Defensive Midfield
6.92
29
Alessandro Di Pardo
Alessandro Di Pardo Right Back
6.96
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano Left Back
6.72

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
6.74
24
Simone Davi
Simone Davi Midfielder
6.62
79
Salvatore Molina
Salvatore Molina Midfielder
6.93
90
Raphael Odogwu
Raphael Odogwu Centre Forward
6.79
5
Andrea Masiello
Andrea Masiello Left Back
6.49
6
Jacopo Martini
Jacopo Martini Central Midfield
6.66
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi Central Midfield
7.03
21
Fabian Tait
Fabian Tait Central Midfield
6.65
11
Riccardo Tonin
Riccardo Tonin Attacking Midfield
6.65
19
Nicola Pietrangeli
Nicola Pietrangeli Centre Back
6.5
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Right Back
6.54

CONCLUSION

Sampdoria enter this Serie B showdown as clear favorites, bolstered by their higher power rating and dominant form score. Hosting at Luigi Ferraris amplifies their structural superiority against a gritty Südtirol outfit struggling for consistency. While set pieces and efficiency remain enigmas without xG data, Sampdoria's overall edge suggests they can control possession and convert chances effectively. Südtirol must disrupt transitions to stay competitive, but the Blucerchiati's momentum points to a home victory in this tight mid-table battle. Expect a professional display from the hosts to edge ahead.