Carrarese vs Cesena preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio dei Marmi Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Carrarese CAR
Cesena CES
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Carrarese host Cesena in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio dei Marmi. Domestically, Carrarese sit 10th in the table while Cesena are 9th. Power ranking favours Carrarese by 3.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Carrarese holds a 3.1-point power advantage over Cesena, reinforced by home venue at Stadio dei Marmi.
  • Form: Carrarese's form score of 18.39 outpaces Cesena's 13.28.
  • Squad: Carrarese ranks stronger overall with a power score of 21.81 versus Cesena's 18.69.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Limited data exists on transition play for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with no xG available for either side.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable, relying on proxy metrics with low confidence.
  • Market: Projection split: Carrarese 41.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.5% (Δ+0%) | Cesena 30.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
VS
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: L
Pescara Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: L
Spezia Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: D
Catanzaro Rank: W
Mantova Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Carrarese
41.47%
Draw
28.46%
Away Cesena
30.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.81
18.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Carrarese
Cesena
Power Score
21.81
18.69
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Cesena

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home
3 matches
Cesena CES Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:05:46+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Bleve
1 M. Bleve
S. Zanon
72 S. Zanon
J. Illanes Minucci
4 J. Illanes Minucci
F. Oliana
6 F. Oliana
D. Bouah
13 D. Bouah
G. Parlanti
77 G. Parlanti
N. Schiavi
18 N. Schiavi
L. Hasa
70 L. Hasa
N. Belloni
7 N. Belloni
T. Rubino
21 T. Rubino
M. Finotto
32 M. Finotto
A. Siano
1 A. Siano
T. Corazza
27 T. Corazza
M. Mangraviti
24 M. Mangraviti
G. Zaro
19 G. Zaro
A. Ciofi
15 A. Ciofi
D. Bisoli
25 D. Bisoli
S. Bastoni
10 S. Bastoni
M. Olivieri
32 M. Olivieri
T. Berti
14 T. Berti
C. Shpendi
9 C. Shpendi
A. Cerri
7 A. Cerri

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio dei Marmi
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Bleve
Marco Bleve Goalkeeper
6.83
7
Niccolò Belloni
Niccolò Belloni Midfielder
6.72
13
Devid Eugene Bouah
Devid Eugene Bouah Midfielder
6.69
21
Tommaso Rubino
Tommaso Rubino Attacker
6.75
32
Mattia Finotto
Mattia Finotto Attacker
6.67
4
Julián Illanes
Julián Illanes Centre Back
6.87
70
Luis Hasa
Luis Hasa Central Midfield
7.05
77
Gabriele Parlanti
Gabriele Parlanti Central Midfield
6.56
18
Nicolás Schiavi
Nicolás Schiavi Central Midfield
7.15
72
Simone Zanon
Simone Zanon Right Back
7.01
6
Filippo Oliana
Filippo Oliana Left Back
6.77

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Siano
Alessandro Siano Goalkeeper
7.38
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Centre Forward
7.04
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Right Back
7.06
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Attacking Midfield
7.04
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Right Back
6.8
24
Massimiliano Mangraviti
Massimiliano Mangraviti Left Back
6.78
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Defensive Midfield
6.84
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza Left Back
6.76
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri Left Wing
6.66
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Right Wing
6.71
10
Simone Bastoni
Simone Bastoni Defensive Midfield
6.66

CONCLUSION

Carrarese enters as marginal favorites, leveraging home soil and superior power and form metrics against a resilient Cesena outfit just one place ahead. The 3.1-point edge hints at control in possession and chance creation, though Cesena's proximity in standings demands respect. Without granular efficiency or set-piece insights, execution in open play will decide the outcome. Expect a tactical affair where Carrarese's strengths shine if they maintain discipline. A narrow home victory aligns with projections, boosting their mid-table push while testing Cesena's resolve.