Spezia vs Venezia preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Alberto Picco Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Spezia SPE
Venezia VEN
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In Serie B's 2025/2026 Regular Season, rock-bottom Spezia welcomes table-topping Venezia to Stadio Alberto Picco. Venezia arrives with commanding momentum, boasting a power score of 38.04 against Spezia's 17.07, translating to a 21-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form scores paint a stark picture too: Venezia's 30.67 dwarfs Spezia's 8.06, highlighting the hosts' struggles. As league leaders in 1st, Venezia seeks to extend their dominance, while 20th-placed Spezia battles relegation woes. No recent match details are available, shifting emphasis to broader metrics. Set piece analysis reveals low-confidence proxies without xG data for either side, limiting insights into dead-ball threats. Spezia's home turf offers faint hope, but Venezia's overall edge positions them to dictate play through superior transitions and efficiency, even if specifics remain elusive.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Venezia holds a 21-point power advantage with a score of 38.04 over Spezia's 17.07 and leads Serie B in 1st place while Spezia sits 20th.
  • Form: Venezia's form score stands at 30.67, far superior to Spezia's 8.06.
  • Squad: Power scores indicate Venezia's squad strength at 38.04 significantly exceeds Spezia's 17.07.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data is available for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data uses low-confidence proxies with no xG available for Spezia or Venezia.
  • xVariable: xG data is unavailable as the add-on is not enabled.
  • Market: Projection split: Spezia 21.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0%) | Venezia 53.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
VS
Venezia G. Stroppa
G. Stroppa
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.38
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: W
Mantova Rank: L
Carrarese Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Empoli Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: D
Juve Stabia Rank: W
Monza Rank: D
Calcio Padova Rank: W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spezia
21.28%
Draw
24.79%
Away Venezia
53.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.07
38.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spezia
Venezia
Power Score
17.07
38.04
League Position
20
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Venezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spezia Venezia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spezia SPE Home
12 matches
Venezia VEN Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
5
Draws
5
4
Losses
3
Goals
9
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
9
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:05:36+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. Mascardi
12 D. Mascardi
L. Sernicola
17 L. Sernicola
A. Matějů
37 A. Matějů
E. Adamo
70 E. Adamo
G. Aurelio
31 G. Aurelio
P. Beruatto
11 P. Beruatto
G. Di Serio
20 G. Di Serio
C. Comotto
34 C. Comotto
Á. Nagy
8 Á. Nagy
M. Valoti
5 M. Valoti
G. Lapadula
10 G. Lapadula
F. Stankovic
1 F. Stankovic
B. Franjić
4 B. Franjić
M. Svoboda
30 M. Svoboda
J. Schingtienne
3 J. Schingtienne
R. Haps
5 R. Haps
I. Doumbia
8 I. Doumbia
G. Busio
6 G. Busio
E. Pérez Muñoz
71 E. Pérez Muñoz
A. Hainaut
18 A. Hainaut
A. Adorante
9 A. Adorante
J. Zamora
10 J. Zamora

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Alberto Picco
Capacity
10336
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

12
Diego Mascardi
Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper
6.8
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti Midfielder
7.15
20
Giuseppe Di Serio
Giuseppe Di Serio Midfielder
6.65
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula Centre Forward
6.85
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto Central Midfield
6.69
70
Emanuele Adamo
Emanuele Adamo Centre Back
6.63
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Right Back
6.81
8
Ádám Nagy
Ádám Nagy Central Midfield
6.55
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto Left Back
6.83
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola Right Back
6.71
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Left Back
6.62

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Stanković
Filip Stanković Goalkeeper
7.06
5
Ridgeciano Haps
Ridgeciano Haps Midfielder
6.86
18
Antoine Hainaut
Antoine Hainaut Midfielder
7.12
9
Andrea Adorante
Andrea Adorante Attacker
6.98
10
John Yeboah
John Yeboah Attacker
7.33
4
Bartol Franjic
Bartol Franjic Left Back
6.82
6
Gianluca Busio
Gianluca Busio Central Midfield
7.35
30
Michael Svoboda
Michael Svoboda Centre Back
7.13
71
Kike Pérez
Kike Pérez Central Midfield
7.25
8
Issa Doumbia
Issa Doumbia Central Midfield
7.01
3
Joël Schingtienne
Joël Schingtienne Right Back
6.77

CONCLUSION

Venezia's overwhelming advantages in power, form, and league position make them heavy favorites against struggling Spezia. The 21-point edge and top-table status suggest Venezia will control possession and create more chances, even at Stadio Alberto Picco. Spezia's poor form score signals vulnerability, particularly without reliable set-piece or efficiency insights. Home support might spark resistance, but Venezia's squad depth should prevail in transitions and open play. A comfortable away win appears likely, solidifying their lead while deepening Spezia's relegation fight.