Mantova vs Monza preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Danilo Martelli Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Mantova MAN
Monza MON
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Mantova hosts Monza at Stadio Danilo Martelli in a Serie B regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 11th domestically, the home side confronts 3rd-placed opponents wielding a substantial power score edge of 35.31 to 25.61, equating to a 9.7-point superiority. Form assessments mirror this disparity, with Monza at 28.33 versus Mantova's 24.22. Structural advantages position Monza as the stronger team overall. Set piece evaluations draw from low-confidence proxies amid unavailable xG data, obscuring precise dead-ball efficiencies for both squads. Home advantage could fuel Mantova's resistance, yet Monza's elevated standing hints at away prowess. Contests for midfield supremacy and rapid counters promise intensity, testing defensive resolve in this pivotal clash.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Monza claims a 9.7-point power advantage with a score of 35.31 over Mantova's 25.61.
  • Form: Monza edges form metrics at 28.33 compared to Mantova's 24.22.
  • Squad: League standings place Monza 3rd and Mantova 11th domestically.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play statistics are not detailed in available metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis uses low-confidence proxies without xG availability.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable as add-on disabled for both teams.
  • Market: Mantova 21% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.9% (Δ+0%) | Monza 52.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.12
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: W
Avellino Rank: L
Spezia Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Modena Rank: L
Cesena Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Catanzaro Rank: D
Venezia Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mantova
20.98%
Draw
26.85%
Away Monza
52.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.61
35.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mantova
Monza
Power Score
25.61
35.31
League Position
11
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Monza

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home
1 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:05:54+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
F. Bardi
24 F. Bardi
A. Dembélé
3 A. Dembélé
S. Cella
29 S. Cella
A. Castellini
27 A. Castellini
T. Maggioni
96 T. Maggioni
S. Trimboli
21 S. Trimboli
R. Kouda
80 R. Kouda
F. Benaissa-Yahia
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
T. Marras
23 T. Marras
F. Ruocco
19 F. Ruocco
L. Mancuso
9 L. Mancuso
D. Thiam
20 D. Thiam
A. Carboni
44 A. Carboni
F. Delli Carri
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Ravanelli
13 L. Ravanelli
S. Birindelli
19 S. Birindelli
M. Pessina
32 M. Pessina
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
A. Bakoune
24 A. Bakoune
P. Cutrone
10 P. Cutrone
A. Colpani
28 A. Colpani
A. Petagna
37 A. Petagna

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Capacity
7487
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
6.61
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco Midfielder
6.88
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Midfielder
6.65
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras Midfielder
6.97
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Midfielder
6.81
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso Centre Forward
6.7
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Right Back
6.8
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Centre Back
6.81
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Central Midfield
6.95
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Left Back
7.03
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Central Midfield
7.03

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
7.06
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Midfielder
6.85
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani Midfielder
7.07
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Midfielder
6.97
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune Midfielder
6.69
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Centre Forward
6.92
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Right Back
7.09
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Central Midfield
6.94
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Centre Back
6.86
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni Left Back
6.95
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Central Midfield
7.13

CONCLUSION

Monza arrives with clear structural superiority, boasting a 9.7-point power lead and superior form score alongside their 3rd-place perch over Mantova's 11th. Home turf at Stadio Danilo Martelli offers Mantova a fighting chance, yet metrics heavily favor the visitors. Absent granular insights into efficiency, transitions, and set pieces, the emphasis falls on Monza's overall quality. This Serie B showdown tests Mantova's resolve against a higher-caliber foe, where midfield battles and defensive discipline shape outcomes. Monza's strengths position them to capitalize effectively.