Empoli vs Avellino preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Carlo Castellani Tomorrow - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Empoli EMP
Avellino AVE
KICKOFF : Tomorrow - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Empoli host Avellino in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Carlo Castellani. Domestically, Empoli sit 16th in the table while Avellino are 8th. Power ranking favours Avellino by 7.5 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Empoli, 16th at home, faces 8th-placed Avellino, who enjoy a 7.5-point power advantage.
  • Form: Avellino's form score of 21.06 significantly outpaces Empoli's 8.94.
  • Squad: Avellino's squad power score of 24.68 exceeds Empoli's 17.23.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable due to lack of advanced metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance metrics absent with low-confidence proxies and no xG data.
  • xVariable: No xG or advanced variable metrics provided for analysis.
  • Market: Empoli 42.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 29.1% (Δ+0%) | Avellino 28.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Empoli F. Caserta
F. Caserta
VS
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: L
Virtus Entella Rank: D
Calcio Padova Rank: L
Sampdoria Rank: L
Pescara Rank: W
Spezia Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Mantova Rank: W
Catanzaro Rank: D
Palermo Rank: L
Sampdoria Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Empoli
42.39%
Draw
29.14%
Away Avellino
28.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.23
24.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Empoli
Avellino
Power Score
17.23
24.68
League Position
16
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Empoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Empoli Avellino

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Empoli EMP Home
7 matches
Avellino AVE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
8
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:06:28+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Fulignati
21 A. Fulignati
G. Guarino
34 G. Guarino
S. Romagnoli
4 S. Romagnoli
M. Lovato
20 M. Lovato
A. Candela
26 A. Candela
L. Magnino
8 L. Magnino
G. Yepes Laut
14 G. Yepes Laut
T. Ebuehi
24 T. Ebuehi
J. Ceesay
15 J. Ceesay
R. Ilie
10 R. Ilie
S. Shpendi
11 S. Shpendi
A. Iannarilli
1 A. Iannarilli
A. Fontanarosa
63 A. Fontanarosa
A. Izzo
4 A. Izzo
P. Enrici
56 P. Enrici
T. Cancellotti
29 T. Cancellotti
M. Besaggio
39 M. Besaggio
L. Palmiero
6 L. Palmiero
D. Sounas
24 D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
20 M. Palumbo
R. Russo
10 R. Russo
C. Patierno
9 C. Patierno

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Carlo Castellani
Capacity
16284
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

21
Andrea Fulignati
Andrea Fulignati Goalkeeper
6.77
15
Joseph Ceesay
Joseph Ceesay Midfielder
6.53
10
Rareș Ilie
Rareș Ilie Midfielder
6.65
24
Tyronne Ebuehi
Tyronne Ebuehi Midfielder
6.56
26
Antonio Candela
Antonio Candela Midfielder
6.6
11
Stiven Shpendi
Stiven Shpendi Centre Forward
6.88
20
Matteo Lovato
Matteo Lovato Left Back
6.8
14
Gerard Yepes
Gerard Yepes Central Midfield
6.75
34
Gabriele Guarino
Gabriele Guarino Right Back
6.93
4
Simone Romagnoli
Simone Romagnoli Centre Back
6.21
8
Luca Magnino
Luca Magnino Central Midfield
6.69

Starting XI ▼

1
Antony Iannarilli
Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper
6.75
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
6.61
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker
6.83
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Left Back
7.17
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Central Midfield
6.83
63
Alessandro Fontanarosa
Alessandro Fontanarosa Left Back
6.79
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Attacking Midfield
6.87
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Central Midfield
6.96
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Right Back
6.68
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Central Midfield
6.79
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Right Back
6.7

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Avellino holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Avellino a 7.5-point edge. External projection is Empoli 42.3%, draw 29.4%, and Avellino 28.3%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.