Livingston vs Aberdeen preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tony Macaroni Arena Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Premiership
Livingston LIV
Aberdeen ABE
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Livingston welcome Aberdeen to Tony Macaroni Arena for a Scottish Premiership 2nd Phase clash in the 2025/2026 season. Sitting 12th in the table, the hosts face a tougher challenge against 8th-placed Aberdeen, who hold a clear structural edge with a power score of 17.5 versus Livingston's 13.92, equating to a 3.6-point advantage. Form metrics reinforce this, as Aberdeen's 15.61 rating outpaces Livingston's 13.5, suggesting better momentum heading into the fixture. League positions highlight Aberdeen's superior squad depth and consistency. However, home advantage could play a role for Livingston in this mid-table encounter. Set piece analysis is hampered by low-confidence proxy data with no xG available, limiting insights into dead-ball threats. Efficiency and transition stats remain unavailable, pointing to a matchup where Aberdeen's overall metrics may dominate unless Livingston disrupts effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aberdeen holds a 3.6-point power advantage with a 17.5 score over Livingston's 13.92.
  • Form: Aberdeen's form score of 15.61 exceeds Livingston's 13.5.
  • Squad: Aberdeen occupies 8th place in the league, ahead of Livingston in 12th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided for this fixture.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with no xG data available due to proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable as the add-on is not enabled.
  • Market: Projection split: Livingston 33.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.2% (Δ+0%) | Aberdeen 39.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
VS
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
0.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: W
Dundee United Rank: L
Hearts Rank: D
Kilmarnock Rank: L
Hibernian Rank: D
St. Mirren Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: W
Hibernian Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: L
Rangers Rank: L
Falkirk Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Livingston
33.57%
Draw
27.15%
Away Aberdeen
39.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
13.92
17.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Livingston
Aberdeen
Power Score
13.92
17.5
League Position
12
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Livingston Aberdeen

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Livingston LIV Home
26 matches
Aberdeen ABE Away
Match Record
4
Wins
15
7
Draws
7
15
Losses
4
Goals
20
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
20
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-28T00:08:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Prior
28 J. Prior
B. Kabongolo
23 B. Kabongolo
D. Wilson
27 D. Wilson
R. McGowan
5 R. McGowan
D. Finlayson
19 D. Finlayson
M. Sylla
24 M. Sylla
S. Arfield
37 S. Arfield
C. Montaño Castillo
26 C. Montaño Castillo
L. Smith
15 L. Smith
S. May
17 S. May
J. Nouble
7 J. Nouble
D. Mitov
1 D. Mitov
G. Molloy
21 G. Molloy
L. Morrison
23 L. Morrison
J. Milne
22 J. Milne
M. Frame
3 M. Frame
S. Armstrong
16 S. Armstrong
A. Aremu
32 A. Aremu
A. Jensen
28 A. Jensen
L. Cameron
25 L. Cameron
K. Nisbet
15 K. Nisbet
T. Olusanya
20 T. Olusanya

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Tony Macaroni Arena
Capacity
9672
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.85
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Midfielder
6.76
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Midfielder
6.7
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
6.89
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Attacker
6.82
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Centre Back
6.56
5
Ryan McGowan
Ryan McGowan Left Back
6.62
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Attacking Midfield
6.8
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield Central Midfield
6.58
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Central Midfield
6.79
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo Right Back
6.85

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
6.83
3
Mitchel Frame
Mitchel Frame Midfielder
6.76
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen Midfielder
6.71
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
6.86
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
6.54
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Centre Back
6.58
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Central Midfield
6.97
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Left Back
6.73
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Right Back
6.74
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron Attacking Midfield
6.58
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Central Midfield
6.86

CONCLUSION

Aberdeen enters as the stronger outfit, backed by superior power and form scores that underscore their edge in this Premiership encounter. Livingston's 12th-place standing and home venue offer hope for an upset, but the 3.6-point deficit and higher league position for the visitors suggest a tactical uphill battle. With limited data on set pieces, efficiency, and transitions, the focus shifts to Aberdeen's consistency potentially shining through. Expect a competitive affair where the Dons' metrics tilt the balance, though Livingston could exploit any lapses to force a result.