Leeds United vs Burnley preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Elland Road Fri, 1 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Leeds United LEE
Burnley BUR
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 7:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Leeds United host Burnley at Elland Road in a Premier League regular season encounter from the 2025/2026 campaign. Positioned 15th, Leeds command a substantial edge over 19th-placed Burnley, evidenced by a power score of 26.93 against 13.16, translating to a 13.8-point advantage that marks them as the clearly stronger side. Form scores further highlight the gulf, with Leeds at 20.28 compared to Burnley's dismal 2.67, suggesting momentum favors the hosts decisively. Absent recent outing details, analysis leans on these core metrics amid sparse set piece data featuring low-confidence proxies and unavailable xG stats for both attack and defense. This fixture contrasts a mid-table aspirant harnessing structural superiority against relegation-threatened visitors vulnerable on the road, where Leeds' blend of power and form positions them to dictate terms effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Leeds United holds a 13.8-point power advantage over Burnley with scores of 26.93 to 13.16.
  • Form: Leeds United's form score of 20.28 vastly outpaces Burnley's 2.67.
  • Squad: No specific squad changes or injury updates available for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies with no xG data available for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Leeds United 66.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 21.3% (Δ+0%) | Burnley 12.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
VS
Burnley S. Parker
S. Parker
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.4
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: W
Brentford Rank: D
Crystal Palace Rank: D
Sunderland Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: L
Nottingham Forest Rank: L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Fulham Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Everton Rank: L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 4 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leeds United
66.55%
Draw
21.3%
Away Burnley
12.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.93
13.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leeds United
Burnley
Power Score
26.93
13.16
League Position
15
19
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leeds United Burnley

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leeds United LEE Home
22 matches
Burnley BUR Away
Match Record
11
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
11
Goals
29
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
29
+8
Goal Difference
-8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:27:17+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
L. Estella Perri
1 L. Estella Perri
J. Justin
24 J. Justin
J. Bijol
15 J. Bijol
P. Struijk
5 P. Struijk
J. Bogle
2 J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
4 E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
22 A. Tanaka
G. Gudmundsson
3 G. Gudmundsson
B. Aaronson
11 B. Aaronson
N. Okafor
19 N. Okafor
D. Calvert-Lewin
9 D. Calvert-Lewin
M. Dúbravka
1 M. Dúbravka
Q. Hartman
3 Q. Hartman
M. Esteve
5 M. Esteve
B. Humphreys
12 B. Humphreys
H. Ekdal
18 H. Ekdal
K. Walker
2 K. Walker
J. Anthony
11 J. Anthony
J. Laurent
29 J. Laurent
J. Ward-Prowse
20 J. Ward-Prowse
L. Tchaouna
17 L. Tchaouna
Z. Flemming
19 Z. Flemming

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Elland Road
Capacity
40242
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Lucas Perri
Lucas Perri Goalkeeper
6.51
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Midfielder
6.59
3
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Gabriel Gudmundsson Midfielder
6.65
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Midfielder
6.79
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Midfielder
6.76
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Centre Forward
6.9
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Centre Back
6.88
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Central Midfield
6.99
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Left Back
6.93
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Central Midfield
6.79
24
James Justin
James Justin Right Back
6.9

Starting XI ▼

1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
6.87
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Midfielder
6.84
17
Loum Tchaouna
Loum Tchaouna Midfielder
6.56
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Centre Forward
6.86
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker Right Back
6.53
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Left Back
6.74
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Left Back
6.67
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Centre Back
6.81
18
Hjalmar Ekdal
Hjalmar Ekdal Right Back
6.68
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Central Midfield
6.93
29
Josh Laurent
Josh Laurent Central Midfield
6.48

CONCLUSION

Leeds United approach this home clash with compelling advantages in power rating, form, and league position, positioning them to exploit Burnley's struggles at 19th and poor 2.67 form score. The 13.8-point structural edge underscores Leeds' dominance at Elland Road, where they can impose control despite limited set piece and efficiency insights. Burnley faces a steep challenge to bridge the gap, relying on defensive resilience against a superior opponent. Overall projections align with Leeds securing a result that boosts their mid-table standing, capitalizing on momentum in this uneven matchup.