Bristol City vs Stoke City preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Ashton Gate Stadium Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Bristol City BSC
Stoke City STK
KICKOFF : Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Bristol City host Stoke City in Championship (Regular Season) at Ashton Gate Stadium. Domestically, Bristol City sit 13th in the table while Stoke City are 17th. Power ranking favours Bristol City by 10.1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Bristol City hold a 10.1 point power advantage over Stoke City.
  • Form: Bristol City's form score of 19.22 dwarfs Stoke City's 1.78.
  • Squad: Bristol City rank 13th, ahead of Stoke City in 17th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition data unavailable in this analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats unavailable with low confidence proxy data.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable for attack and defence.
  • Market: Bristol City 48.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.6% (Δ+0%) | Stoke City 25.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Bristol City R. Hodgson
R. Hodgson
VS
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.97
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: L
Southampton Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: W
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Portsmouth Rank: L
Millwall Rank: L
Wrexham Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 2 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bristol City
48.94%
Draw
25.61%
Away Stoke City
25.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.89
11.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bristol City
Stoke City
Power Score
21.89
11.81
League Position
13
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bristol City Stoke City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bristol City BSC Home
18 matches
Stoke City STK Away
Match Record
9
Wins
7
2
Draws
2
7
Losses
9
Goals
23
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
23
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:27:59+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium
Ashton Gate Stadium
Capacity
1500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

13
Joe Lumley
Joe Lumley Goalkeeper
32
Lewis Thomas
Lewis Thomas Goalkeeper
23
Radek Vítek
Radek Vítek Goalkeeper
16
Robert Dickie
Robert Dickie Defender
2
Ross McCrorie
Ross McCrorie Defender
21
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Neto
Vivaldo Borges dos Santos Neto Defender
19
George Tanner
George Tanner Defender
5
Robert Atkinson
Robert Atkinson Defender
3
Cameron Pring
Cameron Pring Defender
38
Noah Eile
Noah Eile Defender
15
Luke McNally
Luke McNally Defender
24
Sebastian Naylor
Sebastian Naylor Defender
33
Josh Campbell-Slowey
Josh Campbell-Slowey Defender
40
Sam Morsy
Sam Morsy Midfielder
8
Joe Williams
Joe Williams Midfielder
10
Scott Twine
Scott Twine Midfielder
17
Mark Sykes
Mark Sykes Midfielder
6
Max Bird
Max Bird Midfielder
14
Tomi Horvat
Tomi Horvat Midfielder
12
Jason Knight
Jason Knight Midfielder
4
Adam Randell
Adam Randell Midfielder
44
George Earthy
George Earthy Midfielder
28
Adam Murphy
Adam Murphy Midfielder
18
Emil Riis Jakobsen
Emil Riis Jakobsen Attacker
11
Delano Burgzorg
Delano Burgzorg Attacker
30
Sinclair Armstrong
Sinclair Armstrong Attacker
20
Samuel John Bell
Samuel John Bell Attacker

Squad ▼

34
Frank Fielding
Frank Fielding Goalkeeper
1
Viktor Johansson
Viktor Johansson Goalkeeper
31
Gavin Bazunu
Gavin Bazunu Goalkeeper
25
Tommy Simkim
Tommy Simkim Goalkeeper
3
Aaron Cresswell
Aaron Cresswell Defender
23
Ben Gibson
Ben Gibson Defender
16
Ben Wilmot
Ben Wilmot Defender
17
Eric Junior Bocat
Eric Junior Bocat Defender
40
Maksym Talovierov
Maksym Talovierov Defender
18
Mohammed Bosun Lawal
Mohammed Bosun Lawal Defender
22
J. Tchamadeu
J. Tchamadeu Defender
26
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips Defender
15
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi
Steven N'Kemboanza Mike Christopher Nzonzi Midfielder
8
Lewis Baker
Lewis Baker Midfielder
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson Midfielder
12
Tatsuki Seko
Tatsuki Seko Midfielder
19
Tomáš Rigo
Tomáš Rigo Midfielder
10
Joon-Ho Bae
Joon-Ho Bae Midfielder
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher Attacker
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Attacker
11
Róbert Boženík
Róbert Boženík Attacker
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Attacker
21
Jesuran Rak-Sakyi
Jesuran Rak-Sakyi Attacker
9
Divin Mubama
Divin Mubama Attacker
29
Lamine Cisse
Lamine Cisse Attacker
—
Ato Ampah
Ato Ampah Attacker
49
Milan Smit
Milan Smit Attacker

CONCLUSION

Bristol City enter as firm favorites against Stoke City, leveraging a superior power score and dominant form edge at Ashton Gate. The 10.1 point structural advantage, coupled with 13th versus 17th positioning, positions the hosts to dictate terms in this Championship encounter. Absent granular set piece or efficiency insights, broader metrics underscore Bristol's control potential. Stoke's poor form demands a defensive masterclass and counter threat to compete. Projections align with home strength at 48.5%, suggesting the Robins claim vital points in a match shaping mid-table fortunes. Expect Bristol's cohesion to prevail.