Wrexham vs Middlesbrough preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Racecourse Ground Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Wrexham WXH
Middlesbrough MID
KICKOFF : Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Wrexham host Middlesbrough in Championship (Regular Season) at Racecourse Ground. Domestically, Wrexham sit 6th in the table while Middlesbrough are 4th. Power ranking favours Wrexham by 0.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Wrexham possess a slight 0.7-point power advantage over fourth-placed Middlesbrough.
  • Form: Wrexham's form score of 14.67 outpaces Middlesbrough's 12.56.
  • Squad: Sixth-placed Wrexham face fourth-placed Middlesbrough in a competitive league encounter.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics not available in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: xG variables inaccessible for both teams.
  • Market: Wrexham 34.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.9% (Δ+0%) | Middlesbrough 38.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
VS
Middlesbrough K. Hellberg
K. Hellberg
1.66
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.69
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Coventry City Rank: L
Oxford United Rank: W
Stoke City Rank: W
Birmingham City Rank: L
Southampton Rank: L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Watford Rank: W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: D
Portsmouth Rank: L
Swansea City Rank: D
Millwall Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Wrexham
34.78%
Draw
26.92%
Away Middlesbrough
38.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.63
23.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Power Score
24.63
23.9
League Position
6
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Middlesbrough — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Wrexham Middlesbrough

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Wrexham WXH Home
1 matches
Middlesbrough MID Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:28:52+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium
Racecourse Ground
Capacity
10771
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

21
Danny Ward
Danny Ward Goalkeeper
25
Callum Burton
Callum Burton Goalkeeper
1
Arthur Okonkwo
Arthur Okonkwo Goalkeeper
31
Reuben Egan
Reuben Egan Goalkeeper
6
Zak Vyner
Zak Vyner Defender
29
Ryan Barnett
Ryan Barnett Defender
5
Dominic Hyam
Dominic Hyam Defender
24
Dan Scarr
Dan Scarr Defender
13
Liberato Gianpaolo Cacace
Liberato Gianpaolo Cacace Defender
22
Thomas O'Connor
Thomas O'Connor Defender
3
Lewis Brunt
Lewis Brunt Defender
12
Issa Kabore
Issa Kabore Defender
4
Max Cleworth
Max Cleworth Defender
2
Callum Doyle
Callum Doyle Defender
34
Aaron James
Aaron James Defender
37
Matty James
Matty James Midfielder
15
George Dobson
George Dobson Midfielder
20
Oliver Rathbone
Oliver Rathbone Midfielder
10
Josh Windass
Josh Windass Midfielder
18
Ben Sheaf
Ben Sheaf Midfielder
47
Ryan Longman
Ryan Longman Midfielder
27
Lewis O'Brien
Lewis O'Brien Midfielder
14
George Thomason
George Thomason Midfielder
16
Jay Rodriguez
Jay Rodriguez Attacker
19
Kieffer Moore
Kieffer Moore Attacker
28
Samuel Toby Smith
Samuel Toby Smith Attacker
7
Davis Keillor-Dunn
Davis Keillor-Dunn Attacker
33
Nathan Broadhead
Nathan Broadhead Attacker
11
Bailey Cadamarteri
Bailey Cadamarteri Attacker
42
Callum Steven Edwards
Callum Steven Edwards Attacker

Squad ▼

32
Joe Wildsmith
Joe Wildsmith Goalkeeper
33
Jon McLaughlin
Jon McLaughlin Goalkeeper
1
Timothy Dieng
Timothy Dieng Goalkeeper
31
Solomon Brynn
Solomon Brynn Goalkeeper
3
Matt Targett
Matt Targett Defender
26
Darragh Lenihan
Darragh Lenihan Defender
12
Luke Ayling
Luke Ayling Defender
6
Dael Fry
Dael Fry Defender
2
Callum Brittain
Callum Brittain Defender
25
Samuel George Edmundson
Samuel George Edmundson Defender
5
Alfie Jones
Alfie Jones Defender
24
Alex Bangura
Alex Bangura Defender
29
Adilson Malanda
Adilson Malanda Defender
15
F. Munroe
F. Munroe Defender
16
Alan Browne
Alan Browne Midfielder
8
Riley McGree
Riley McGree Midfielder
7
Hayden Hackney
Hayden Hackney Midfielder
18
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris Midfielder
14
Alex Gilbert
Alex Gilbert Midfielder
23
Leo Alexander Francis Castledine
Leo Alexander Francis Castledine Midfielder
28
Law McCabe
Law McCabe Midfielder
13
Dávid Strelec
Dávid Strelec Attacker
11
Morgan Whittaker
Morgan Whittaker Attacker
27
Sontje Hansen
Sontje Hansen Attacker
22
Samuel Silvera
Samuel Silvera Attacker
17
Micah Hamilton
Micah Hamilton Attacker
20
Mamadou Kaly Sene
Mamadou Kaly Sene Attacker
45
Jeremy Leonel Sarmiento Morante
Jeremy Leonel Sarmiento Morante Attacker
9
Tommy Conway
Tommy Conway Attacker

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Wrexham holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Wrexham a 0.7-point edge. External projection is Wrexham 36.7%, draw 26.9%, and Middlesbrough 36.4%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.