FC Utrecht vs NAC Breda preview
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadion Galgenwaard
Sat, 2 May - 2:30 PM
Round 32 ·
Regular Season
|
Mohamed Nassoh 35'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
CONTEXT
FC Utrecht claimed a 2-0 home victory over NAC Breda, breaking a goalless halftime deadlock with both goals arriving after the visitors were reduced to 10 men via a red card. Dominating possession at 66% to 34%, Utrecht asserted control as the stronger team, converting second-half pressure into a clean-sheet win. The result featured a significant 44.6% structural deviation favoring the hosts, while efficiency stayed in line with expectations. Market alignment held true, though xG data absence prevents deeper chance quality insights. The red card distortion markedly altered dynamics post-interval, enabling Utrecht's clinical edge. NAC Breda struggled to respond, underscoring disciplinary costs in a lopsided affair.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Match showed significant 44.6% structural deviation favoring FC Utrecht.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
-
Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed true for FC Utrecht win.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
-
Event impact: Red card to NAC Breda created substantial event impact.
-
Red card distortion: Red card distortion influenced second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Bos
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.79
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.1
R. de Nas
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.79
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.1
D. Frijn
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.79
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.1
T. Hardeman
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.79
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.1
R. Jans
VS
C. Hoefkens
1.48
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.65
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Excelsior
Rank: 58
L
Telstar
Rank: 61
W
PSV
Rank: 86
L
Go Ahead Eagles
Rank: 67
W
FC Twente
Rank: 76
W
Heracles Almelo
Rank: 56
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ajax
Rank: 75
L
Fortuna Sittard
Rank: 61
D
Sparta Rotterdam
Rank: 65
D
PEC Zwolle
Rank: 63
L
Go Ahead Eagles
Rank: 67
L
Feyenoord
Rank: 76
D
12
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 7 - 8
8
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Utrecht
55.35%
Draw
23.38%
NAC Breda
21.27%
Movement
Changes since opening
FC Utrecht
-41.13%
Draw
+20.05%
NAC Breda
+21.08%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.13
54.29
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
Power Score
71.13
54.29
League Position
7
17
Global Rank
180
662
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
FC Utrecht
—
Opponent-weighted form score
NAC Breda
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
FC Utrecht NAC Breda
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
FC Utrecht
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
NAC Breda
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Utrecht
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
NAC Breda
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.91
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
FC Utrecht
+1.63
Efficiency Index
vs
NAC Breda
-1.63
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Utrecht
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
NAC Breda
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
FC Utrecht
vs
NAC Breda
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Utrecht
0.41
NAC Breda
0.24
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
FC Utrecht
0.00
NAC Breda
0.03
FC Utrecht
NAC Breda
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- UTR had peak pressure around 92'.
- UTR started the game with stronger pressure.
UTR Pressure
NAC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
UTR reached the top pressure at 92' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
FC Utrecht
UTR
Home
27
matches
NAC Breda
NAC
Away
Match Record
12
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
12
Goals
47
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
47
+13
Goal Difference
-13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:55+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-3-3
Match Formation
4-4-2
1 V. Barkas
J. Karlsson
#1146'
16 S. Elkarouani
27 A. Engwanda
21 G. Zechiël
77 Ángel Galiot
S. Haller
#9165'
18 A. Stepanov
C. Bozdogan
#890+4'
10 Y. Cathline
99 D. Bielica
4 B. Kemper
8 C. Leemans
R. Paula
#1190'
15 E. Mahmutovic
3 D. Odoi
P. Reulen
#2690+5'
14 K. Sowah
B. Ghalidi
#5590'
16 M. Balard
10 M. Nassoh
R. Hillen
#2272'
25 C. Valerius
M. Soumano
#972'
24 André Ayew Pelé
J. Candelaria
#2181'
90 L. Holtby
General Information
Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Galgenwaard
Capacity
23750
Attendance
23034
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alex Bos
Roy de Nas
Don Frijn
Thomas Hardeman
Next Match
FC Utrecht
vs
Ajax
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena
NAC Breda
vs
SC Heerenveen
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sun, 10 May - 2:45 PM
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion
Statistics
Possession
UTR
63%
NAC
37%
Top Statistics
2
Goals
0
4
Big Chances Created
0
19
Shots
7
68
Dangerous attacks
37
66
Possession
34
8
Corners
4
13
Free kicks
12
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
14
Throwins
19
9
Goal Kicks
15
50
Successful Dribbles Percentage
33
18
Dribble Attempts
9
9
Successful Dribbles
3
23
Successful Headers
21
100
Ball Safe
97
19
Goal Attempts
4
6
Substitutions
6
1
Assists
0
Attacking
116
Attacks
74
2
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
504
Passes
262
69
Successful Long Passes Percentage
37
36
Long Passes
63
88
Successful Passes Percentage
69
25
Successful Long Passes
23
24
Key Passes
7
444
Successful Passes
180
Defensive
1
Saves
9
10
Interceptions
4
11
Tackles
16
56
Duels Won
51
Build-up
16
Accurate Crosses
7
40
Total Crosses
18
Discipline
12
Fouls
13
1
Offsides
0
Lineup
Referee :
Alex Bos
Manager ▼
R. Jans
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Vasilios Barkas
Goalkeeper
7.03 16
Souffian El Karouani
Defender
7.38 11Jesper Karlsson
6.87Attacker46'
27
Alonzo Engwanda
Midfielder
6.83 8Can Bozdogan
6.74Midfielder90+4'
18
Artem Stepanov
Attacker
6.76 91Sébastien Haller
6.93Attacker65'
Substitutes ▼
33
Kevin Gadellaa
Goalkeeper
51
Mees Eppink
Goalkeeper
5
Emeka Adiele
Defender
6.11 
53
Neal Viereck
Defender
Referee :
Alex Bos
Manager ▼
C. Hoefkens
Coach
Starting XI ▼
99
Daniel Bielica
Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Denis Odoi
Defender
6.65 4
Boy Kemper
Defender
6.92 8
Clint Leemans
Defender
6.78 15
Enes Mahmutovic
Defender
6.59 11Raul Paula
6.7Midfielder90'
10
Mohamed Nassoh
Midfielder
6.94
14
Kamal Sowah
Midfielder
6.72 26Pepijn Reulen
6.58Attacker90+5'
16
Max Balard
Midfielder
6.72
55Brahim Ghalidi
6.77Attacker90'
25
Cherrion Valerius
Midfielder
6.61 22Rio Hillen
6.79Defender72'
24
André Ayew
Attacker
6.66 9Moussa Soumano
6.8Attacker72'
90
Lewis Holtby
Attacker
6.82 21Jayden Candelaria
6.42Defender81'
Substitutes ▼
1
Roy Kortsmit
Goalkeeper
31
Kostas Lamprou
Goalkeeper
5.94 7
Charles-Andreas Brym
Attacker
6.81 19
Amine Salama
Attacker
6.6 
Events
2ND-HALF
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+9'
90+5'
Pepijn Reulen → Kamal Sowah
12th Substitution
Can Bozdogan → Yoann Cathline
11th Substitution
90+4'
90'
Brahim Ghalidi → Max Balard
9th Substitution
90'
Raul Paula → Enes Mahmutovic
10th Substitution
8th Substitution
89'
Goal awarded
88'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
86'
82'
Daniel Bielica
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Jayden Candelaria → Lewis Holtby
7th Substitution
6th Substitution
74'
72'
Rio Hillen → Cherrion Valerius
4th Substitution
72'
Moussa Soumano → André Ayew
5th Substitution
3rd Substitution
66'
Sébastien Haller → Artem Stepanov
2nd Substitution
65'
Jesper Karlsson → Mike Eerdhuijzen
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
40'
Max Balard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
Mohamed Nassoh
Foul / 1st Redcard
34'
Mohamed Nassoh
Card adjusted
CONCLUSION
FC Utrecht's 2-0 triumph over NAC Breda exemplified home dominance, with 66% possession and second-half strikes sealing the deal after NAC's red card. As the stronger side, Utrecht's execution aligned with market views and efficiency norms, despite a notable 44.6% structural deviation amplifying the margin. The red card distortion proved decisive, reshaping the contest post-halftime from stalemate to statement win. Lacking xG data limits nuance, yet Utrecht's control and conversion highlighted tactical maturity. NAC Breda paid dearly for the sending-off, exposing frailties. This outcome bolsters Utrecht's momentum while serving as a cautionary tale on discipline.
Match Commentary