Catanzaro vs Spezia preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Sat, 25 Apr - 10:30 AM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
Spezia SPE
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 10:30 AM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Catanzaro welcomes Spezia to Stadio Nicola Ceravolo for a crucial Serie B regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts sit comfortably in 5th place, boasting a power score of 26.15 compared to Spezia's 17.25, translating to an 8.9-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with Catanzaro's 17.83 rating outpacing Spezia's modest 8.28, reflecting recent momentum in their favor. While detailed efficiency and set-piece data remain unavailable due to low-confidence proxies, Catanzaro's higher league standing and overall strength suggest dominance in open play and transitions. Spezia, mired in 19th, faces an uphill battle to exploit any home vulnerabilities. This matchup hinges on Catanzaro maintaining their edge in possession and conversion, potentially extending their push up the table against a relegation-threatened side.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Catanzaro holds a clear 8.9-point power advantage over Spezia, reinforced by their 5th-place league position against Spezia's 19th.
  • Form: Catanzaro's form score of 17.83 significantly outperforms Spezia's 8.28.
  • Squad: Catanzaro's superior power score of 26.15 reflects stronger squad depth compared to Spezia's 17.25.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Catanzaro's higher power rating indicates better transition play potential than Spezia.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Catanzaro 42.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.3% (Δ+0%) | Spezia 30.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Modena Rank: D
Avellino Rank: D
Monza Rank: D
Cesena Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: W
Mantova Rank: L
Carrarese Rank: L
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Empoli Rank: D
Modena Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
42.63%
Draw
27.26%
Away Spezia
30.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.15
17.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Spezia
Power Score
26.15
17.25
League Position
5
19
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Spezia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
7 matches
Spezia SPE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
6
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T09:30:28+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
22 M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
84 T. Cassandro
M. Antonini Lui
4 M. Antonini Lui
N. Brighenti
23 N. Brighenti
J. Petriccione
10 J. Petriccione
C. Favasuli
27 C. Favasuli
S. Pontisso
20 S. Pontisso
F. Di Francesco
94 F. Di Francesco
M. Liberali
14 M. Liberali
G. Alesi
30 G. Alesi
F. Pittarello
8 F. Pittarello
D. Mascardi
12 D. Mascardi
P. Beruatto
11 P. Beruatto
P. Hristov
55 P. Hristov
A. Matějů
37 A. Matějů
G. Aurelio
31 G. Aurelio
M. Valoti
5 M. Valoti
A. Romano
60 A. Romano
F. Bandinelli
25 F. Bandinelli
L. Sernicola
17 L. Sernicola
G. Lapadula
10 G. Lapadula
G. Di Serio
20 G. Di Serio

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 10:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity
14650
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Piccinini
A. El Filali
Giuseppe Vingo
Mattia Regattieri

Expected Lineup

Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.77
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Midfielder
6.77
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Midfielder
6.78
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
6.73
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
6.99
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Centre Forward
6.97
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Centre Back
6.93
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Right Back
6.99
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Left Back
6.83
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Central Midfield
7.21
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Central Midfield
6.92
Referee : Marco Piccinini

Starting XI ▼

12
Diego Mascardi
Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper
6.83
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola Midfielder
6.76
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio Midfielder
6.66
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula Attacker
6.8
20
Giuseppe Di Serio
Giuseppe Di Serio Attacker
6.66
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti Central Midfield
7.11
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto Left Back
6.85
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Central Midfield
6.9
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Right Back
6.83
25
Filippo Bandinelli
Filippo Bandinelli Central Midfield
6.66
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov Centre Back
6.67

CONCLUSION

Catanzaro enters as the stronger side, leveraging their power and form edges to control proceedings at home. Spezia's poor standing demands a defensive masterclass, but gaps in transition and efficiency data highlight Catanzaro's likely control. Expect the hosts to capitalize on superior metrics for a convincing display, solidifying their top-half aspirations while pressuring Spezia's survival hopes. The 8.9-point gulf should manifest in sustained pressure and key moments.