Birmingham City vs Bristol City preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
St. Andrew's Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Birmingham City BRC
Bristol City BSC
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 45 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Birmingham City host Bristol City in Championship (Regular Season) at St. Andrew's Stadium. Domestically, Birmingham City sit 10th in the table while Bristol City are 12th. Power ranking favours Birmingham City by 1.3 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Birmingham City holds a 1.3-point power advantage over Bristol City with a home venue in St. Andrew's Stadium.
  • Form: Form scores stand at 19 for Birmingham City and 19.22 for Bristol City, indicating near parity.
  • Squad: Birmingham City ranks 10th and Bristol City 12th in the Championship standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable in the provided data.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data shows low confidence with proxies used and no xG available for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG variables are unavailable due to lack of supporting data.
  • Market: Birmingham City 54.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0%) | Bristol City 20.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
VS
Bristol City R. Hodgson
R. Hodgson
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Preston North End Rank: W
Hull City Rank: D
Wrexham Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: W
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: L
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 4 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Birmingham City
54.74%
Draw
24.8%
Away Bristol City
20.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.22
22.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Birmingham City
Bristol City
Power Score
24.22
22.96
League Position
10
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Bristol City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Birmingham City Bristol City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Birmingham City BRC Home
25 matches
Bristol City BSC Away
Match Record
16
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
16
Goals
38
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
38
+16
Goal Difference
-16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:05:35+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Beadle
25 J. Beadle
E. Laird
2 E. Laird
P. Neumann
5 P. Neumann
C. Klarer
4 C. Klarer
K. Wagner
31 K. Wagner
S. Paik
8 S. Paik
J. Solis Romero
14 J. Solis Romero
C. Vicente Robles
23 C. Vicente Robles
J. Stansfield
28 J. Stansfield
D. Gray
10 D. Gray
A. Priske
29 A. Priske
R. Vítek
23 R. Vítek
C. Pring
3 C. Pring
V. Borges dos Santos Neto
21 V. Borges dos Santos Neto
N. Eile
38 N. Eile
R. McCrorie
2 R. McCrorie
J. Knight
12 J. Knight
S. Morsy
40 S. Morsy
S. Bell
20 S. Bell
T. Horvat
14 T. Horvat
S. Twine
10 S. Twine
D. Burgzorg
11 D. Burgzorg

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium
St. Andrew's Stadium
Capacity
29409
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Robert Jones
Nick Greenhalgh
Richard West
Leigh Doughty

Expected Lineup

Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

25
James Beadle
James Beadle Goalkeeper
6.68
29
August Priske
August Priske Centre Forward
6.65
2
Ethan Laird
Ethan Laird Right Back
6.82
4
Christoph Klarer
Christoph Klarer Left Back
7
5
Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann Right Back
6.89
23
Carlos Vicente
Carlos Vicente Right Wing
6.77
28
Jay Stansfield
Jay Stansfield Attacking Midfield
6.71
31
Kai Wagner
Kai Wagner Left Back
7.09
8
Seung-ho Paik
Seung-ho Paik Defensive Midfield
6.95
10
Demarai Gray
Demarai Gray Left Wing
6.81
14
Jhon Solís
Jhon Solís Defensive Midfield
6.66
Referee : Robert Jones

Starting XI ▼

23
Radek Vitek
Radek Vitek Goalkeeper
6.91
11
Delano Burgzorg
Delano Burgzorg Centre Forward
6.73
2
Ross McCrorie
Ross McCrorie Right Back
6.85
3
Cameron Pring
Cameron Pring Left Back
6.57
10
Scott Twine
Scott Twine Right Wing
7.1
12
Jason Knight
Jason Knight Defensive Midfield
6.78
14
Tomi Horvat
Tomi Horvat Attacking Midfield
6.92
20
Sam Bell
Sam Bell Left Wing
6.77
38
Noah Eile
Noah Eile Right Back
6.79
40
Sam Morsy
Sam Morsy Defensive Midfield
6.74
21
Neto Borges
Neto Borges Left Back
6.45

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Birmingham City holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Birmingham City a 1.3-point edge. External projection is Birmingham City 54.4%, draw 25.1%, and Bristol City 20.5%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.