OH Leuven vs Sporting Charleroi preview

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
OH Leuven OHL
Sporting Charleroi SPC
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 5 Conference League Play-off Group

CONTEXT

OH Leuven host Sporting Charleroi in Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group) at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Domestically, OH Leuven sit 12th in the table while Sporting Charleroi are 11th. Power ranking favours OH Leuven by 1.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: OH Leuven holds a 1.6-point power advantage over Sporting Charleroi, marking them as structurally stronger.
  • Form: OH Leuven's form score of 15.39 outstrips Sporting Charleroi's 9.11.
  • Squad: League standings place OH Leuven 12th and Sporting Charleroi 11th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies with no xG data available.
  • xVariable: Power scores highlight OH Leuven's overall edge at home.
  • Market: OH Leuven 34.8% (Δ-0.4%) | Draw 27.8% (Δ+0.3%) | Sporting Charleroi 37.4% (Δ+0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
VS
Sporting Charleroi M. Kohnen
M. Kohnen
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: L
Genk Rank: D
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: D
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 8 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home OH Leuven
34.78%
Draw
27.83%
Away Sporting Charleroi
37.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
OH Leuven
-0.39%
Draw
+0.28%
Sporting Charleroi
+0.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
18.29
16.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
OH Leuven
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
18.29
16.67
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) OH Leuven Sporting Charleroi

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

OH Leuven OHL Home
22 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
9
Wins
5
8
Draws
8
5
Losses
9
Goals
27
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
27
+8
Goal Difference
-8
Expected Goals
1.46
xG
2.52
2.52
xGA
1.46

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:06:22+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
T. Leysen
1 T. Leysen
E. Pletinckx
28 E. Pletinckx
R. Nyakossi
34 R. Nyakossi
T. Ominami
5 T. Ominami
T. Vlietinck
77 T. Vlietinck
S. Schrijvers
8 S. Schrijvers
Ł. Łakomy
24 Ł. Łakomy
H. Teklab
14 H. Teklab
M. Maertens
33 M. Maertens
K. Vaesen
17 K. Vaesen
Y. Maziz
10 Y. Maziz
M. Kone
30 M. Kone
M. Nzita
24 M. Nzita
A. Ousou
4 A. Ousou
C. keita
95 C. keita
L. Blum
27 L. Blum
A. Boukamir
56 A. Boukamir
E. Camara
5 E. Camara
A. Bernier
17 A. Bernier
P. Pflücke
14 P. Pflücke
K. Van Den Kerkhof
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
A. Colassin
25 A. Colassin

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 5 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion
Capacity
10020
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Letellier
Nicolas Maszowez
Christophe Battiston
Tim De Keyzer

Expected Lineup

Referee : Anthony Letellier

Starting XI ▼

1
Tobe Leysen
Tobe Leysen Goalkeeper
7.01
77
Thibault Vlietinck
Thibault Vlietinck Midfielder
6.43
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Midfielder
6.77
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens Attacker
6.69
17
Kyan Vaesen
Kyan Vaesen Centre Forward
6.59
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Attacker
6.98
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Centre Back
6.84
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Right Back
6.84
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers Central Midfield
7
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy Central Midfield
6.83
5
Takuma Ominami
Takuma Ominami Left Back
6.63
Referee : Anthony Letellier

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
6.92
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin Centre Forward
6.64
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Right Wing
6.73
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Left Wing
6.82
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Right Back
6.63
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Right Back
6.71
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Left Back
6.86
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Attacking Midfield
6.81
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Defensive Midfield
6.89
56
Amine Boukamir
Amine Boukamir Defensive Midfield
6.75
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Left Back
6.72

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward OH Leuven holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give OH Leuven a 1.6-point edge. External projection is OH Leuven 32.7%, draw 27.6%, and Sporting Charleroi 39.7%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.