Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb preview

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt
1. HNL
OsijekOsijek
Lokomotiva ZagrebLokomotiva Zagreb
KICKOFF :
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Osijek host Lokomotiva Zagreb in 1. HNL (Regular Season) at Stadion Gradski vrt. Domestically, Osijek sit 9th in the table while Lokomotiva Zagreb are 5th. Power ranking favours Osijek by 1 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Osijek holds a 1-point power advantage over Lokomotiva Zagreb with scores of 23.58 to 22.55.
  • Form: Osijek leads in form score at 22.61 compared to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 20.78.
  • Squad: No specific squad details available for either Osijek or Lokomotiva Zagreb.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data not provided in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxies used and no xG data for Osijek or Lokomotiva Zagreb.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to lack of underlying data.
  • Market: Osijek 41.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.8% (Δ+0%) | Lokomotiva Zagreb 30% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
VS
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: W
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: D
Gorica Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: W
Gorica Rank: W
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 19 - 19
19
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osijek
41.28%
Draw
28.76%
Away Lokomotiva Zagreb
29.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.58
22.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osijek
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Power Score
23.58
22.55
League Position
9
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home
60 matches
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away
Match Record
22
Wins
19
19
Draws
19
19
Losses
22
Goals
84
Goals Scored
73
73
Goals Conceded
84
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:07:52+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mateo Erceg
Alen Jakšić
Kristijan Kuduz
Jakov Titlić

Expected Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

31
Marko Malenica
Marko Malenica Goalkeeper
6.95
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder
6.65
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić Midfielder
6.43
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja Attacker
6.81
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Attacker
6.9
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic Centre Forward
6.87
38
David Colina
David Colina Left Back
6.71
6
David Mejía
David Mejía Central Midfield
6.7
33
Emin Hasic
Emin Hasic Right Back
6.63
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Centre Back
6.78
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Central Midfield
6.71
Referee : Mateo Erceg

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
6.71
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra Centre Forward
6.68
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Attacking Midfield
6.73
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Right Back
6.89
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Left Back
7.11
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Defensive Midfield
6.69
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Right Wing
6.71
11
Mirko Susak
Mirko Susak Left Wing
6.66
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic Defensive Midfield
6.91
5
Tino Jukic
Tino Jukic Right Back
6.72
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer Left Back
6.61

CONCLUSION

Osijek enters as the analytically stronger side, bolstered by superior power and form scores despite trailing in the 1. HNL table. Lokomotiva's 5th-place standing offers resilience, but Osijek's home venue at Stadion Gradski vrt amplifies their 1-point edge. Absent granular insights on efficiency, transitions, or set pieces, the contest likely pivots on overall momentum and structural balance. Expect Osijek to leverage recent form for control, while Lokomotiva counters with positional grit. This evenly poised encounter promises intensity, with Osijek's metrics pointing toward a narrow advantage in a season-defining regular season fixture.