Manchester City vs Southampton preview

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Wembley Stadium Sat, 25 Apr - 4:15 PM
FA Cup
Manchester City MCI
Southampton SOU
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 4:15 PM
Semi Finals

CONTEXT

Manchester City host Southampton in FA Cup (Semi-finals) at Wembley Stadium. Power ranking favours Southampton by 2.5 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Southampton holds a 2.5-point power advantage over Manchester City with scores of 41.62 versus 39.09.
  • Form: Both teams enter with identical form scores of 50.
  • Squad: Squad composition details are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are not available for either team.
  • Transition: Transition play data remains unavailable in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data is unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are not available as the add-on is disabled.
  • Market: Manchester City 77.3% (Δ-0.2%) | Draw 14% (Δ+0.1%) | Southampton 8.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
VS
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Liverpool Rank: W
Newcastle United Rank: W
Salford City Rank: W
Exeter City Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: W
Fulham Rank: W
Leicester City Rank: W
Doncaster Rovers Rank: W
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 6 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Manchester City
77.33%
Draw
13.99%
Away Southampton
8.68%

Movement

Changes since opening
Manchester City
-0.16%
Draw
+0.14%
Southampton
+0.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
39.09
41.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Manchester City
Southampton
Power Score
39.09
41.62
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Manchester City Southampton

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Manchester City MCI Home
36 matches
Southampton SOU Away
Match Record
22
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
22
Goals
70
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
70
+35
Goal Difference
-35
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:08:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Trafford
England
1 J. Trafford
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
R. Aït Nouri
Algeria
21 R. Aït Nouri
N. González Iglesias
Spain
14 N. González Iglesias
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
S. Moreira de Oliveira
Brazil
26 S. Moreira de Oliveira
P. Foden
England
47 P. Foden
J. Doku
Belgium
11 J. Doku
O. Marmoush
Egypt
7 O. Marmoush
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
R. Manning
Republic of Ireland
3 R. Manning
J. Stephens
England
5 J. Stephens
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
J. Bree
England
14 J. Bree
S. Charles
England
24 S. Charles
F. Downes
England
4 F. Downes
L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
Brazil
13 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
F. Azaz
England
10 F. Azaz
K. Matsuki
Japan
27 K. Matsuki
R. Stewart
Scotland
11 R. Stewart

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Semi Finals
Stadium
Wembley Stadium
Capacity
90000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Craig Pawson
Matthew Wilkes
Lee Betts
Farai Hallam

Lineup

Referee : Craig Pawson

Starting XI ▼

1
James Trafford
James Trafford Goalkeeper
7.11
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
6.95
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
Rayan Aït-Nouri Defender
6.92
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
7.35
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
7.14
14
Nico González
Nico González Midfielder
7.08
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Midfielder
7.28
47
Phil Foden
Phil Foden Midfielder
6.48
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush Attacker
7.33
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Attacker
7.14
26
Savinho
Savinho Attacker
7.18
Referee : Craig Pawson

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
7.52
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning Defender
6.85
5
Jack Stephens
Jack Stephens Defender
6.63
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
7.06
14
James Bree
James Bree Defender
7.2
4
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes Midfielder
7
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz Midfielder
6.85
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Midfielder
7.27
11
Ross Stewart
Ross Stewart Attacker
6.92
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza Attacker
6.86
27
Kuryu Matsuki
Kuryu Matsuki Attacker
6.77

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Southampton holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Southampton a 2.5-point edge. External projection is Manchester City 77.1%, draw 13.9%, and Southampton 9%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.