NAC Breda vs Ajax preview

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Rat Verlegh Stadion Sat, 25 Apr - 6:00 PM
Eredivisie
NAC Breda NAC
Ajax AJA
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 6:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

NAC Breda welcomes Ajax to Rat Verlegh Stadion for an Eredivisie regular season encounter in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 17th in the standings, NAC faces a formidable challenge against 5th-placed Ajax, who hold a substantial 13.7-point power advantage with scores of 28.66 versus NAC's 14.99. Ajax's recent form score of 16.44 towers over NAC's 8.11, highlighting the visitors' sharper edge in momentum and execution. Projections reflect this disparity, assigning Ajax 46.3% likelihood, NAC 29%, and draw 24.8%. Advanced data on efficiency, set pieces, and transitions remains limited due to unavailable xG metrics and low-confidence proxies. NAC will lean on home support to disrupt Ajax's structural dominance, while the guests aim to impose their quality through possession and clinical finishing. This mismatch tests NAC's resilience against Ajax's pedigree.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Ajax possesses a 13.7-point power advantage over NAC Breda, with scores of 28.66 to 14.99.
  • Form: Ajax's form score stands at 16.44, significantly higher than NAC Breda's 8.11.
  • Squad: Ajax occupies 5th place in the Eredivisie, while NAC Breda sits 17th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent as add-on not enabled.
  • Market: NAC Breda 27.8% (Δ-1%) | Draw 24.6% (Δ-0.3%) | Ajax 47.6% (Δ+1.3%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
NAC Breda C. Hoefkens
C. Hoefkens
VS
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fortuna Sittard Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: D
PEC Zwolle Rank: L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
Feyenoord Rank: D
Telstar Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heracles Almelo Rank: W
FC Twente Rank: L
Feyenoord Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: W
FC Groningen Rank: L
PEC Zwolle Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 5 - 20
20
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home NAC Breda
27.83%
Draw
24.6%
Away Ajax
47.57%

Movement

Changes since opening
NAC Breda
-1.02%
Draw
-0.28%
Ajax
+1.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.99
28.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
NAC Breda
Ajax
Power Score
14.99
28.66
League Position
17
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
NAC Breda — Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) NAC Breda Ajax

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

NAC Breda NAC Home
27 matches
Ajax AJA Away
Match Record
2
Wins
20
5
Draws
5
20
Losses
2
Goals
17
Goals Scored
75
75
Goals Conceded
17
-58
Goal Difference
+58
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:09:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Bielica
Poland
99 D. Bielica
D. Odoi
Ghana
3 D. Odoi
E. Mahmutovic
Luxembourg
15 E. Mahmutovic
C. Leemans
Netherlands
8 C. Leemans
B. Kemper
Netherlands
4 B. Kemper
F. Oldrup Jensen
Norway
20 F. Oldrup Jensen
K. Sowah
Ghana
14 K. Sowah
J. Talvitie
Finland
32 J. Talvitie
M. Nassoh
Netherlands
10 M. Nassoh
R. Paula
Germany
11 R. Paula
André Ayew Pelé
Ghana
24 André Ayew Pelé
M. Paes
Netherlands
26 M. Paes
L. Rosa
Brazil
2 L. Rosa
Y. Baas
Netherlands
15 Y. Baas
J. Šutalo
Croatia
37 J. Šutalo
A. Gaaei
Denmark
3 A. Gaaei
J. Mokio
Belgium
24 J. Mokio
K. Itakura
Japan
4 K. Itakura
O. Gloukh
Israel
10 O. Gloukh
M. Godts
Belgium
11 M. Godts
W. Weghorst
Netherlands
25 W. Weghorst
S. Berghuis
Netherlands
23 S. Berghuis

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Rat Verlegh Stadion
Capacity
19000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrick Inia
Rogier Honig
Martijn Vos
Serdar Gozubuyuk

Lineup

Referee : Serdar Gozubuyuk

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Bielica
Daniel Bielica Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Denis Odoi
Denis Odoi Defender
6.63
4
Boy Kemper
Boy Kemper Defender
6.93
8
Clint Leemans
Clint Leemans Defender
6.77
15
Enes Mahmutovic
Enes Mahmutovic Defender
6.59
10
Mohamed Nassoh
Mohamed Nassoh Midfielder
6.92
14
Kamal Sowah
Kamal Sowah Midfielder
6.7
20
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen Midfielder
6.72
11
Raul Paula
Raul Paula Attacker
6.71
24
André Ayew
André Ayew Attacker
6.69
32
Juho Talvitie
Juho Talvitie Attacker
6.67
Referee : Serdar Gozubuyuk

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
6.92
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Defender
6.78
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
7.15
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
6.77
4
Ko Itakura
Ko Itakura Midfielder
6.94
10
Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh Midfielder
6.95
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
6.8
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
7.56
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
7.39
25
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Attacker
7.13

CONCLUSION

Ajax enters as the clear stronger side, backed by superior power ratings, form, and league position, positioning them to dominate proceedings at Rat Verlegh Stadion. NAC Breda, despite home advantage, struggles against this gulf, likely relying on defensive solidity and counter opportunities. Limited advanced stats underscore Ajax's edge in underlying quality, though NAC could exploit any complacency. Projections favor Ajax's control and conversion, pointing to an away victory that reinforces their top-five aspirations while deepening NAC's relegation fight.