Málaga vs Castellón preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio La Rosaleda Sat, 25 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Málaga MLA
Castellón Castellón
KICKOFF : Sat, 25 Apr - 7:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Málaga host Castellón at Estadio La Rosaleda in a La Liga 2 regular season fixture for the 2025/2026 campaign. The seventh-placed Boquerones face fourth-placed visitors who hold a power score edge of 33.37 to 31.26, a 2.1-point advantage designating Castellón as the stronger team overall. Form metrics reinforce this, with Castellón at 31.83 versus Málaga's 23.28, highlighting recent inconsistencies for the hosts. League positions underscore Castellón's superior campaign so far. Advanced data on efficiency, transitions, and set pieces remains unavailable without xG support, limiting granular insights. Málaga will rely on home support to bridge the gap, but Castellón's metrics point to a team in better shape. This mid-table clash shapes up as tightly contested, with fine margins likely decisive.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Castellón holds a 2.1-point power advantage with a score of 33.37 over Málaga's 31.26.
  • Form: Castellón's form score stands at 31.83, surpassing Málaga's 23.28.
  • Squad: League positions place Castellón 4th and Málaga 7th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this matchup.
  • Transition: Transition statistics are not provided.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent for both teams.
  • Market: Málaga 32.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.4% (Δ+0%) | Castellón 38.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
VS
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: L
Las Palmas Rank: W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: D
FC Andorra Rank: D
Leganés Rank: D
Cádiz Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burgos Rank: W
Mirandés Rank: D
Granada Rank: W
Almería Rank: W
Albacete Rank: D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 1 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Málaga
32.68%
Draw
28.37%
Away Castellón
38.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.26
33.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Málaga
Castellón
Power Score
31.26
33.37
League Position
7
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Málaga Castellón

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Málaga MLA Home
9 matches
Castellón Castellón Away
Match Record
6
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
6
Goals
13
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
13
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:09:45+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Herrero Peinador
1 A. Herrero Peinador
C. Puga Medina
3 C. Puga Medina
D. Murillo Dominguez
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
F. Montero Rubio
20 F. Montero Rubio
R. Garrido Hierro
31 R. Garrido Hierro
A. Ochoa Moloney
35 A. Ochoa Moloney
C. Dotor Gonzalez
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
I. Merino Rodríguez
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
J. Muñoz Benavides
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
C. Ruiz Rubio
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
A. Niño Heredia
21 A. Niño Heredia
R. Matthys
13 R. Matthys
L. Alcázar Moreno
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
A. Sienra
4 A. Sienra
F. Brignani
3 F. Brignani
J. Mellot
22 J. Mellot
A. Jakobsen
19 A. Jakobsen
R. Pompeu da Silva
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
D. Hernández Barriuso
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
P. Santiago López
18 P. Santiago López
A. Calatrava Torrado
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
9 O. Camara

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio La Rosaleda
Capacity
30044
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
Fernando Estela Bravo
Brais García Valín
Alexandre Alemán Pérez

Expected Lineup

Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.98
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.86
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa Midfielder
6.78
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
7.03
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño Attacker
6.86
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Left Back
6.72
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Central Midfield
6.68
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Right Back
6.98
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Left Back
6.77
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Right Back
6.88
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Central Midfield
6.86
Referee : Carlos Muñiz Muñoz

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.83
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
6.81
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
6.66
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.91
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.2
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Right Back
6.75
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Central Midfield
6.78
4
Agustín Sienra
Agustín Sienra Left Back
6.67
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Central Midfield
6.85
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Left Back
6.8
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Right Back
6.93

CONCLUSION

Castellón arrive with momentum from superior power and form scores, positioning them as slight favourites despite the away trip to Estadio La Rosaleda. Málaga, seventh in the table, must harness home advantage to challenge the fourth-placed visitors who demonstrate greater consistency. Lacking xG-driven insights into efficiency, set pieces, or transitions, the contest hinges on raw quality and execution. Castellón's edge in key metrics suggests they can edge a low-scoring battle, though Málaga's resolve could force a draw in this evenly poised La Liga 2 encounter.