Genk vs OH Leuven preview

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Luminus Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM
Pro League
Genk GNK
OH Leuven OHL
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 2 Conference League Play-off Group

CONTEXT

Genk host OH Leuven in Pro League (Conference League Play-off Group) at Luminus Arena. Domestically, Genk sit 7th in the table while OH Leuven are 12th. Power ranking favours Genk by 11.1 points heading into this fixture. Genk's recent form reads W3 D1 L2 from 6 matches; OH Leuven's form is W2 D0 L4 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Genk Win away against Antwerp. OH Leuven last played at home versus Standard Liège, finishing with a Loss.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Genk hold a +11.1 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Genk sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Genk show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Genk have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Genk carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Genk hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Genk 56.2% | Draw 24.1% | OH Leuven 19.7%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
VS
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
La Louvière Rank: 67 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Gent Rank: 72 W
Standard Liège Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Standard Liège Rank: 69 L
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 71 W
Westerlo Rank: 70 L
Anderlecht Rank: 72 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 4 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Genk
56.19%
Draw
24.09%
Away OH Leuven
19.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.01
65.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Genk
OH Leuven
Power Score
77.01
65.92
League Position
7
12
Global Rank
79
285

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Genk OH Leuven

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Genk GNK Home
20 matches
OH Leuven OHL Away
Match Record
13
Wins
3
4
Draws
4
3
Losses
13
Goals
45
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
45
+24
Goal Difference
-24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T01:06:37+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
L. Kiaba Mounganga
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
J. Ndenge Kongolo
44 J. Ndenge Kongolo
M. Sadick Aliu
3 M. Sadick Aliu
A. Palacios Hernández
34 A. Palacios Hernández
Z. El Ouahdi
77 Z. El Ouahdi
B. Heynen
8 B. Heynen
J. Steuckers
7 J. Steuckers
Y. Medina Ortiz
19 Y. Medina Ortiz
K. Karetsas
20 K. Karetsas
D. Heymans
38 D. Heymans
R. Mirisola
29 R. Mirisola
M. Prévôt
16 M. Prévôt
R. Nyakossi
34 R. Nyakossi
N. Dussenne
3 N. Dussenne
E. Pletinckx
28 E. Pletinckx
T. Akimoto
30 T. Akimoto
B. Verstraete
4 B. Verstraete
S. Schrijvers
8 S. Schrijvers
H. Teklab
14 H. Teklab
Y. Maziz
10 Y. Maziz
C. Ikwuemesi
19 C. Ikwuemesi
T. Verlinden
7 T. Verlinden

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
Luminus Arena
Capacity
24956
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
19
Yaimar Medina
Yaimar Medina Midfielder
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas Midfielder
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Midfielder
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Midfielder
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola Centre Forward
3
Mujaid Sadick
Mujaid Sadick Centre Back
7
Jarne Steuckers
Jarne Steuckers Central Midfield
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Central Midfield
34
Adrián Palacios
Adrián Palacios Left Back
44
Josué Kongolo
Josué Kongolo Right Back

Starting XI ▼

16
Maxence Prévot
Maxence Prévot Goalkeeper
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Midfielder
30
Takahiro Akimoto
Takahiro Akimoto Midfielder
7
Thibaud Verlinden
Thibaud Verlinden Attacker
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Attacker
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi Centre Forward
3
Noë Dussenne
Noë Dussenne Centre Back
4
Birger Verstraete
Birger Verstraete Central Midfield
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers Central Midfield
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Right Back
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Left Back

CONCLUSION

Genk enters this fixture with the stronger pre-match profile, holding an 11.1-point advantage in structural power over OH Leuven. The probability models identify Genk as the distinct market leader at 56.2 percent, compared to a 24.1 percent chance of a draw and 19.7 percent for the visiting team. Therefore, the structural metrics and the market signals directly align in predicting a positive outcome for the home side. To convert this numerical advantage into a tangible result, Genk must dictate the central passing avenues, while OH Leuven must efficiently execute their transition opportunities against the run of play.