Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix Sun, 12 Apr - 2:15 PM
La Liga
Mallorca MLL
Rayo Vallecano RAY
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 2:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Mallorca host Rayo Vallecano in La Liga (Regular Season) at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. Domestically, Mallorca sit 16th in the table while Rayo Vallecano are 12th. Power ranking favours Rayo Vallecano by 1.9 points heading into this fixture. Mallorca's recent form reads W2 D1 L3 from 6 matches; Rayo Vallecano's form is W2 D3 L1 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Mallorca Win at home against Real Madrid. Rayo Vallecano last played at home versus Elche, finishing with a Win.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Rayo Vallecano hold a +1.9 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Rayo Vallecano sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Mallorca show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Rayo Vallecano have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Rayo Vallecano carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Rayo Vallecano hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Mallorca 36.8% | Draw 29.5% | Rayo Vallecano 33.7%
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Mallorca M. Demichelis
M. Demichelis
VS
Rayo Vallecano I. Pérez Soto
I. Pérez Soto
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Madrid Rank: 95 W
Elche Rank: 72 L
Espanyol Rank: 74 W
Osasuna Rank: 78 D
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 L
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Elche Rank: 73 W
FC Barcelona Rank: 96 L
Levante Rank: 71 D
Sevilla Rank: 72 D
Real Oviedo Rank: 70 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 3 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mallorca
36.84%
Draw
29.47%
Away Rayo Vallecano
33.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.92
76.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mallorca
Rayo Vallecano
Power Score
74.92
76.83
League Position
16
12
Global Rank
101
82

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mallorca — Opponent-weighted form score
Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mallorca Rayo Vallecano

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mallorca MLL Home
20 matches
Rayo Vallecano RAY Away
Match Record
10
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
10
Goals
26
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
26
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T01:06:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
L. Román Riquelme
1 L. Román Riquelme
P. Maffeo Becerra
23 P. Maffeo Becerra
O. Mascarell González
5 O. Mascarell González
M. Kumbulla
4 M. Kumbulla
J. Mojica Palacio
22 J. Mojica Palacio
S. Costa
12 S. Costa
M. Morlanes
8 M. Morlanes
Z. Sebastiao Luvumbo
14 Z. Sebastiao Luvumbo
P. Torre Carral
20 P. Torre Carral
S. Darder Moll
10 S. Darder Moll
V. Muriqi
7 V. Muriqi
A. Batalla Barga
13 A. Batalla Barga
J. Chavarría Pérez
3 J. Chavarría Pérez
L. Ramos Marchi
5 L. Ramos Marchi
F. Lejeune
24 F. Lejeune
A. Ratiu
2 A. Ratiu
U. López Cabrera
17 U. López Cabrera
I. Palazón Camacho
7 I. Palazón Camacho
Ó. Martín Luengo
23 Ó. Martín Luengo
Á. García Rivera
18 Á. García Rivera
A. Zurawski
9 A. Zurawski
J. De Frutos Sebastián
19 J. De Frutos Sebastián

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Capacity
26020
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Leo Román
Leo Román Goalkeeper
7
Vedat Muriqi
Vedat Muriqi Centre Forward
8
Manu Morlanes
Manu Morlanes Defensive Midfield
23
Pablo Maffeo
Pablo Maffeo Right Back
10
Sergi Darder
Sergi Darder Left Wing
4
Marash Kumbulla
Marash Kumbulla Left Back
5
Omar Mascarell
Omar Mascarell Right Back
20
Pablo Torre
Pablo Torre Attacking Midfield
22
Johan Mojica
Johan Mojica Left Back
12
Samú Costa
Samú Costa Defensive Midfield
14
Zito Luvumbo
Zito Luvumbo Right Wing

Starting XI ▼

13
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper
9
Alexandre Zurawski
Alexandre Zurawski Centre Forward
18
Álvaro García
Álvaro García Attacker
19
Jorge de Frutos
Jorge de Frutos Attacker
17
Unai López
Unai López Central Midfield
2
Andrei Rațiu
Andrei Rațiu Right Back
5
Luiz Felipe
Luiz Felipe Left Back
7
Isi Palazón
Isi Palazón Central Midfield
23
Óscar Valentín
Óscar Valentín Central Midfield
24
Florian Lejeune
Florian Lejeune Right Back
3
Pep Chavarría
Pep Chavarría Left Back

CONCLUSION

Rayo Vallecano holds the stronger pre-match profile, entering the contest with a defined structural power advantage of 1.9 points over Mallorca. However, the probability projections reflect a contrasting view, positioning Mallorca as the explicit market leader with a 37.1 percent implied chance of victory, compared to 33.6 percent for the visiting side. Because the underlying data favors the away team while the external numbers favor the hosts, the market and structural signals diverge completely ahead of this encounter. Ultimately, the result will depend on strict defensive organization and the ability to maintain shape during quick attacking transitions.