Alverca vs Casa Pia preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca Sun, 12 Apr - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Alverca Alverca
Casa Pia Casa Pia
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 2:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Alverca host Casa Pia in Liga Portugal (Regular Season) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Domestically, Alverca sit 10th in the table while Casa Pia are 16th. Power ranking favours Casa Pia by 6.9 points heading into this fixture. Alverca's recent form reads W1 D4 L1 from 6 matches; Casa Pia's form is W1 D3 L2 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Alverca Win away against Rio Ave. Casa Pia last played at home versus Benfica, finishing with a Draw.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Casa Pia hold a +6.9 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Alverca sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Alverca show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Casa Pia have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Casa Pia carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Casa Pia hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Alverca 45.9% | Draw 28.6% | Casa Pia 25.5%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Alverca C. Dias de Castro
C. Dias de Castro
VS
Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.89
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
AVS Rank: 55 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 D
Santa Clara Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Benfica Rank: 87 D
Estrela Amadora Rank: 58 L
Estoril Rank: 68 D
Moreirense Rank: 66 D
Famalicão Rank: 73 L
Arouca Rank: 65 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alverca
45.92%
Draw
28.61%
Away Casa Pia
25.47%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.5
63.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alverca
Casa Pia
Power Score
56.5
63.42
League Position
10
16
Global Rank
307
353

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alverca — Opponent-weighted form score
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alverca Casa Pia

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alverca Alverca Home
1 matches
Casa Pia Casa Pia Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
2
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T01:06:49+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
M. Ferreira
31 M. Ferreira
K. Marques Naves
4 K. Marques Naves
S. Gómez Solà
5 S. Gómez Solà
N. Meupiyou Menadjou
33 N. Meupiyou Menadjou
N. Zoubdi Touaizi
2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
R. Simião Gomes
26 R. Simião Gomes
L. Oliveira dos Santos
18 L. Oliveira dos Santos
I. James
12 I. James
L. Figueiredo dos Santos
20 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
S. Cordovil de Lima
91 S. Cordovil de Lima
Chiquinho
10 Chiquinho
P. Sequeira Mejías
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
David Sousa
43 David Sousa
A. Geraldes de Barros
18 A. Geraldes de Barros
J. Goulart Silva
4 J. Goulart Silva
P. Silva Rosas
75 P. Silva Rosas
R. Brito
8 R. Brito
I. Mohamed
24 I. Mohamed
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
T. Fontoura Fonseca Morais
21 T. Fontoura Fonseca Morais
C. Dias Moreira
90 C. Dias Moreira
J. Livolant
29 J. Livolant

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Capacity
7705
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

31
Mateus Ferreira
Mateus Ferreira Goalkeeper
12
Isaac James
Isaac James Midfielder
2
Nabil Touaizi
Nabil Touaizi Midfielder
20
Figueiredo
Figueiredo Attacker
91
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima Centre Forward
10
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira Attacker
5
Sergi Gómez Solà
Sergi Gómez Solà Centre Back
26
Rhaldney
Rhaldney Central Midfield
33
Bastien Meupiyou
Bastien Meupiyou Left Back
18
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos Central Midfield
4
Kaiky Marques Naves
Kaiky Marques Naves Right Back

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
75
Pedro Rosas
Pedro Rosas Midfielder
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder
29
Jérémy Livolant
Jérémy Livolant Attacker
90
Cassiano
Cassiano Centre Forward
21
Tiago Morais
Tiago Morais Attacker
8
Rafael Brito
Rafael Brito Central Midfield
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Right Back
18
André Geraldes
André Geraldes Centre Back
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Left Back
24
Iyad Mohamed
Iyad Mohamed Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Casa Pia holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Casa Pia a 6.9-point edge. Market probabilities are Alverca 45.9%, draw 28.6%, and Casa Pia 25.5%. That market view diverges from the structural profile, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.