Toulouse vs LOSC Lille preview

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium de Toulouse Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM
Ligue 1
Toulouse TOU
LOSC Lille LOSC
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 3:15 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Toulouse host LOSC Lille in Ligue 1 (Regular Season) at Stadium de Toulouse. Domestically, Toulouse sit 10th in the table while LOSC Lille are 3th. Power ranking favours LOSC Lille by 5.9 points heading into this fixture. Toulouse's recent form reads W2 D1 L3 from 6 matches; LOSC Lille's form is W5 D1 L0 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Toulouse Loss away against Paris Saint Germain. LOSC Lille last played at home versus Lens, finishing with a Win.

TL;DR

  • Structural: LOSC Lille hold a +5.9 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: LOSC Lille sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Toulouse show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: LOSC Lille have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: LOSC Lille carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: LOSC Lille hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Toulouse 30.2% | Draw 29.2% | LOSC Lille 40.6%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
VS
LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 L
Lorient Rank: 74 W
Metz Rank: 62 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 81 L
Rennes Rank: 77 L
Paris Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 83 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 W
Rennes Rank: 78 W
Lorient Rank: 73 D
Nantes Rank: 64 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 11 - 17
17
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Toulouse
30.16%
Draw
29.22%
Away LOSC Lille
40.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.36
79.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Toulouse
LOSC Lille
Power Score
73.36
79.27
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
125
66

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Toulouse LOSC Lille

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Toulouse TOU Home
37 matches
LOSC Lille LOSC Away
Match Record
9
Wins
17
11
Draws
11
17
Losses
9
Goals
37
Goals Scored
50
50
Goals Conceded
37
-13
Goal Difference
+13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:04:27+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
G. Restes
1 G. Restes
M. McKenzie
3 M. McKenzie
S. Koumbassa
35 S. Koumbassa
R. Nicolaisen
2 R. Nicolaisen
D. Sidibé
19 D. Sidibé
C. Cásseres Yepes
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
P. Diop
18 P. Diop
D. Methalie
24 D. Methalie
A. Dønnum
15 A. Dønnum
E. Correia da Silva
20 E. Correia da Silva
Y. Gboho
10 Y. Gboho
B. Özer
1 B. Özer
R. Perraud
15 R. Perraud
A. Mandi
23 A. Mandi
N. Ngoy
3 N. Ngoy
T. Meunier
12 T. Meunier
N. Bentaleb
6 N. Bentaleb
A. Bouaddi
32 A. Bouaddi
F. Sanches Correia
27 F. Sanches Correia
H. Haraldsson
10 H. Haraldsson
N. Mukau
17 N. Mukau
M. Fernandez Pardo
7 M. Fernandez Pardo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadium de Toulouse
Capacity
33150
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Huseyin Ocak
Ahmed Taleb
Salem Zyed Ben El Hadj
Gwenaël Pasqualotti

Expected Lineup

Referee : Salem Zyed Ben El Hadj

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Midfielder
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé Midfielder
20
Emersonn
Emersonn Centre Forward
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Attacker
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Attacker
35
Seny Koumbassa
Seny Koumbassa Centre Back
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Left Back
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Central Midfield
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Right Back
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop Central Midfield
Referee : Salem Zyed Ben El Hadj

Starting XI ▼

1
Berke Özer
Berke Özer Goalkeeper
7
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Matías Fernández-Pardo Centre Forward
23
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi Left Back
15
Romain Perraud
Romain Perraud Left Back
32
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi Defensive Midfield
17
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Ngal'ayel Mukau Right Wing
10
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson Attacking Midfield
6
Nabil Bentaleb
Nabil Bentaleb Defensive Midfield
27
Félix Correia
Félix Correia Left Wing
12
Thomas Meunier
Thomas Meunier Right Back
3
Nathan Ngoy
Nathan Ngoy Right Back

CONCLUSION

Heading into this fixture, LOSC Lille possesses the stronger pre-match profile, holding a calculated advantage of 5.9 power points over Toulouse. The underlying data reflects their consistency across recent league fixtures. Analyzing the probability figures, LOSC Lille is the market leader with a 40.6 percent likelihood of victory, while the hosts sit at 30.2 percent. Therefore, the market and structural signals align in identifying the away team as the expected winner. To extract a positive result from this contest, Toulouse must focus on maintaining compact defensive lines to absorb and ultimately disrupt the sustained offensive patterns of the visitors.