VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
MHPArena Sun, 12 Apr - 3:30 PM
Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart VFB
Hamburger SV HSV
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 3:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

VfB Stuttgart prepare to host Hamburger SV at the MHPArena for an upcoming Regular Season fixture in the Bundesliga. Coming into this match, the two clubs find themselves in different halves of the league standings. VfB Stuttgart currently occupy the 4th position in the table, while the visiting Hamburger SV sit further down in 12th place. The home side will look to utilize their familiar surroundings, although they need to rebound from their latest performance. VfB Stuttgart's season form reads W3 D2 L1 from 6 matches. In their last outing, VfB Stuttgart played at home against Borussia Dortmund and recorded a Loss. Meanwhile, Hamburger SV arrive hoping to improve their mixed recent results. The visitors' season form reads W1 D2 L3 from 6 matches. In their most recent match, Hamburger SV played at home against FC Augsburg and came away with a Draw. Both teams will now focus on securing additional points in this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: VfB Stuttgart hold a +21.4 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: VfB Stuttgart sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: VfB Stuttgart show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: VfB Stuttgart have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: VfB Stuttgart carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: VfB Stuttgart hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: VfB Stuttgart 65.7% | Draw 20.3% | Hamburger SV 13.9%
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
VfB Stuttgart S. Hoeneß
S. Hoeneß
VS
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
1.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 90 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 W
RB Leipzig Rank: 85 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 81 D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
Heidenheim Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Augsburg Rank: 76 D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
FC Köln Rank: 74 D
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
RB Leipzig Rank: 86 L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 2 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home VfB Stuttgart
65.72%
Draw
20.33%
Away Hamburger SV
13.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.22
63.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
Power Score
85.22
63.8
League Position
4
12
Global Rank
32
81

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
VfB Stuttgart — Opponent-weighted form score
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) VfB Stuttgart Hamburger SV

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

VfB Stuttgart VFB Home
25 matches
Hamburger SV HSV Away
Match Record
12
Wins
11
2
Draws
2
11
Losses
12
Goals
39
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
39
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:04:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Nübel
33 A. Nübel
L. Assignon
22 L. Assignon
F. Jeltsch
29 F. Jeltsch
J. Chabot
24 J. Chabot
R. Hendriks
3 R. Hendriks
N. Nartey
28 N. Nartey
A. Stiller
6 A. Stiller
J. Leweling
18 J. Leweling
B. El Khannous
11 B. El Khannous
C. Führich
10 C. Führich
D. Undav
26 D. Undav
D. Heuer Fernandes
1 D. Heuer Fernandes
J. Torunarigha
25 J. Torunarigha
L. Vušković
44 L. Vušković
W. Omari
17 W. Omari
G. Gocholeishvili
16 G. Gocholeishvili
A. Sambi Lokonga
6 A. Sambi Lokonga
N. Remberg
21 N. Remberg
W. Mikelbrencis
2 W. Mikelbrencis
R. Königsdörffer
11 R. Königsdörffer
F. Ferreira Vieira
20 F. Ferreira Vieira
R. Glatzel
9 R. Glatzel

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
MHPArena
Capacity
60449
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

33
Alexander Nübel
Alexander Nübel Goalkeeper
26
Deniz Undav
Deniz Undav Centre Forward
22
Lorenz Assignon
Lorenz Assignon Right Back
24
Jeff Chabot
Jeff Chabot Left Back
6
Angelo Stiller
Angelo Stiller Defensive Midfield
18
Jamie Leweling
Jamie Leweling Right Wing
29
Finn Jeltsch
Finn Jeltsch Right Back
3
Ramon Hendriks
Ramon Hendriks Left Back
28
Nikolas Nartey
Nikolas Nartey Defensive Midfield
11
Bilal El Khannouss
Bilal El Khannouss Attacking Midfield
10
Chris Führich
Chris Führich Left Wing

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Midfielder
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis Midfielder
16
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
Giorgi Gocholeishvili Midfielder
20
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira Midfielder
9
Robert Glatzel
Robert Glatzel Centre Forward
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Central Midfield
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Right Back
44
Luka Vuskovic
Luka Vuskovic Centre Back
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Left Back
6
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Albert Sambi Lokonga Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward VfB Stuttgart holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give VfB Stuttgart a 21.4-point edge. Market probabilities are VfB Stuttgart 65.7%, draw 20.3%, and Hamburger SV 13.9%. That market view aligns with the structural profile. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.