Hajduk Split vs Gorica preview

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Poljud Sun, 12 Apr - 4:30 PM
1. HNL
Hajduk Split Hajduk Split
Gorica Gorica
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 4:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Hajduk Split host Gorica in 1. HNL (Regular Season) at Stadion Poljud. Domestically, Hajduk Split sit 2th in the table while Gorica are 7th. Power ranking favours Hajduk Split by 9.6 points heading into this fixture. Hajduk Split's recent form reads W4 D1 L1 from 6 matches; Gorica's form is W2 D3 L1 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Hajduk Split Win away against Istra 1961. Gorica last played away versus Varaždin, finishing with a Draw.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hajduk Split hold a +9.6 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Hajduk Split sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Hajduk Split show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Hajduk Split have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Hajduk Split carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Hajduk Split hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Hajduk Split 56.9% | Draw 25.5% | Gorica 17.6%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hajduk Split G. García García
G. García García
VS
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
1.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: 65 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 61 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 79 L
Varaždin Rank: 63 D
Rijeka Rank: 71 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 63 D
Rijeka Rank: 71 W
Osijek Rank: 62 D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 64 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 79 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 64 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 6 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hajduk Split
56.92%
Draw
25.46%
Away Gorica
17.62%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.11
62.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hajduk Split
Gorica
Power Score
72.11
62.52
League Position
2
7
Global Rank
148
379

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hajduk Split Gorica

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Home
31 matches
Gorica Gorica Away
Match Record
16
Wins
9
6
Draws
6
9
Losses
16
Goals
55
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
55
+25
Goal Difference
-25
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:04:52+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
T. Silić
33 T. Silić
N. Sigur
8 N. Sigur
Z. Šarlija
31 Z. Šarlija
D. Maresic
15 D. Maresic
D. Melnjak
17 D. Melnjak
A. Pajaziti
4 A. Pajaziti
F. Krovinović
23 F. Krovinović
R. Brajković
28 R. Brajković
R. Pukstas
21 R. Pukstas
M. Šego
11 M. Šego
M. Livaja
10 M. Livaja
D. Matijaš
71 D. Matijaš
M. Čabraja
19 M. Čabraja
J. Filipović
4 J. Filipović
S. Peric
45 S. Peric
B. Bogojević
25 B. Bogojević
A. Kavelj
36 A. Kavelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
Ž. Trontelj
22 Ž. Trontelj
D. Pavičić
24 D. Pavičić
J. Pršir
10 J. Pršir
A. Erceg
50 A. Erceg

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Poljud
Capacity
34198
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

33
Toni Silic
Toni Silic Goalkeeper
10
Marko Livaja
Marko Livaja Centre Forward
4
Adrion Pajaziti
Adrion Pajaziti Defensive Midfield
8
Niko Sigur
Niko Sigur Right Back
11
Michele Sego
Michele Sego Left Wing
15
Dario Maresic
Dario Maresic Left Back
17
Dario Melnjak
Dario Melnjak Left Back
21
Rokas Pukstas
Rokas Pukstas Attacking Midfield
23
Filip Krovinovic
Filip Krovinovic Defensive Midfield
28
Roko Brajkovic
Roko Brajkovic Right Wing
31
Zvonimir Sarlija
Zvonimir Sarlija Right Back

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Midfielder
10
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir Midfielder
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Centre Forward
4
Jakov Filipovic
Jakov Filipovic Centre Back
19
Marijan Cabraja
Marijan Cabraja Left Back
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Central Midfield
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Central Midfield
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Right Back

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Hajduk Split holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Hajduk Split a 9.6-point edge. Market probabilities are Hajduk Split 56.9%, draw 25.5%, and Gorica 17.6%. That market view aligns with the structural profile. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.