Benfica vs Nacional preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica Sun, 12 Apr - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Benfica SLB
Nacional Nacional
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 5:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Benfica will face Nacional at the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica for a Regular Season match in the 2025/2026 Liga Portugal. The two sides enter this fixture with different league placements in the domestic competition. Currently, Benfica sit in 3rd place in the standings, whereas the visiting Nacional squad find themselves in 15th position. For the home side, their recent season form reads W4 D2 L0 from 6 matches. During their last outing, Benfica played away from home and recorded a Draw against Casa Pia. In comparison, the away team arrives with a different overall record, as Nacional's season form reads W1 D1 L4 from 6 matches. However, in their most recent fixture, Nacional secured a Win at home against Estrela Amadora.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Benfica hold a +22.9 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Benfica sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Benfica show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Benfica have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Benfica carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Benfica hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Benfica 80.7% | Draw 13.2% | Nacional 6.1%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Benfica José Mourinho
José Mourinho
VS
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
2.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.75
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 63 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 W
Arouca Rank: 63 W
Porto Rank: 87 D
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
AVS Rank: 55 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: 60 W
Famalicão Rank: 72 L
Estoril Rank: 69 L
Moreirense Rank: 66 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 5 - 2
2
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Benfica
80.74%
Draw
13.17%
Away Nacional
6.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.39
63.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Benfica
Nacional
Power Score
86.39
63.52
League Position
3
15
Global Rank
24
349

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Benfica — Opponent-weighted form score
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Benfica Nacional

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Benfica SLB Home
31 matches
Nacional Nacional Away
Match Record
24
Wins
2
5
Draws
5
2
Losses
24
Goals
82
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
82
+60
Goal Difference
-60
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:01:59+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Trubin
1 A. Trubin
A. Hartmann Bah
6 A. Hartmann Bah
A. Tavares Silva
4 A. Tavares Silva
N. Otamendi
30 N. Otamendi
S. Dahl
26 S. Dahl
R. Rios
20 R. Rios
E. Barrenechea
5 E. Barrenechea
D. Lukebakio
11 D. Lukebakio
R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
A. Schjelderup
21 A. Schjelderup
V. Pavlidis
14 V. Pavlidis
K. Pereira Azarias
1 K. Pereira Azarias
J. Mendes Gomes
5 J. Mendes Gomes
J. Lima Cardoso
38 J. Lima Cardoso
L. Rodrigues dos Santos
34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
A. Núñez Duarte
16 A. Núñez Duarte
I. Liziero Pereira
28 I. Liziero Pereira
C. Abidi
15 C. Abidi
M. Baeza Pérez
8 M. Baeza Pérez
W. Quembo
7 W. Quembo
J. Ramírez Díaz
9 J. Ramírez Díaz
G. Fonseca de Souza
27 G. Fonseca de Souza

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Capacity
68100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Anatoliy Trubin
Anatoliy Trubin Goalkeeper
14
Vangelis Pavlidis
Vangelis Pavlidis Centre Forward
27
Rafa Silva
Rafa Silva Attacking Midfield
21
Andreas Schjelderup
Andreas Schjelderup Left Wing
26
Samuel Dahl
Samuel Dahl Left Back
20
Richard Ríos
Richard Ríos Defensive Midfield
6
Alexander Bah
Alexander Bah Right Back
4
António Silva
António Silva Right Back
30
Nicolás Otamendi
Nicolás Otamendi Left Back
5
Enzo Barrenechea
Enzo Barrenechea Defensive Midfield
11
Dodi Lukébakio
Dodi Lukébakio Right Wing

Starting XI ▼

1
Kaique
Kaique Goalkeeper
27
Gabriel Veron
Gabriel Veron Attacker
9
Jesús Ramírez
Jesús Ramírez Centre Forward
7
Witiness Quembo
Witiness Quembo Attacker
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos Right Back
16
Alan Nuñez
Alan Nuñez Right Back
38
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor Left Back
5
José Gomes
José Gomes Left Back
8
Miguel Baeza
Miguel Baeza Central Midfield
28
Liziero
Liziero Central Midfield
15
Chiheb Labidi
Chiheb Labidi Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Benfica holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Benfica a 22.9-point edge. Market probabilities are Benfica 81.5%, draw 12.8%, and Nacional 5.7%. That market view aligns with the structural profile. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.