FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg preview

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Mewa Arena Sun, 12 Apr - 5:30 PM
Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 M05
SC Freiburg SCF
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 5:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FSV Mainz 05 host SC Freiburg in Bundesliga (Regular Season) at Mewa Arena. Domestically, FSV Mainz 05 sit 9th in the table while SC Freiburg are 8th. Power ranking favours FSV Mainz 05 by 0.4 points heading into this fixture. FSV Mainz 05's recent form reads W3 D3 L0 from 6 matches; SC Freiburg's form is W2 D1 L3 from 6 matches. In their last outing, FSV Mainz 05 Win away against TSG Hoffenheim. SC Freiburg last played at home versus FC Bayern München, finishing with a Loss.

TL;DR

  • Structural: FSV Mainz 05 hold a +0.4 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: FSV Mainz 05 sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: FSV Mainz 05 show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: FSV Mainz 05 have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: FSV Mainz 05 carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: FSV Mainz 05 hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: FSV Mainz 05 42.9% | Draw 29.3% | SC Freiburg 27.8%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
VS
SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 84 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 D
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 D
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
St. Pauli Rank: 73 W
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 D
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FSV Mainz 05
42.87%
Draw
29.3%
Away SC Freiburg
27.83%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.92
80.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
Power Score
80.92
80.53
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
54
57

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Home
31 matches
SC Freiburg SCF Away
Match Record
12
Wins
9
10
Draws
10
9
Losses
12
Goals
45
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
45
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:02:03+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Mewa Arena
Capacity
34000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
27
Robin Zentner
Robin Zentner Goalkeeper
1
Lasse Finn Rieß
Lasse Finn Rieß Goalkeeper
21
Danny Vieira da Costa
Danny Vieira da Costa Defender
31
Dominik Kohr
Dominik Kohr Defender
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Defender
2
Philipp Mwene
Philipp Mwene Defender
5
Maxim Leitsch
Maxim Leitsch Defender
19
Anthony Caci
Anthony Caci Defender
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Defender
25
Andreas Hanche-Olsen
Andreas Hanche-Olsen Defender
47
Maxim Bora Dal
Maxim Bora Dal Defender
18
Kasey Bos
Kasey Bos Defender
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Defender
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder
7
Jae-Sung Lee
Jae-Sung Lee Midfielder
15
Lennard Patrick Maloney
Lennard Patrick Maloney Midfielder
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Midfielder
28
Niklas Tauer
Niklas Tauer Midfielder
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Midfielder
24
Sota Kawasaki
Sota Kawasaki Midfielder
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
Nikolas Veratschnig Midfielder
42
Daniel Gleiber
Daniel Gleiber Midfielder
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
17
Benedict Hollerbach
Benedict Hollerbach Attacker
26
Silla Wamangituka
Silla Wamangituka Attacker
11
Armindo Sieb
Armindo Sieb Attacker
14
William Bøving Vick
William Bøving Vick Attacker
44
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper
Nelson Felix Patrick Weiper Attacker
16
Stefan Bell
Stefan Bell Coach

Squad ▼

24
Jannik Huth
Jannik Huth Goalkeeper
21
Florian Müller
Florian Müller Goalkeeper
1
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu Goalkeeper
28
Matthias Lukas Ginter
Matthias Lukas Ginter Defender
30
Christian Günter
Christian Günter Defender
17
Lukas Kübler
Lukas Kübler Defender
5
Anthony Jung
Anthony Jung Defender
3
Philipp Lienhart
Philipp Lienhart Defender
29
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu Defender
33
Jordy Makengo
Jordy Makengo Defender
37
Max Rosenfelder
Max Rosenfelder Defender
43
Bruno Ifechukwu Ogbus
Bruno Ifechukwu Ogbus Defender
27
Nicolas Höfler
Nicolas Höfler Midfielder
32
Vincenzo Grifo
Vincenzo Grifo Midfielder
8
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein Midfielder
11
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh Midfielder
6
Patrick Osterhage
Patrick Osterhage Midfielder
44
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi Midfielder
26
Maximilian Philipp
Maximilian Philipp Attacker
9
Lucas Höler
Lucas Höler Attacker
19
Jan-Niklas Beste
Jan-Niklas Beste Attacker
31
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic Attacker
14
Yuito Suzuki
Yuito Suzuki Attacker
7
Derry Lionel Scherhant
Derry Lionel Scherhant Attacker
22
Cyriaque Kalou Irié
Cyriaque Kalou Irié Attacker

CONCLUSION

Heading into this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 possesses the stronger pre-match profile, carrying a marginal 0.4-point power advantage over SC Freiburg. The market projections reflect this baseline assessment, designating FSV Mainz 05 as the leader with a 42.9 percent win probability compared to 27.8 percent for the visitors. As a result, the market and the underlying structural signals align in favoring the home side. Given the minimal gap in overall team strength, the result will likely depend on tactical discipline in the middle third. Controlling possession and limiting defensive lapses during rapid transitions will dictate which squad controls the match.