Athletic Club vs Villarreal preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
San Mamés Barria Sun, 12 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Athletic Club ATH
Villarreal VIL
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 7:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Athletic Club will host Villarreal at San Mamés Barria for this Regular Season fixture in La Liga. The hosts enter this encounter sitting in 11th position in the league standings. On the other side, Villarreal comes into the match holding a stronger 3rd position in the table. Looking at recent performances, Athletic Club's season form reads W2 D1 L3 from 6 matches. Their opponents arrive with a slightly better record, as Villarreal's season form reads W3 D1 L2 from 6 matches. Regarding their most recent appearances, both sides experienced defeats and will seek to rebound in this contest. Athletic Club suffered a Loss away against Getafe in their last match. Villarreal also enters this fixture following a negative result, having recorded a Loss away against Girona in their previous outing.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Villarreal hold a +5.3 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Villarreal sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Athletic Club show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Villarreal have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Villarreal carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Villarreal hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Athletic Club 41.5% | Draw 27.4% | Villarreal 31.1%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Athletic Club E. Valverde
E. Valverde
VS
Villarreal M. García Toral
M. García Toral
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Getafe Rank: 76 L
Real Betis Rank: 82 W
Girona Rank: 74 L
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 77 D
Elche Rank: 72 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Girona Rank: 75 L
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
Elche Rank: 72 W
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Valencia Rank: 77 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 13 - 16
16
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Athletic Club
41.46%
Draw
27.44%
Away Villarreal
31.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.36
82.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Power Score
77.36
82.63
League Position
11
3
Global Rank
75
43

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Athletic Club — Opponent-weighted form score
Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Athletic Club Villarreal

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Athletic Club ATH Home
41 matches
Villarreal VIL Away
Match Record
12
Wins
16
13
Draws
13
16
Losses
12
Goals
46
Goals Scored
59
59
Goals Conceded
46
-13
Goal Difference
+13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:02:25+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
1 U. Simón Mendibil
D. Vivian Moreno
3 D. Vivian Moreno
Y. Álvarez López
5 Y. Álvarez López
A. Laporte
14 A. Laporte
Y. Berchiche Izeta
17 Y. Berchiche Izeta
A. Rego Mora
30 A. Rego Mora
M. Jauregizar Alboniga
18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
I. Williams Arthuer
9 I. Williams Arthuer
O. Sancet Tirapu
8 O. Sancet Tirapu
A. Berenguer Remiro
7 A. Berenguer Remiro
G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
L. Reis Júnior
1 L. Reis Júnior
A. Pedraza Sag
24 A. Pedraza Sag
R. Palma Veiga
12 R. Palma Veiga
P. Navarro Badenes
6 P. Navarro Badenes
?. Mouriño González
15 ?. Mouriño González
A. Moleiro González
20 A. Moleiro González
P. Gueye
18 P. Gueye
S. Comesaña Veiga
14 S. Comesaña Veiga
N. Pépé
19 N. Pépé
G. Mikautadze
9 G. Mikautadze
G. Moreno Balaguero
7 G. Moreno Balaguero

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
San Mamés Barria
Capacity
53289
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
11
Gorka Guruzeta
Gorka Guruzeta Centre Forward
8
Oihan Sancet
Oihan Sancet Attacking Midfield
18
Mikel Jauregizar
Mikel Jauregizar Defensive Midfield
30
Alejandro Rego
Alejandro Rego Defensive Midfield
3
Dani Vivian
Dani Vivian Right Back
5
Yeray Álvarez
Yeray Álvarez Right Back
7
Álex Berenguer
Álex Berenguer Left Wing
9
Iñaki Williams
Iñaki Williams Right Wing
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Left Back
17
Yuri Berchiche
Yuri Berchiche Left Back

Starting XI ▼

1
Luiz Júnior
Luiz Júnior Goalkeeper
19
Nicolas Pépé
Nicolas Pépé Midfielder
20
Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro Midfielder
7
Gerard Moreno
Gerard Moreno Attacker
9
Georges Mikautadze
Georges Mikautadze Attacker
6
Pau Navarro
Pau Navarro Right Back
14
Santi Comesaña
Santi Comesaña Central Midfield
15
Santiago Mouriño
Santiago Mouriño Right Back
18
Pape Gueye
Pape Gueye Central Midfield
12
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Left Back
24
Alfonso Pedraza
Alfonso Pedraza Left Back

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Villarreal holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Villarreal a 5.3-point edge. Market probabilities are Athletic Club 41.5%, draw 27.4%, and Villarreal 31.1%. That market view diverges from the structural profile, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.