Estoril vs Porto preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota Sun, 12 Apr - 7:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Estoril ETR
Porto POR
KICKOFF : Sun, 12 Apr - 7:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Estoril prepares to host Porto at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota for a Regular Season fixture in the Liga Portugal. The visitors come into this matchup sitting at the top of the table in 1st position, while the home side currently occupies 7th place in the standings. For the hosts, their season form reads W2 D1 L3 from 6 matches. Estoril will be trying to secure a better outcome after falling short in their previous fixture, which ended in a Loss away against Arouca. Meanwhile, the visiting team maintains a solid recent record, as Porto's season form reads W4 D2 L0 from 6 matches. They enter this contest following a Draw at home against Famalicão in their most recent outing.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Porto hold a +18.7 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Porto sit below baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Estoril show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Porto have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Porto carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Porto hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Estoril 14.3% | Draw 21.3% | Porto 64.4%.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
VS
Porto F. Farioli
F. Farioli
1.55
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.55
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arouca Rank: 64 L
Rio Ave Rank: 63 L
Nacional Rank: 63 W
Casa Pia Rank: 63 D
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: 73 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 W
Moreirense Rank: 68 W
Benfica Rank: 86 D
Arouca Rank: 65 W
Rio Ave Rank: 63 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Estoril
14.31%
Draw
21.31%
Away Porto
64.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.28
87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Estoril
Porto
Power Score
68.28
87
League Position
7
1
Global Rank
223
22

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Porto — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Estoril Porto

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Estoril ETR Home
21 matches
Porto POR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
15
3
Draws
3
15
Losses
3
Goals
17
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
17
-27
Goal Difference
+27
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:02:28+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Robles Blázquez
1 J. Robles Blázquez
R. Sánchez Sendra
2 R. Sánchez Sendra
F. Bacher
25 F. Bacher
A. Tsoungui
5 A. Tsoungui
P. Gaspar Amaral
24 P. Gaspar Amaral
A. Orellana Gómez
6 A. Orellana Gómez
M. da Silva Rocha
8 M. da Silva Rocha
J. Holsgrove
10 J. Holsgrove
J. Antunes Carvalho
12 J. Antunes Carvalho
Y. Begraoui
14 Y. Begraoui
A. Ferreira Lacximicant
19 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
D. Meireles Costa
99 D. Meireles Costa
Z. Sanusi
12 Z. Sanusi
J. Kiwior
4 J. Kiwior
J. Bednarek
5 J. Bednarek
A. Costa
20 A. Costa
S. Fofana
42 S. Fofana
A. Varela
22 A. Varela
V. Froholdt
8 V. Froholdt
O. Pietuszewski
77 O. Pietuszewski
T. Moffi
29 T. Moffi
E. Aquino Cossa
11 E. Aquino Cossa

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 12, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Capacity
8000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Joel Robles
Joel Robles Goalkeeper
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Attacker
19
André Lacximicant
André Lacximicant Attacker
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Central Midfield
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Right Back
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Right Back
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Left Back
6
Jandro Orellana
Jandro Orellana Central Midfield
8
Xeka
Xeka Central Midfield
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Left Back
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho Attacking Midfield

Starting XI ▼

99
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
11
Pepê
Pepê Attacker
29
Terem Moffi
Terem Moffi Centre Forward
77
Oskar Pietuszewski
Oskar Pietuszewski Attacker
12
Zaidu Sanusi
Zaidu Sanusi Left Back
20
Alberto Costa
Alberto Costa Right Back
22
Alan Varela
Alan Varela Central Midfield
5
Jan Bednarek
Jan Bednarek Right Back
4
Jakub Kiwior
Jakub Kiwior Left Back
42
Seko Fofana
Seko Fofana Central Midfield
8
Victor Froholdt
Victor Froholdt Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Porto holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Porto a 18.7-point edge. Market probabilities are Estoril 14.3%, draw 21.3%, and Porto 64.4%. That market view aligns with the structural profile. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.