Fiorentina vs Lazio preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Artemio Franchi Mon, 13 Apr - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Fiorentina FIO
Lazio LAZ
KICKOFF : Mon, 13 Apr - 6:45 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Fiorentina will face Lazio at the Stadio Artemio Franchi for a Regular Season fixture in Serie A. Coming into this contest, Fiorentina occupies 15th position in the league standings, while Lazio is currently positioned higher in 9th place. The hosts are aiming to improve their league standing following a solid run of results. Fiorentina's season form reads W3 D2 L1 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Fiorentina secured a Win away against Hellas Verona. The visitors carry an identical recent record, as Lazio's season form reads W3 D2 L1 from 6 matches. Their last match ended in a Draw at home against Parma. Both teams will seek to gather important points to advance their respective domestic campaigns.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lazio hold a +3.6 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Fiorentina are in line with baseline; recent form is evenly matched.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Fiorentina show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Lazio have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Lazio carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Lazio hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Fiorentina 42.1% | Draw 30.2% | Lazio 27.7%
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
VS
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Inter Rank: 90 D
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Parma Rank: 71 D
Udinese Rank: 74 L
Pisa Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 71 D
Bologna Rank: 79 W
AC Milan Rank: 87 W
Sassuolo Rank: 74 W
Torino Rank: 74 L
Cagliari Rank: 69 D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 7 - 24
24
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fiorentina
42.14%
Draw
30.15%
Away Lazio
27.7%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.68
80.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fiorentina
Lazio
Power Score
76.68
80.29
League Position
15
9
Global Rank
85
59

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fiorentina Lazio

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fiorentina FIO Home
45 matches
Lazio LAZ Away
Match Record
14
Wins
24
7
Draws
7
24
Losses
14
Goals
46
Goals Scored
66
66
Goals Conceded
46
-20
Goal Difference
+20
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T02:03:06+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. de Gea Quintana
43 D. de Gea Quintana
P. Comuzzo
15 P. Comuzzo
M. Pongracic
5 M. Pongracic
L. Ranieri
6 L. Ranieri
R. Gosens
21 R. Gosens
G. Fabbian
80 G. Fabbian
M. Brescianini
4 M. Brescianini
C. Ndour
27 C. Ndour
J. Harrison
17 J. Harrison
M. Kean
20 M. Kean
R. Piccoli
91 R. Piccoli
E. Motta
40 E. Motta
N. Varela Tavares
17 N. Varela Tavares
A. Romagnoli
13 A. Romagnoli
O. Nielsen
25 O. Nielsen
A. Marušić
77 A. Marušić
K. Taylor
24 K. Taylor
D. Cataldi
32 D. Cataldi
F. Dele-Bashiru
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
P. Rodríguez Ledesma
9 P. Rodríguez Ledesma
D. Maldini
27 D. Maldini
G. Isaksen
18 G. Isaksen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Capacity
43147
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea Goalkeeper
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison Attacker
20
Moise Kean
Moise Kean Centre Forward
91
Roberto Piccoli
Roberto Piccoli Attacker
4
Marco Brescianini
Marco Brescianini Central Midfield
5
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Right Back
6
Luca Ranieri
Luca Ranieri Left Back
15
Pietro Comuzzo
Pietro Comuzzo Right Back
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Left Back
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Central Midfield
80
Giovanni Fabbian
Giovanni Fabbian Central Midfield

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
9
Pedro
Pedro Attacker
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen Attacker
27
Daniel Maldini
Daniel Maldini Centre Forward
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Central Midfield
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Left Back
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Left Back
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Central Midfield
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard Right Back
32
Danilo Cataldi
Danilo Cataldi Central Midfield
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Right Back

CONCLUSION

Lazio enters this fixture with a stronger pre-match profile, holding a structural power advantage of 3.6 points over Fiorentina. Despite this baseline superiority and a higher league position, the market probabilities favor the home side. Fiorentina registers as the market leader with a 42.1 percent probability of victory, while a draw is set at 30.2 percent and a Lazio win at 27.7 percent. As a result, the structural data and market signals explicitly diverge. Both squads share identical recent form records of three wins, two draws, and one loss, pointing to a closely contested match. Maintaining strict defensive organization and executing efficiently during midfield transitions will ultimately determine the outcome.