Almería vs Real Sociedad II preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 29 Mar - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II
KICKOFF : Sun, 29 Mar - 7:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Almería host Real Sociedad II in La Liga 2 (Regular Season) at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. Domestically, Almería sit 2th in the table while Real Sociedad II are 13th. Power ranking favours Almería by 12.4 points heading into this fixture. Almería's recent form reads W4 D1 L1 from 6 matches; Real Sociedad II's form is W4 D0 L2 from 6 matches. In their last outing, Almería Loss away against Real Zaragoza. Real Sociedad II last played at home versus Granada, finishing with a Loss.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Almería hold a +12.4 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Real Sociedad II are in line with baseline; recent form is evenly matched.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Almería show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Almería have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Almería carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Almería hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Almería 59.2% (Δ-0.5%) | Draw 23% (Δ+0.3%) | Real Sociedad II 17.8% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Real Sociedad II J. Ansotegi Gorostola
J. Ansotegi Gorostola
1.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza Rank: 57 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 W
Albacete Rank: 67 D
Córdoba Rank: 62 W
FC Andorra Rank: 61 W
Cádiz Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 66 L
Córdoba Rank: 63 W
Castellón Rank: 67 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 L
Cádiz Rank: 61 W
Málaga Rank: 69 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
59.22%
Draw
22.98%
Away Real Sociedad II
17.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Almería
-0.47%
Draw
+0.26%
Real Sociedad II
+0.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.39
58.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Real Sociedad II
Power Score
70.39
58.01
League Position
2
13
Global Rank
187
383

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Sociedad II — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Real Sociedad II

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
3 matches
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
7
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-26T00:04:41+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
1 A. Fernández Moreno
M. Ruiz
16 M. Ruiz
R. Ely
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
D. Lopy
17 D. Lopy
S. Dzodic
29 S. Dzodic
A. Puigmal Martínez
2 A. Puigmal Martínez
S. Arribas Calvo
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
A. Fraga Torres
1 A. Fraga Torres
U. Agote Aranburu
23 U. Agote Aranburu
K. Kita
15 K. Kita
L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
4 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
A. Dadie Izagirre
22 A. Dadie Izagirre
J. Nguono Ochieng
11 J. Nguono Ochieng
I. Aguirre Basurko
31 I. Aguirre Basurko
T. Carbonell Del Rio
14 T. Carbonell Del Rio
D. Díaz Gándara
7 D. Díaz Gándara
M. Rodriguez Ulacia
8 M. Rodriguez Ulacia
A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
10 A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 29, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Centre Forward
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal Right Wing
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Attacking Midfield
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Right Back
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Left Back
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Defensive Midfield
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Right Back
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Left Back
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Left Wing
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic Defensive Midfield

Starting XI ▼

1
Aitor Fraga
Aitor Fraga Goalkeeper
7
Dani Díaz
Dani Díaz Midfielder
11
Job Ochieng
Job Ochieng Midfielder
8
Mikel Rodriguez
Mikel Rodriguez Attacker
10
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Attacker
4
Luken Beitia
Luken Beitia Right Back
14
Tomy Carbonell
Tomy Carbonell Central Midfield
15
Kazunari Kita
Kazunari Kita Left Back
23
Unax Agote
Unax Agote Left Back
22
Alberto Dadie
Alberto Dadie Right Back
31
Ibai Aguirre Basurco
Ibai Aguirre Basurco Central Midfield

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Almería holding the stronger pre-match profile. The power-ranking gap of 12.4 points supports that view. Market sentiment broadly aligns with the underlying data —Almería at 59.2%, draw at 23%, Real Sociedad II at 17.8%— leaving the balance of play dependent on execution, set pieces, and transitions rather than variance alone. Both sides will need to convert their chances to decide the outcome.