Sarmiento vs Estudiantes preview

Argentina flag 2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina
Estadio Eva Perón de Junín
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
SarmientoSARM
2 0
EstudiantesEST
Full Time
Round 6 2nd Phase
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Sarmiento defeated Estudiantes 2-0 at home with the halftime score at 1-0. Estudiantes controlled 76 percent of possession and posted 1.72 expected goals yet failed to convert chances. Sarmiento operated with 24 percent possession and 1.55 expected goals while scoring twice through clinical finishing. The stronger side on paper could not overcome the hosts' performance deviation. No red cards occurred and the match remained eleven versus eleven. The outcome diverged from expected goals but stayed consistent with other indicators. Sarmiento's win demonstrated how lower possession sides can prevail when efficiency aligns with opportunities created.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Sarmiento 2-0 Estudiantes. Sarmiento showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result was not consistent with the expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with the market alignment indicator.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals favored Estudiantes at 1.72 against Sarmiento's 1.55.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the expected flow beyond the goals scored.
  • Red card distortion: The absence of red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Lamolina
N. Lamolina
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Mamani
J. Mamani
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Núñez
I. Núñez
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Barrios
J. Barrios
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Sarmiento F. Sava
F. Sava
VS
Estudiantes A. Medina Reobasco
A. Medina Reobasco
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huracán Rank: 65 W
Atlético Tucumán Rank: 62 W
Independiente Rivadavia Rank: 73 W
Banfield Rank: 59 L
Argentinos Juniors Rank: 71 L
Belgrano Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gimnasia La Plata Rank: 66 W
Deportivo Riestra Rank: 60 L
Boca Juniors Rank: 72 L
Defensa y Justicia Rank: 62 W
Independiente Rank: 66 L
Racing Club Rank: 67 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.65
68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sarmiento
Estudiantes
Power Score
60.65
68
League Position
11
11
Global Rank
520
300

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sarmiento — Opponent-weighted form score
Estudiantes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sarmiento Estudiantes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sarmiento

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estudiantes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sarmiento ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estudiantes
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.71
28.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.49
52.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sarmiento +2.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Estudiantes -2.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sarmiento
Estudiantes
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sarmiento
vs
Estudiantes
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sarmiento Estudiantes
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
9%
59%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.14 vs -1.02
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sarmiento Estudiantes
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
59%
9%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-1.02 vs -0.14
Sarmiento
Estudiantes
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sarmiento
vs
Estudiantes
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sarmiento Estudiantes
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sarmiento 0.33
Estudiantes 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sarmiento Estudiantes
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sarmiento 0.00
Estudiantes 0.06
Sarmiento
Estudiantes
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • EST had peak pressure around 95'.
  • EST started the game with stronger pressure.
SARM Pressure EST Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: EST reached the top pressure at 95' (73.57).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sarmiento SARM Home
2 matches
Estudiantes EST Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-24T00:15:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Argentina · Round 6 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Estadio Eva Perón de Junín
Capacity
22000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nicolás Lamolina
Juan Mamani
Iván Núñez
Jonathan Barrios

Statistics

Possession
SARM
31%
EST
69%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 9
33 Dangerous attacks 53
24 Possession 76
3 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

45 Ball Safe 68
0 Penalties 1
15 Goal Kicks 7
8 Goal Attempts 10
4 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 21
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Assists 0
13 Dribble Attempts 20
5 Successful Dribbles 10
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

47 Attacks 135
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

70 Long Passes 74
179 Passes 579
105 Successful Passes 511
59 Successful Passes Percentage 88
8 Key Passes 12
31 Successful Long Passes 50
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 68

Defensive

6 Saves 3
18 Tackles 13
6 Interceptions 4
48 Duels Won 49

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 25
3 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
17 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Nicolás Lamolina

Starting XI ▼

12
Thyago Ayala
Thyago Ayala Goalkeeper
8.35
2
Juan Manuel Insaurralde
Juan Manuel Insaurralde (C) Defender
6.69
3
Lucas Suárez
Lucas Suárez Defender
7.18
8
Santiago Salle
Santiago Salle Defender
6.57
44
Renzo Orihuela
Renzo Orihuela Defender
6.46
15
Cristian Zabala
Cristian Zabala Midfielder
7
16
Mauricio Martínez
Mauricio Martínez Midfielder
7.38
19
Julián Contrera
Julián Contrera Midfielder
6.48
20
Ulises Giménez
Ulises Giménez
Defender58'
6.63
21
Julián Mavilla
Julián Mavilla Midfielder
7.05
11
Gastón González
Gastón González
Attacker68'
6.51
24
Jonathan Herrera
Jonathan Herrera Attacker
6.68
9
Diego Churín
Diego Churín
Attacker67'
6.83
27
Junior Marabel
Junior Marabel Attacker
7.27
6
Gastón Arturia
Gastón Arturia
Defender81'
6.52
Referee : Nicolás Lamolina

Starting XI ▼

16
Fernando Muslera
Fernando Muslera Goalkeeper
7.15
20
Eric Meza
Eric Meza Defender
6.49
40
Eros Mancuso
Eros Mancuso
Defender46'
6.77
24
Tomás Palacios
Tomás Palacios Defender
6.67
35
Valente Pierani
Valente Pierani Defender
6.81
36
Joaquín Pereyra
Joaquín Pereyra Defender
6.67
7
José Sosa
José Sosa
Midfielder65'
6.58
21
Ezequiel Piovi
Ezequiel Piovi Midfielder
7.65
22
Alexis Castro
Alexis Castro Midfielder
6.93
9
Guido Carrillo
Guido Carrillo
Attacker75'
6.33
28
Brian Aguirre
Brian Aguirre Midfielder
6.87
17
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Attacker65'
6.59
29
Fabricio Pérez
Fabricio Pérez Midfielder
6.23
18
Edwuin Cetré
Edwuin Cetré
Attacker46'
7.35
32
Joaquín Correa
Joaquín Correa (C) Midfielder
6.72
27
Lucas Alario
Lucas Alario Attacker
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Eros Mancuso
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Joaquín Correa
Off target
85'
Event
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Penalty awarded
82'
Event
Joaquín Correa
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Gastón Arturia → Junior Marabel
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Gastón González
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
75'
Event
Guido Carrillo → Alexis Castro
8th Substitution
Event
Gastón González → Julián Mavilla
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Diego Churín → Jonathan Herrera
6th Substitution
67'
65'
Event
Joaquín Tobio Burgos → Brian Aguirre
4th Substitution
65'
Event
José Sosa → Joaquín Pereyra
5th Substitution
Event
Ulises Giménez → Julián Contrera
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Lucas Suárez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
54'
46'
Event
Edwuin Cetré → Fabricio Pérez
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Eros Mancuso → Eric Meza
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Joaquín Pereyra
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Julián Contrera
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Mauricio Martínez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
18'
6'
Event
Lucas Alario
Argument / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Diego Churin Puyo takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 2-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Edwin Steven Cetre Angulo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Joaquin Correa takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
86
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Joaquin Correa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty awarded to Joaquin Tobio Burgos.
84
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Tobio Burgos takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Carlos Joaquin Correa receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Gaston Arturia comes on for Junior Marabel.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Gaston Gonzalez with his left foot results in a goal.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gaston Gonzalez scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Junior Marabel.
79
Attempt Attempt
Guido Marcelo Carrillo's header is saved.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Update Update
Guido Marcelo Carrillo is on, and Alexis Castro is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Junior Marabel attempts a header but misses the shot.
71
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Palacios takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
68
Update Update
Gaston Gonzalez replaces Julian Mavilla.
67
Update Update
Diego Churin Puyo comes on for Jonathan Carlos Herrera.
65
Update Update
Joaquin Tobio Burgos comes on for Brian Nicolas Aguirre.
65
Substitution Substitution
Jose Ernesto Sosa is substituted for Joaquin Pereyra.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Alexis Castro with his right foot is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Carlos Herrera takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Junior Marabel takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Ulises Gimenez is on, and Julian Contrera is off.
57
Substitution Substitution
Ulises Gimenez is substituted off for Julian Contrera.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Lucas Suarez.
53
Attempt Attempt
Valente Pierani's right-footed shot is saved.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Attempt Attempt
Edwin Steven Cetre Angulo takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Edwin Steven Cetre Angulo comes on for Fabricio Perez.
46
Update Update
Eros Nazareno Mancuso comes on for Eric Meza.
45
Attempt Attempt
Julian Mavilla takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Castro takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Fabricio Perez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Junior Marabel attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Carlos Herrera takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
43
Update Update
Offside.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Joaquin Pereyra.
39
Update Update
Offside.
37
Attempt Attempt
Brian Nicolas Aguirre takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Attempt Attempt
Fabricio Perez takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Pereyra takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Carlos Herrera takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Julian Contrera receives a yellow card.
22
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Castro takes a left-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mauricio Martinez with his right foot finds the back of the net.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mauricio Martinez scores, making it 1-0.
16
Attempt Attempt
Joaquin Pereyra takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Eric Meza takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
6
Attempt Attempt
Brian Nicolas Aguirre takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
6
Attempt Attempt
Eric Meza takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Lucas Alario.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Nicolas Lamolina.

CONCLUSION

Sarmiento secured a 2-0 victory that defied the expected goals edge held by Estudiantes. Lower possession did not prevent the home side from capitalizing on limited opportunities. The halftime lead of 1-0 was preserved through disciplined defending and timely second-half finishing. Estudiantes dominated territory yet lacked the efficiency needed to equalize. Absence of red cards kept the contest balanced in numbers throughout. The result underscores how structural deviations can override possession statistics when finishing proves decisive. Sarmiento's performance delivered a clear example of outcome divergence from underlying metrics while remaining aligned on other measures.